If we vote for Brexit what happens

vivatifosi

michaels wrote: »

Angela Eagle had a lot to say about import issues to the decision such as internal tory party politics (wry smile smilie). Why is it poiticians, even when debating matters likely to have a profound national impact for years to come, can not see beyond the ends of their noses and narrow party point scoring. With this decision I care not at all where parties or individual party members stand.

I am feeling a bit let down by the two main political parties at the moment. One can't lead his own party and has a bunch of people with their eye on the prize of next leader. The other has a leader that would rather debate nuclear proliferation. I have no idea what to think about the LibDems, they appear to have disappeared totally.

I have little faith in this shower to get us a good deal should we Brexit.

At the same time, we have two out campaigns which can't agree with each other, plus an in campaign that deals in negatives not positives. It's a bit carp all round really.

ash28

michaels wrote: »

I know the debate on here is rather sterile because at least among the posters I appear to be the only undecided but I liked this piece from IDS (I know)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35681525

I liked it because it contained some positive campaigning, generally all we get from the out camp is the threat of immigrants takig over the country and from the in camp the risk of economic meltdown. Surely both sides can articulate a positive view of the future?

Angela Eagle had a lot to say about import issues to the decision such as internal tory party politics (wry smile smilie). Why is it poiticians, even when debating matters likely to have a profound national impact for years to come, can not see beyond the ends of their noses and narrow party point scoring. With this decision I care not at all where parties or individual party members stand.

My feet are firmly in the undecided camp too. If you had asked me 5 or 6 years ago I would have been voting to stay in. Now i'm not sure.

In a lot of ways the rhetoric coming out of both camps is reminiscent of Scotland's referendum on independence.

I understand the economic arguments but decent figures are difficult to come by, I guess because any economic out come is going to be dependant on any negotiated exit deal in the event of an out vote. It's all speculation at the moment regardless of what anyone says.

One of my concerns is the lack of democracy in the EU, I'm thinking of Italy and Greece where both had a technocrat parachuted in as Prime Minister when things seemed to be getting out of hand as far as the EU/ECB/IMF were concerned, with Italian bond spreads and the Greek PM's proposed a referendum on austerity. That was back in 2011 but it did leave quite a lasting impression on me.

Again, on the democracy side, the EU is a political project of which we are a member state and our own laws and parliamentary democracy are subservient to it. And that does bother me.

I dare say I'll make my mind up at some point in the next couple of months....unless they put a "don't know" on the ballot paper.

gfplux

I have seen a number of posters mention an "exit deal"
What is that?
I thought we just tell the EU we are leaving, then we have two years to do what?

antrobus

gfplux wrote: »

I have seen a number of posters mention an "exit deal"
What is that?
I thought we just tell the EU we are leaving, then we have two years to do what?

A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention... the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.....The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification .... unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

Article 50 Lisbon Treaty

The UK signed the Lisbon Treaty.

BobQ

antrobus wrote: »

ONS.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/womeninthelabourmarket/2013-09-25

See, not only can I find my own sources, I can find other people's as well.:)

I would have tried but since prosaver cannot be bothered to support his own statistics I figured I had better things to do!:)

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

I liked it because it contained some positive campaigning, generally all we get from the out camp is the threat of immigrants takig over the country and from the in camp the risk of economic meltdown. Surely both sides can articulate a positive view of the future?

Angela Eagle had a lot to say about import issues to the decision such as internal tory party politics (wry smile smilie). Why is it poiticians, even when debating matters likely to have a profound national impact for years to come, can not see beyond the ends of their noses and narrow party point scoring. With this decision I care not at all where parties or individual party members stand.

I agree with you. Debate is really suffering. Last week's QT was just full of impassioned rants, no attempt to seek common ground on the issues or to help understanding.

Ms Eagle is of course right that the debate is largely being driven by the divisions in the Conservative ranks, but she probably did not need to say it. That said Julian Fellows on QT was complaining to Diane Abbott about the failure of Labour to present both sides of the argument on Brexit, which was a bit rich since the EU is about the only issue on which Labour is relatively united!

BobQ

gfplux wrote: »

I have seen a number of posters mention an "exit deal"
What is that?
I thought we just tell the EU we are leaving, then we have two years to do what?

This is the problem, people do think it is simple. It is not, and it will incur significant costs for the UK.

Our relationship with the EU is intricate and complex and the whole thing needs to be disentangled. Two years may be sufficient or it may not but as Antrobus quotes that is what the treaty says.

Some of the main issues are discussed here:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7213/CBP-7213.pdf

So we do not automatically become members of the EEA or EFTA, and currently we have no trade agreements with anyone apart from as part of the EU. So we would need to negotiate lots of trade agreements with all the nations we want. Do we even have any national expertise in negotiating trade agreements?

We all have EU passports, what would happen to these? What rights would EU nationals residing in the UK have or indeed Brits in Spain? Many people were born in the EU, what rights do they retain?

In short there are loads of issues that will take time to resolve.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

since the EU is about the only issue on which Labour is relatively united!

Seems as if Labour is simply avoiding debating the issue. I'm assuming that to do so would alienate core support. As it's core support who will feel the full brunt of open immigration policy. Not those living in leafy suburbs.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

This is the problem, people do think it is simple. It is not, and it will incur significant costs for the UK.

Our relationship with the EU is intricate and complex and the whole thing needs to be disentangled. Two years may be sufficient or it may not but as Antrobus quotes that is what the treaty says.

Some of the main issues are discussed here:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7213/CBP-7213.pdf

So we do not automatically become members of the EEA or EFTA, and currently we have no trade agreements with anyone apart from as part of the EU. So we would need to negotiate lots of trade agreements with all the nations we want. Do we even have any national expertise in negotiating trade agreements?

We all have EU passports, what would happen to these? What rights would EU nationals residing in the UK have or indeed Brits in Spain? Many people were born in the EU, what rights do they retain?

In short there are loads of issues that will take time to resolve.

I would take the view that the treaty says .......

...The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification .... unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

Article 50 Lisbon Treaty

which clearly leaves a lot of ambiguity and certainly doesn't mean 2 years from 'when'

I'm sure the EU will do what it perceives in its own best interest: who knows, that may even mean they would not wish to create un-necessary unemployment for the own citizens.

I do admit that, give their appalling track record on the euro and their continuing mis-management of the euro, then nothing can be guaranteed.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

Where have I heard this before?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35680760

Looks like it will be rejected.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35680760
Good.
Distasteful poster by the way. A white sheep kicking a black sheep out of the country? Really?