If we vote for Brexit what happens

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

it is almost 100% certain that in the short term, the overall price of a person's basket of goods and services will rise.
In the longer terms then we may be all as poor as Germany that has 'suffered' from a low exchange rate for the last 15 or so years.

As I have repeatedly said, I consider the devaluation as inevitable : I place no moral valuation on inevitabality. I consider it neither 'good' nor 'bad' but given it will happen, then I would prefer it happened before our debt rose even more and before we have sold off even more of our future revenue streams and sold even more of our businesses.

It must be nice despite asking what the correct value of the pound should be in an ironic whilst knowing the correct answer already.

I think people voted to pay more for their goods and services and there was no inevitability of a sterling crash. I hope they think it's worth it.

CLAPTON wrote: »

as I have already said that is an entirely logical possibility.
I would be interested to know of any evidence that this is actually happening.

Early days. If we expect reduced numbers of immigrants, an increase in productivity and an economy which adds more value to it's manufactures then some businesses will fail and new ones will need to be created. Some of the those businesses will be exported as well as, presumably, some of their goods and services.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

Greg Clark was discussing his letters to Nissan on Marr show. Its interesting that they are prepared to tell Nissan what their negotiating position is on Brexit, but not willing to tell MPs or the public.

Hardly a negotiating position. Car exports are equally if not more important for the EU. Ford the UK's top selling manufacturer. Produces engines in the UK, nothing else. All completed vehicles are reimported. Nor forget that Nissan has an alliance with Renault. The president of Nissan used to be an executive of BMW. Small world when it comes to the largest global manufacturers.

BobQ

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Why should it be a promise though?

Sunderland voted themselves out of jobs, so should be left to get on with it.

Thinking about it he did not say "promise" (I think that was Marr in his question). He used a more euphemistic phrase "industrial strategy" I think! So they will grease the wheels to enable firms to set up in the area.

Your last point is quite contentious but I cannot disagree with the proposal.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

Your last point is quite contentious but I cannot disagree with the proposal.

you have all the usual generousity of spirit associated with the left

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Sunderland voted themselves out of jobs, so should be left to get on with it.

What utter nonsense. There's probably a 250,000 people hoping that your business fails as well if that's your attitude.

mrginge

BobQ wrote: »

Greg Clark was discussing his letters to Nissan on Marr show. Its interesting that they are prepared to tell Nissan what their negotiating position is on Brexit, but not willing to tell MPs or the public.

Subsidising the transfer of supply chain to the Sunderland hinterland seemed to be one of the promises.

So we go from moaning about there being no plan, to moaning when it turns out the government has a plan.

Thrugelmir

mrginge wrote: »

So we go from moaning about there being no plan, to moaning when it turns out the government has a plan.

That's all the UK seems to do these moan. Rather than every individual doing their bit to make the place better. What happened to the Dunkirk spirit?

CKhalvashi

BobQ wrote: »

Your last point is quite contentious but I cannot disagree with the proposal.

Crew from a certain airline keep moaning that their jobs could be unsafe, due to the said airline Irish and having crews at UK bases, same with airport workers from the same airport.

When I tried to mention before the referendum that their jobs are possibly dependent partly on EU law, I was told I'm speaking rubbish and they should vote leave. I think the same about those crews, because they didn't listen to what they were told, not just by me, but by another Remain campaigner, and the lack of answers from a Leave campaigner.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What utter nonsense. There's probably a 250,000 people hoping that your business fails as well if that's your attitude.

That's fine. I'll be a victim of being cursed with a government I don't want, didn't vote for and campaigned against, paired with a referendum result that I don't want, didn't vote for and campaigned against.

Right now, leaving isn't the issue, I have a huge mistrust in the government to get what's right right for now, and then review that when the time comes.

CLAPTON

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Crew from a certain airline keep moaning that their jobs could be unsafe, due to the said airline Irish and having crews at UK bases, same with airport workers from the same airport.

When I tried to mention before the referendum that their jobs are possibly dependent partly on EU law, I was told I'm speaking rubbish and they should vote leave. I think the same about those crews, because they didn't listen to what they were told, not just by me, but by another Remain campaigner, and the lack of answers from a Leave campaigner.



That's fine. I'll be a victim of being cursed with a government I don't want, didn't vote for and campaigned against, paired with a referendum result that I don't want, didn't vote for and campaigned against.

Right now, leaving isn't the issue, I have a huge mistrust in the government to get what's right right for now, and then review that when the time comes.

yes, some people find democracy deeply troubling

buglawton

ruperts wrote: »

There's a lot of love for repatriating manufacturing among brexiters but I don't know why. Unless they think that by getting our sock factories back it'll be just like it was in 1950 and they'll be in their teens again. The reality is that modern mass manufacturing employs barely any people and those jobs it does create are mostly minimum wage. In addition it's a dying industry which will be replaced completely replaced in years to come. Basing our future economy on that seems like utter stupidity to me.

Behind every highly automated factory is a huge array of sub-services as well as an (often also automated) supply chain from other automated factories. There's a lot value and money in that back end. You might also like to explain why a 'barely any people' factory turns out cars at £20k a pop yet is only marginally profitable.

The real question is, what proportion of the total value chain creates well paid jobs in the UK?

The Chinese have discovered that to produce world class goods they need to import Japanese, German and Swiss machinery. Those 3 countries in particular seem to understand the value of being quite high up the value chain in good old manufacturing.