If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

cells wrote: »

China is not a bubble people have been calling it such for a decade while its nominal GDP has gone from ~$2T to ~$10T

China will go to ~$20T by 2025 which means nominal wealth and incomes will at least double again.

China's issue is debt, over 282% of GDP. Non performing loans represent over 12% of GDP. There's nothing magical to behold. Just another bubble.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

China is not a bubble people have been calling it such for a decade while its nominal GDP has gone from ~$2T to ~$10T

China will go to ~$20T by 2025 which means nominal wealth and incomes will at least double again.

The big story for the world and more so for the UK is going to be India circa 2020-2050 at which point its going to be as china was in 2005-2035

London can continue as an expensive global city selling flats to rich foreigners for £5m a go to the benefit of the whole uk for at least the next two generations. For some reason you dont want that and feel we need to have a lower standard of life

I am delighted if foreigners want to buy £5 million flats in a small part of london : whatever gave you the idea I was against that?
Not wanting to limit trade to white, christian european countries, I am equally happy for chinese, indians africans or any other nationality to buy at the top end of the market.
my concerns with the London/SE housing market is the availability of family sized homes for people of the UK.
I think you confuse me with the racist remainers who wish to discriminate against so many of the world.

cells

Thrugelmir wrote: »

China's issue is debt, over 282% of GDP. Non performing loans represent over 12% of GDP. There's nothing magical to behold. Just another bubble.

I dont really care about any of that stuff, I care about the fact that they have now far more hydro-power plants, nuclear plants, wind farms, factories, homes, apartments, shopping centers, warehouses, supercomputers, universities, hospitals, roads, rails, airports, ports, ships, war machines, space industry, tech industry, patents, oil fields, gas fields, coal fields, knowledge and so on

none of those will disappear no matter what the number on a stock exchange in London or Beijing says

kabayiri

cells wrote: »

...
London can continue as an expensive global city selling flats to rich foreigners for £5m a go to the benefit of the whole uk for at least the next two generations. For some reason you dont want that and feel we need to have a lower standard of life

What's the point of one part of the UK going from strength to strength if at the same time there is mass political dissatisfaction in the poorer regions?

We should know by now that disenfranchised voters are unpredictable.

How do you work out the economic cost of a populist party sweeping to power by mobilising the masses? It's happened before in the world.

cells

kabayiri wrote: »

What's the point of one part of the UK going from strength to strength if at the same time there is mass political dissatisfaction in the poorer regions?

We should know by now that disenfranchised voters are unpredictable.

How do you work out the economic cost of a populist party sweeping to power by mobilising the masses? It's happened before in the world.

rich people buying a £10m property in London and paying £1.3 million in stamp duty are not harming the people of stoke-on-trent they are greatly helping them

Herzlos

Have they closed that corporations loophole that allows the ultra-rich to dodge stamp duty by selling the holding company and not the property?

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

already starting but will get a lot worse once the Chinese bubble is pricked and the flow of yuan starts drying up.

Humans have been forecasting doom and gloom since they started roaming the Earth but through millennia many more generations have enjoyed improving lifestyles than haven't.

If the timescale to the 'bad things' happening is long enough and the bad things are unspecified there comes a point where there's little point worrying about it.

CLAPTON wrote: »

you of course will balme it on brexit and the thread posed by trading with black africa on an equal basis with the EU

I'm sure you believe boom and bust has been abolished by that nice Mr Brown but I doubt that : in the bad times to come a nice steady stream of foreign dividends would have come in handy

Ironic given your partisan position and the certainty you'll blame no negative outcomes on Brexit.

Boom and bust seems to be natural way of things but here we are - everyone living in the UK today enjoys a standard of living that NO previous generations have enjoyed.

kabayiri

cells wrote: »

rich people buying a £10m property in London and paying £1.3 million in stamp duty are not harming the people of stoke-on-trent they are greatly helping them

It's a PR issue then, because the people of Stoke on Trent don't see it that way.

They do remember being told that 'globalisation' is the only way.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Humans have been forecasting doom and gloom since they started roaming the Earth but through millennia many more generations have enjoyed improving lifestyles than haven't.

If the timescale to the 'bad things' happening is long enough and the bad things are unspecified there comes a point where there's little point worrying about it.

you are confusing me with the remainers who believe that the UK will suffer greatly due to brexit: £66b, WW3, recession huge job loses etc)
I share your view the future is bright and beautiful and we will stay one of the richest countries in the world for many years yet whether we stay or go.

My concerns are rich peoples concerns and about how we can make things even better.

So we are discussing a percent or two or three on growth plus or minus a bit.

The current level of consumption is based on foreign borrowings and selling off our assets : the pain we will feel is via a lower pound and the associated knock on effects; maybe this will lead to a rise in unemployment; lower house prices will be a bonus of course.

Ironic given your partisan position and the certainty you'll blame no negative outcomes on Brexit.

I fully accept there are negative outcomes of brexit that I regret, but the lower value of the pound was inevitable. The spark was provided by brexit but it was due at some time fairly soon.

Boom and bust seems to be natural way of things but here we are - everyone living in the UK today enjoys a standard of living that NO previous generations have enjoyed.

absolutely ...but it would be better if young people in London and the SE could live in family sized houses.

I would of course, prefer a less racist EU and one driven by the welfare of its people rather than dogmatic politics but that isn't going to happen any day soon

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

you are confusing me with the remainers who believe that the UK will suffer greatly due to brexit: £66b, WW3, recession huge job loses etc)
I share your view the future is bright and beautiful and we will stay one of the richest countries in the world for many years yet whether we stay or go.

My concerns are rich peoples concerns and about how we can make things even better.

So we are discussing a percent or two or three on growth plus or minus a bit.

The current level of consumption is based on foreign borrowings and selling off our assets : the pain we will feel is via a lower pound and the associated knock on effects; maybe this will lead to a rise in unemployment; lower house prices will be a bonus of course.

I fully accept there are negative outcomes of brexit that I regret, but the lower value of the pound was inevitable. The spark was provided by brexit but it was due at some time fairly soon.

absolutely ...but it would be better if young people in London and the SE could live in family sized houses.

I would of course, prefer a less racist EU and one driven by the welfare of its people rather than dogmatic politics but that isn't going to happen any day soon

We're entering into a cut and paste bore fest but I would point out I don't predict we'll be £66bn worse off, nor will there be WW3 etc. and I voted remain. It's just part of your narrative.

and yes I do think/ hope things will continue to improve for the UK albeit at a slower pace as a result of Brexit. The next 5 years are going to be where there's most danger as the effects of the uncertainty work through.

and family sized houses for young people in the SE? Sorry, you'll need to read a long way down my priority list before you find that. Irrelevant in terms of considering whether to leave the EU IMO. Of course some might have different priorities and different ideas about just how much Brexit might affect house prices in Maidstone.