If we vote for Brexit what happens

Yamumuk

The more I read as the s*** storm deepens the more the Brexit voters show their true colours as selfish people who care about no one except themselves. I always knew it but it is interesting seeing them twist and turn to try and justify every bit of bad news that will appear.

They will never change because people who blame others simply will continue to do so in more obscure and stranger depths to justify their "losses". I for one an so glad my existence is not based on greed and a sense of being hard done by. When you know what wealth really is you pity these people as they will never know what happiness is.

And May is showing herself to be a stubborn fool by saying... "There is a cliff over there... we can discuss the journey to the cliff but we are going over the cliff irrelevant of what is said."

High end democracy in action.

setmefree2

House prices rise for second month in September, London weak - RICS

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-housing-idUKKCN12C2PS

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

The devaluation is necessary and desirable. The pound is now near 'fair value' based on the real effective exchange rate used by the International Monetary Fund.

Post event rationalisation.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

in general, selling assets means one losses the income that flows from those assets for ever.
It doesn't suggest a good long term strategy.
But taking your usual 1000 year view, I guess it doesn't matter.

you need to define sustainable or not, we can not look 1000 years to the future nor should we look out just 1 year. I would say 20-30 years if it can work for that amount of time it is sustainable.

There is no reason the UK could not build and sell off expensive flats in central London for the next 20-30 years so it is sustainable.

Making money selling multi-million pound flats is more productive and makes us richer than selling spuds to the irish and cheese to the french and it is sustainable

These flats are not income generating assets people dont let them out and there isnt a market for such rentals in large numbers but there is for sales.

prosaver

project fear ..this ones funny.. ha ha

The end of Western civilisation

European Council president Donald Tusk prompted widespread derision when he suggested the UK quitting the Brussels club could trigger the 'end of Western political civilisation'.

In an interview with German newspaper Bild, he said: 'As a historian I fear Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also Western political civilisation in its entirety.'

Even Downing Street appeared slightly embarrassed by the claim, with Prime Minister David Cameron's spokesman saying: 'We will leave Donald Tusk to speak for himself.'

So far Western civilisation does not seem to have been significantly affected.

cells

Conrad wrote: »

Brilliant piece from the Telegraph as to the vital need for devaluation;

The devaluation is necessary and desirable. The pound is now near 'fair value' based on the real effective exchange rate used by the International Monetary Fund.

All that has happened is a correction of the extreme over-valuation of sterling before Brexit, caused by capital inflows. This left the country with the worst current account deficit in peace-time since records began in the 18th Century.

The fall is roughly comparable to the devaluation from 2007 to 2008 - though the same financial elites who talk so much of Armageddon today played it down on that occasion, mindful that their own banking crisis was the trigger.

We can argue over how much the 2008 devaluation helped but it clearly acted as shock absorber at a crucial moment. It was in any case a far less painful way to restore short-term competitiveness than the 'internal devaluations' and mass unemployment suffered by the eurozone's Club Med bloc.

But there is a deeper point today that is often overlooked. Central banks across the developed world are caught in a deflationary trap. The 'Wicksellian' or natural rate of interest has been falling ever lower with each economic cycle and is now at or below zero in half the global economy, a full seven years into the expansion.

This paralyses monetary policy and has dark implications for the next downturn. It is why central banks are desperately trying to drive down their currencies to gain a little breathing room, or in the case of the US Federal Reserve to stop the dollar rising.

By the accident of Brexit, Britain has pulled off a Wicksellian adjustment that eludes others.

With luck, the economy may even generate a few flickers of inflation, enough to let the Bank of England raise interest rates and start to restore 'intertemporal' equilibrium.

Online and digital trade across borders remains minimal, riddled with barriers. Britain's All-Party Parliamentary Group for European Reform concluded that "there is no single market in services in any meaningful sense."

wage inflation would arguably be good, price inflation without wage inflation will just make us poorer

Conrad

Paul Krugman, the Nobel trade theorist, says the UK has been suffering from a variant of the "Dutch Disease", an over-reliance on finance that drove up pound and hollowed out manufacturing industries. This economic deformation has greatly enriched London's financial set and those who service its wealth, if non-one else.
The devaluation is necessary and desirable. The pound is now near 'fair value' based on the real effective exchange rate used by the International Monetary Fund.

Conrad

cells wrote: »

wage inflation would arguably be good, price inflation without wage inflation will just make us poorer

If we'd carried on with a massive unsustainable trade deficit, and economy reliant on mass imports and the rentier society with holders of capital the main beneficiary, wages would have remained far too low.


The whole point of the need to rebalance towards internal goods provision and exporting is to begin to address our sickly economy.


For example Dairy Farmers benefitting from a boost to UK ice cream manufacture at the expense of Ben & Jerries' imports we do not need (unless one is so selfish that the needs of British society come second to the need to buy anything we so desire)

fewgroats

wotsthat wrote: »

Post event rationalisation.

I hope so. I hope that Brexit wasn't all a conspiracy to devalue the pound.

cells

Conrad wrote: »

Paul Krugman, the Nobel trade theorist, says the UK has been suffering from a variant of the "Dutch Disease", an over-reliance on finance that drove up pound and hollowed out manufacturing industries. This economic deformation has greatly enriched London's financial set and those who service its wealth, if non-one else.
The devaluation is necessary and desirable. The pound is now near 'fair value' based on the real effective exchange rate used by the International Monetary Fund.

Manufacturing is going to become a smaller and smaller part of the economy and its workforce is going to become even smaller than that. I used to work at a steel plant where they had 30,000 men, when I left it was down to 2,500 but production was 3x higher than it was when the plant employed 30k people. In time I would expect a further 10x reduction in employment per unit of output. So one plant went from 30,000 to 2,500 and will go towards 250 for the newer plants.

The same is true for other sectors. Old coal plants had about 500 workers per GW while nuclear was about 1000 workers per GW while the new CCGTs are closer to 30-40 staff per GW that again is a more than 1/10th fall in manpower per unit of output


Manufacturing is not going to save us its a declining sector not because of the Chinese or Germans but because of machines and software