If we vote for Brexit what happens

wotsthat

Herzlos wrote: »

What are our predictions on fuel price changes, since oil is traded in USD and now 15% more expensive?

£1.50/ £1.60 per litre by the end of the year?

One of the few positives IMO of the weakening currency.

Herzlos

wotsthat wrote: »

£1.50/ £1.60 per litre by the end of the year?

One of the few positives IMO of the weakening currency.

Positive, in that it might encourage people to drive less?

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

People are fat, a chance to eat fewer imported calories perhaps

Agreed. A good opportunity to wean the brexit-voting toothless underclasses off their Pot Noodles and Ben&Jerry and move them onto a healthier diet of 100% British spuds, turnips and oats.
Rule Britannia!

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Sterling is traded by people putting their money where their mouth is. If you think Brexit triggered a sudden realisation among such traders on the 24th June that it was time to start pricing Sterling 'correctly' because of the trade deficit you're suffering from the worst case of confirmation bias I've ever seen. That's saying something given this board is the spiritual home for confirmation bias.

borrowing and selling assets is not a sustainable way of living well.
brexit was certainly the trigger that started the selling of sterling.
If you choose to think that this is sustainable then so beit.
Now that the correction has began I would like to see the lower pound until the trade balance becomes positive and we start to be a net acquirer of foreign assets rather than the opposite.
Recent history is stacked with examples of sudden changes that have been triggered by an event or two.

I'm not celebrating current account deficits or foreign dividend flows.

you have previously suggested that borrowing and selling assets is sustainable because the UK has a unique way of creating more assets to sell.

Maybe a case of your confirmation bias?
or maybe you have revised that view.

That and the crap about white Christians and Black Africans is just you telling yourself nice stories for reasons that make sense only to yourself.

Many people hold your protectionist views and so you are part of a large crowd although I disagree and favour free trade.
The fact that all your favourite trading partners and your favoured immigrants are all from white christian european countries is just a 'happy' co-incidence. Another confirmation bias maybe?

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

£1.50/ £1.60 per litre by the end of the year?

One of the few positives IMO of the weakening currency.

There are few positives to a weakening currency.

But then it's not all doom and gloom either since the trajectory is rarely one way over a sustained period of time. UAH in Ukraine has an ongoing civil war to contend with and within the last 12 months it's moved in from ~45 UAH : 1 GBP to 33 UAH : 1 GBP. We (UK) are a much stronger economy, a much richer economy. The impact will be felt, but it's not the coming apocalypse and it will blow over and stabilise in time. I'm sure I saw someone mention J curves?

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

£1.50/ £1.60 per litre by the end of the year?

One of the few positives IMO of the weakening currency.

Petrol price is mostly treasury fuel duty, which hasn't increased.

wotsthat

Rinoa wrote: »

Petrol price is mostly treasury fuel duty, which hasn't increased.

Of course but we're talking about the oil component of the price aren't we?

Prices fell from about £1.40 in January 2013 to about £1.14 now. That's a 26p difference and fuel duty, I think, is unchanged in that time i.e. if the oil component can lead to a 26p fall it can obviously lead to a 26p rise in the absence of duty changes.

Just playing with the numbers. Oil was c$100/ barrel at the start of 2013 and the exchange rate was about $1.58 so a barrel of oil cost £63/ barrel.

At $1:21 oil would only need to be $76 rather than $100 to have the same price effect.

Like I say I'm not worried as I see this as a positive but surprised Graham's not mentioned it.

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

There are few positives to a weakening currency.

But then it's not all doom and gloom either since the trajectory is rarely one way over a sustained period of time. UAH in Ukraine has an ongoing civil war to contend with and within the last 12 months it's moved in from ~45 UAH : 1 GBP to 33 UAH : 1 GBP. We (UK) are a much stronger economy, a much richer economy. The impact will be felt, but it's not the coming apocalypse and it will blow over and stabilise in time. I'm sure I saw someone mention J curves?

Sterling has weakened post referendum against an Eastern European country's currency where there's a civil war. Good to know.

I think there's a similar story in Turkey where there's been an attempted coup and a huge purge is currently underway. The Turkish Lira has strengthened over Sterling.

To be clear I'm not predicting an apocalypse but there do seem to be some who think the mere fact of avoiding apocalypse will be proof that the remainiacs got it wrong and Brexit is super.

Conrad

Big business letter urging Govt to join the Euro, 2003;

Dear Mr Blair

We are writing to make clear our concerns about the implications for business if the Government rules out membership of the euro for the lifetime of this parliament.

Such a decision would be damaging for British-based businesses, British employees and the British economy as a whole....

....The weight of independent economic evidence suggests that the conditions for entry are right. Commercial reality strongly dictates that the risks of staying outside the euro far outweigh any risks of joining. The European single market has moved on and we are no longer full members. We hope that the Government will have the courage of its convictions and recognise that membership of the euro is in our long-term national interest. To do otherwise would have serious consequences for Britain's future prosperity.

Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge, Chair, Britain in Europe.
Nicholas Brookes*, Chief Executive, Spirent.
Martin Broughton, Chairman, British American Tobacco.
Dinesh Dhamija, Chairman, ebookers.
Vernon Ellis*, International Chair, Accenture.
Sir Richard Evans, Chairman, BAE Systems.
Niall FitzGerald, Chairman, Unilever.
Sir Chris Gent*, Chief Executive, Vodafone Group.
Robert Guy, Adviser to the Board, N.M. Rothschild & Sons; Chair, The City in Europe.
Lord Hollick, CEO, United Business Media.
Johannes Huth, Managing Director, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts.
Sir Michael Jenkins*, President, Boeing UK.
David Jordan, Chairman & Managing Director, Philips Electronics UK.
The Rt. Hon Sir Richard Needham, Deputy Chair, Dyson; Vice Chair, NEC (Europe).
Anthony Nelson*, Vice Chairman, Citigroup; Chair, Gateway to London.
Sir Bryan Nicholson, former President, CBI 1994-96.
Sir Gulam Noon, Chairman & Managing Director, Noon Products.
John Porter, Chairman, Telos Group.
Mike Rake*, International Chairman, KPMG.
Sir Nick Scheele, President and Chief Operating Officer, Ford Motor Company.
Lord Simon of Highbury, former Chairman, BP; Vice-Chair, Britain in Europe.
Sir Martin Sorrell, Chief Executive, WPP Group.
Peter Sutherland*, former Director General, World Trade Organisation.
John Travers*, Senior Partner, Cushman & Wakefield Healey & Baker.
Robert van der Merwe, Group President, Kimberly-Clark (Europe).
Alan Wood, Chief Executive, Siemens.

However....

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

Sterling has weakened post referendum against an Eastern European country's currency where there's a civil war. Good to know.

I think there's a similar story in Turkey where there's been an attempted coup and a huge purge is currently underway. The Turkish Lira has strengthened over Sterling.

To be clear I'm not predicting an apocalypse but there do seem to be some who think the mere fact of avoiding apocalypse will be proof that the remainiacs got it wrong and Brexit is super.

No you've misunderstood, perhaps I wasn't clear.

Even with the fluctuations in the £ whilst I was there as recently as 2 weeks ago it's been between 33 and 35 UAH to 1 GBP (depending where you go for your UAH). The £ hasn't had the effect of the UAH bouncing back from, I think I'd need to double check, ~45 UAH : 1 GBP as little as 12 months ago. I certainly remember a recent visit to the in-laws where 1 of my £'s ended up translating into 40+ of theirs.

For comparison at the moment their fuel is about 20 - 23 UAH per litre. I've no idea what their duty is though.

But the point I was trying to shine a light on is that even with a civil war from 2014 - present, the currency bounces back. And if you've ever seen these post-soviet countries it's not like their infrastructure and economy is particularly good or robust. When I was there recently the mother in law (a teacher) wasn't getting paid her wages for the month from the government, the Ukrainian budget is that tight. Yet their currency is recovering from an absolutely dire position. That recovery had nothing to do with the weakening of the £, only minor recent fluctuations have.