If we vote for Brexit what happens

hildosaver

setmefree2 wrote: »

Bad news for some. Good news for others.

My American shares are suddenly worth a whole lot more.

Yes, the others mostly being foreign investers of course.

setmefree2

prosaver wrote: »

anyways im boycotting all Unilever stuff .. Tesco own brand of marmite taste the same anyway and its cheaper ..har har

So who's getting hurt the most at the moment? UK Exporters or EU
Exporters?

Rhetorical Question.

When Cameron and Osbourne talked about the DIY recession - I wonder if they meant the EU?

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

borrowing and selling assets is not a sustainable way of living well.
brexit was certainly the trigger that started the selling of sterling.
If you choose to think that this is sustainable then so beit.
Now that the correction has began I would like to see the lower pound until the trade balance becomes positive and we start to be a net acquirer of foreign assets rather than the opposite.
Recent history is stacked with examples of sudden changes that have been triggered by an event or two.

I think we both agree that the change in sterling was caused by people speculating in such matters assessing that Brexit was going to be bad for the UK. The change in Sterling may well improve the trade balance and that might be a good thing but that would be a by-product.

CLAPTON wrote: »

you have previously suggested that borrowing and selling assets is sustainable because the UK has a unique way of creating more assets to sell.

Maybe a case of your confirmation bias?
or maybe you have revised that view.

It's a suggestion/ thought rather than a deeply held view. You have previously noted that 'pain' is the inevitable consequence of running a negative trade balance (but not positive strangely). As you've also noted the UK has been on this path for some time and said (future) pain hasn't yet materialised so maybe creating new assets is a sustainable occupation for the UK? We've had comparatively some of the best living standards in the world for generations so, for now, you're on the wrong side of the argument.

CLAPTON wrote: »

Many people hold your protectionist views and so you are part of a large crowd although I disagree and favour free trade.
The fact that all your favourite trading partners and your favoured immigrants are all from white christian european countries is just a 'happy' co-incidence. Another confirmation bias maybe?

The voices are telling you those stories again.

hildosaver

setmefree2 wrote: »

So who's getting hurt the most at the moment? UK Exporters or EU
Exporters?

Rhetorical Question.

When Cameron and Osbourne talked about the DIY recession - I wonder if they meant the EU?

No idea, will be interesting to find out.

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

So who's getting hurt the most at the moment? UK Exporters or EU
Exporters?

UK consumers (you and I) are getting less choice and will have to pay more for the choice we do get.

..but EU exporters are selling less to the UK. Take that Johnny Foreigner!

Yamumuk

The disabled, incapacitated, unemployed and poorest in the UK asked me if Brexit voters would be as kind as to donate their unwanted food stuff to the food banks and also send them an extra £5.00 a week from their wages to cover the impending price increases caused by their selfish backward looking voting practices, thanks.. cheques not accepted, cash please.

Also I hope my supermarket is going to have BREXIT and REMAIN queues where BREXIT voters can pay the extra costs of imported food.

hildosaver

Yamumuk wrote: »

The disabled, incapacitated, unemployed and poorest in the UK asked me if Brexit voters would be as kind as to donate their unwanted food stuff to the food banks and also send them an extra £5.00 a week from their wages to cover the impending price increases caused by their selfish backward looking voting practices, thanks.. cheques not accepted, cash please.

Also I hope my supermarket is going to have BREXIT and REMAIN queues where BREXIT voters can pay the extra costs of imported food.

We are all in this together remember?

prosaver

Marmite is produced in a factory in Burton-upon-Trent in Staffordshire and it has been made there since 1902.

so its made in the UK ???

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/.../unilever-to-cut-200-jobs-in-the-netherlands...
10 Feb 2016 - Unilever is cutting 240 jobs in the Netherlands by shifting abroad some operations, particularly IT. Some 200 staff members will lose their jobs

umm

mayonnaise

setmefree2 wrote: »

When Cameron and Osbourne talked about the DIY recession - I wonder if they meant the EU?

I think they meant the UK.
What about you?

setmefree2 wrote: »

I do believe there will 100% be a recession if we vote Leave.

Conrad

Brilliant piece from the Telegraph as to the vital need for devaluation;

The devaluation is necessary and desirable. The pound is now near 'fair value' based on the real effective exchange rate used by the International Monetary Fund.

All that has happened is a correction of the extreme over-valuation of sterling before Brexit, caused by capital inflows. This left the country with the worst current account deficit in peace-time since records began in the 18th Century.

The fall is roughly comparable to the devaluation from 2007 to 2008 - though the same financial elites who talk so much of Armageddon today played it down on that occasion, mindful that their own banking crisis was the trigger.

We can argue over how much the 2008 devaluation helped but it clearly acted as shock absorber at a crucial moment. It was in any case a far less painful way to restore short-term competitiveness than the 'internal devaluations' and mass unemployment suffered by the eurozone's Club Med bloc.

But there is a deeper point today that is often overlooked. Central banks across the developed world are caught in a deflationary trap. The 'Wicksellian' or natural rate of interest has been falling ever lower with each economic cycle and is now at or below zero in half the global economy, a full seven years into the expansion.

This paralyses monetary policy and has dark implications for the next downturn. It is why central banks are desperately trying to drive down their currencies to gain a little breathing room, or in the case of the US Federal Reserve to stop the dollar rising.

By the accident of Brexit, Britain has pulled off a Wicksellian adjustment that eludes others.

With luck, the economy may even generate a few flickers of inflation, enough to let the Bank of England raise interest rates and start to restore 'intertemporal' equilibrium.

Online and digital trade across borders remains minimal, riddled with barriers. Britain's All-Party Parliamentary Group for European Reform concluded that "there is no single market in services in any meaningful sense."