If we vote for Brexit what happens

cells

Conrad wrote: »

Yes and I can be certain British cut flower growers will benefit where Dutch are loosing out due to currency.


France and Spain have endured years of grinding unemployment - couldn't you have let them know years ago that there was no need for this tragedy, as finding new markets is so simple

Long term unemployment is much lower in the EU than the headlines suggest. In France unemployment is headlined at almost 10% but that breaks down to just over 2% unemployed more than 12 months

So 80% of those unemployed in france find work within 12 months. That does not mean they wait 11 months and find work in the 12th month it often means that the largest portion find work in the first 3 moths

If you look at long term unemployed france is just a tad worse than the UK with France just above 2% and the UK just below 2%. This is for 2015

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Figure_8_Unemployment_rates_by_duration_2015_(%25).png

Conrad

The single market for services was due to be completed by 1 January 1993 but remains incomplete. Services make up 78% of the UK’s GDP, and exports of services accounted for £226bn in 2015, with 60.6% of those going to non-EU countries which it turn account for 76.4% of our trade surplus in services.

If the single market in services in the EU were to reach completion it would have to be through further harmonisation of regulations, which would be to the detriment of the Common Law legal system underpinning our globally respected and sought after services.

cells

In total, 4.5 % of the labour force in the EU-28 in 2015 had been unemployed for more than one year; more than half of these, 2.8 % of the labour force, had been unemployed for more than two years.

EU long term (12-23months) unemployment is 4.5%
EU Longer term (24+) unemployment is 2.8%

Although not as good as the ~1.5% to 2% seen in the UK/USA/Germany the 4.5% figure is not a huge world above our figures. The EU is also a bit late in recovering from the recession so in 3 years time the gap will close further.

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

Yes and I can be certain British cut flower growers will benefit where Dutch are loosing out due to currency.

France and Spain have endured years of grinding unemployment - couldn't you have let them know years ago that there was no need for this tragedy, as finding new markets is so simple

Yes, the big market of GB cut flowers mostly going to Ireland will save the whole economy.
Especially that same industry expressing their worry with "Plus one report states many UK flower farmers have benefitted from the EU’s free movement policy on immigration, as it has enabled them to grow through hiring staff from Europe."

What a load a baloney!

Conrad

Yamumuk wrote: »

Brexit people a few questions...

1)What are you owed ?

2)Who owes it to you ?

3)Why are you owed it ?

Economic growth in the UK has been founded on a number of unhealthy characteristics. It has depended above all on large population increases based on uncontrolled mass migration. This has made the economy bigger, but not necessarily better for individual citizens
It all depends far too much on domestic demand and importing far more than we export, which funded by credit.


Years we've longed to start rebalancing our economy, and now it's happening, and Brexit offers boundless opportunity.


Don't forget 70% of our exports are already done under WTO rules (this includes some to the EU).


All this hysteria over a relatively minor trading change is just astounding

Conrad

If the single market in services in the EU were to reach completion it would have to be through further harmonisation of regulations, which would be to the detriment of the English Common Law legal system underpinning our globally respected and sought after services.


In other words another reason we need to be ought, to preserve our service exports globally.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

http://www.businessforbritain.org/business-case/

The UK and the Single Market

In 2014 4.16% of SMEs are thought to have exported to the EU yet 100% of them must comply with EU regulations. Many of these regulations push up the cost of doing business and result in inflation being passed onto the consumer.

But that doesn't mean the customers for the other 95.84% of sales don't benefit from the products complying with EU regulations. You know, barbaric things like standardized phone chargers.

Realistically, if we want to keep trading with the EU (which I assume we do) we're going to have to comply with those regulations anyway.

That said, I've bought some UK products which aren't EU type approved (so I can't use them in the EU), so we already have some leeway to ignore some regulations.

As a consumer, I'm just not convinced that scrapping large swathes of EU red tape will benefit me.

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

Yes, the big market of GB cut flowers mostly going to Ireland will save the whole economy.
Especially that same industry expressing their worry with "Plus one report states many UK flower farmers have benefitted from the EU’s free movement policy on immigration, as it has enabled them to grow through hiring staff from Europe."

What a load a baloney!

That's about the 4th time you've taken one thing I've said an turned into saying that one thing will save the entire economy.


Not very good.


I repeat, Brexit will bring a million opportunities, why be so terrified of a bit of change, 70% of our trade is already under WTO rules and staying in the SM holds us back

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Only one country has explicitly referred to them as negotiating cards, ours.

None of the other EU countries have said anything, because there's nothing to say yet. They remain welcome in the EU. It's only us that seems to have a problem hosting EU citizens, remember. Everyone else is smart enough to take their tax income

there have been many and numerous threats from EU politicians talking about being tough on the UK :

NONE have excluded UK expats from the 'making the UK pay the price" rhetoric.
Not a single country has said the expats are welcome to stay indefinitely.

But lets agree that in future 'silence ' by a politician is ALWAYS interpreted as a 'good thing'.

Herzlos

If it can bring enough new opportunities that can make up for the ones we lose, then that's great. But I'm not sure we're even close yet.

How many boosts from flowers and sugar and the like do we need to close the £66bn a year gap from the report?

I'm terrified of this change because I'm not in a position where it won't affect me (a hike in mortgage rates, or a drop in job market, or massive inflation, may all cause me real financial difficulties), and we've no idea what that change is yet. We know stuff has to change, and we know some of that will be good and some will be bad, but there's an awful lot of unknowns here.

I'm optimistic that we'll get away with it with minimal hurt, but I'm pragmatic in assuming that it's going to be a lot of hurt.