If we vote for Brexit what happens

cogito

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Yeah well it's just cost you 25℅ more to invest over there than it did last month.

Well done.

My investments in the USA are doing very well since the Brexit vote largely because of sterling devaluation. And so are the investments of many other people.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

cogito wrote: »

What additional barriers would apply under WTO rules?

If there is a downside, could someone please explain what it is.

Non tariff barriers encompass many things - everything from rules of origin regulations to limits on services provision to quotas and restrictions on imports.

To give just one example - a country may have a free trade agreement with the EU that they can import for example cars made in the EU at a lower tariff.

However rules of origin may apply that says for example 95% of the car components have to be made in the EU.

If that car company has a supply chain all over the EU and the engines are made in Britain before the car is assembled in Spain - but Britain leaves the EU - then the EU company can no longer export cars under that reduced tariff free trade agreement.

Or at least - it can no longer source it's engines from Britain and will have to switch production of them to elsewhere within the EU single market. So Britain loses an engine manufacturer and all the jobs and supply chain that goes with it.

That is just one hypothetical example but there are thousands or tens of thousands of similar situations.

The UK has spent decades touting itself around the globe as a location within the single market and within the EU. We've attracted billions in investment from companies that needed to establish an HQ or manufacturing facility within the EU single market.

If we are no longer in the single market they'll have to move....

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Non tariff barriers encompass many things - everything from rules of origin regulations to limits on services provision to quotas and restrictions on imports.

To give just one example - a country may have a free trade agreement with the EU that they can import for example cars made in the EU at a lower tariff.

However rules of origin may apply that says for example 95% of the car components have to be made in the EU.

great example : just shows how protectionist you have become, with no belief in the (mutual) benefits of free trade

Filo25

Can we even go directly to WTO rules as soon as we finalise Brexit?

I recall reading something in the FT a while back saying that even regularising our WTO status could take years of negotiation.

Unfortunately it seems to be a common theme that any trade negotiation takes years to reach a successful conclusion.

From what I've read the EU and Canada started investigating their trade deal back in 2008, CETA still hasn't been implemented, 8 years later.

Agree with wotsthat post earlier in that I think economically a soft Brexit makes a lot of sense in the short run whether you favour a long-term hard Brexit or not, if nothing else a Norway style deal buys you time to negotiate some of the global trade deals the UK will need to negotiate and it allows us to negotiate those deals with less of a ticking clock hanging over us.

For what its worth I think its unlikely to happen for purely political reasons, I think there is a clear calculation here that if the government delivers hard Brexit it will hoover up a lot of former UKIP voters.

Of course it might annoy a lot of Business friendly, socially liberal Tory supporters, but realistically they don't have many other compelling choices to vote for right now, they sure as hell won't be voting for a Corbyn led Labour party, and the LibDems are basically an irrelevance at present.

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

I'm fed up of hearing about how much Europe needs us. If negotiations go pear shaped and we end up with WTO trading rules it will be as bad for them as well as us. That EU citizens as well as British are damaged by Brexit isn't a consolation to me.

Most of the stuff we trade with Europe can easily be made in either the UK or EU.

Assuming we fall back to WTO terms, one of the benefits of having a trade deficit with the EU is that if trade falls 20% both ways, UK companies may be able divert export production to our home market to fill the vacuum left by decreasing EU imports. Indeed they may need to step up production as our exports were far less than what the EU previously sold to us.

The EU of course have the opposite problem. They can't divert all their UK bound exports to their home markets as our exports to the EU are far less.

Maybe a simplified example but we certainly hold the upper hand due to our EU trade deficit.

Firetastic

Read this in The Express.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/719562/Brexit-Britain-FRONT-of-the-queue-for-trade-deal-with-Gulf-States

Nearlyold

Unusual article for the Express, no mention of Princess Diana or any extreme weather predictions, does that mean there is at least some chance it might be true or is that too much to hope for

Firetastic

Yes I've recently started reading The Express and sometimes I wished I hadn't. I told everyone in the house about a Solar Powercut which I read in The Express. Strangely enough I never heard about it on any other news website, nothing happened and my family still tease me about it.:rotfl:

padington

cogito wrote: »

My investments in the USA are doing very well since the Brexit vote largely because of sterling devaluation. And so are the investments of many other people.

Great, more inequality between rich and poor. Fabulous.

CLAPTON

padington wrote: »

Great, more inequality between rich and poor. Fabulous.

all stems from the segregration caused by educational inequality;
between those that go to the standard state sector and all those posh people like Chakribati and Thornberry and Abbott that choose other schools for their children