If we vote for Brexit what happens

padington

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There's no case at the moment to suggest that the EU is working economically. Much of Europe is struggling terribly and has been for years. Hence the rising opposition to much of what is driven along by Germany and France in particular. Imposing their will on others.

The opinion that leaving the European Union is a wise decision is contrary to the vast majority of our MP's, Lords and the most educated British citizens and captains of industry.

Just so you know.

Conrad

And before anyone comes along with the trite 'barriers to trade' argument, I counted 11 products in my fridge last night that originated outside of the EU, to include Aussie wine and American chocolate.


I also noted American Microsoft and Apple products in my home, Japanese and Korean appliances and gadgets and tyres made in Malaysia.


None of them require SM membership, dohh, and services are imported under Equivalence rules, tariff free, dohhh

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

It is quite obvious we will have decent access,

I don't think we will. Realistically, I think we should all prepare for WTO rules.

By the way, I don't have a problem with that.

Conrad

padington wrote: »

The opinion that leaving the European Union is a wise decision is contrary to the vast majority of our MP's, Lords and the most educated British citizens and captains of industry.

Just so you know.

Think the north and the poor caused Brexit? Think again


Zoe Williams


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/07/north-poor-brexit-myths

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

I don't think we will. Realistically, I think we should all prepare for WTO rules.

By the way, I don't have a problem with that.

Yes I don't rule that out at all, but on balance I feel we will get something like the Canadian deal, after all our market is currently worth 10x more in terms of current EU trade, and we're already fully aligned so there should be no need for a long 'discussion'. In the meantime tariff free will persist as there is no way French farmers and others will be scarified on the alter of Brussels political imperatives.


We hold plenty of aces such as the fact Spain and Portugal reply heavily on fishing our rich waters.

kabayiri

padington wrote: »

The opinion that leaving the European Union is a wise decision is contrary to the vast majority of our MP's, Lords and the most educated British citizens and captains of industry.

Just so you know.

Remaining in the EU was painted as a vote for the status quo.

In reality, there is no such thing. The EU is no more immune to changing global conditions than we are.

Conrad

chucknorris wrote: »

I would prefer a soft Brexit to stay in the common market,

Chuck, could you educate me here, what do you dislike about the market access for example Canada is about to get? Please remember in your answer that retail financial services can be exported under Mifid 2 rules, no EU membership is needed, and most firms with passport rights have not bothered using them anyway and they can and do set up brass plates in the EU


So what would be so awful about a Canada style deal?

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

I'd definitely want the three degrees in charge of all lying activities.

A reminder of SOME of the Establishment lies and cynical manipulations;


Remains £4300 cut to every household;

‘Neither government departments nor other spokespeople for the remain side should repeat (this) mistaken assertion… to persist with this claim would be to misrepresent the Treasury’s own work’. SOURCE: Treasury Select Committee.


Christine Lagarde of the IMF - 13/May - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/13/house-prices-and-stock-market-will-tumble-if-uk-votes-for-brexit/


An "abrupt reaction to an exit vote" could entail "sharp drops in equity and house prices, increased borrowing costs for households and businesses" that would hit growth.




George Osborne 21 May - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36344425


'a Leave vote would produce an “immediate economic shock” that would “affect the value of people’s homes” to the tune of 18 per cent. The Treasury’s small print revealed that they were actually forecasting that house prices would continue to rise


and - (link is too wide to post here)


“a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession”.


and - An emergency budget. Osborne, along with Alan Johnson, said a few days before the referendum that a Leave vote would result in an emergency budget, involving £30 billion of spending cuts and tax rises. The expected timescale numerous newspapers gleaned from Treasury spinners was that this would happen “within weeks” of the referendum.


Markets have already hard baked future considerations into today's market prices, I see no lack of confidence indicated by the markets, especially the 250.


The central Treasury forecast was for a ‘brief shallow recession’, but the entire Remain establishment told us we’d be putting a bomb under our economy


Cameron promised future immigration cuts and maintained the ‘tens of thousands’ ambition, but Treasury economic forecasts out to 2030 assumed current immigration levels.


Cameron 2012 in Turkey – ‘I remain your greatest possible advocate’. 2016 – ‘Turkey wont be joining for a thousand years’.



Osborn said house prices would fall 28% – failing to mention the BOE could reduce interest rates to avoid this and indeed prices are now going up again


Osborn said there would be an immediate interest rate hike, yet they’ve now fallen


Osborn threatened a pension cut yet the triple lock prevents this!


Osborn ordered The Treasury to consider negative only spectrum outcomes that assumed no trade deal with EU or anyone else!


Osborn promised an immediate emergency budget & tax rises


Obama – told us we’d go to the back of an imaginary ‘queue’ failing to mention US /EU trade deals had failed over years.


Clegg told us cross border co-operation on the environment and security are ONLY possible within the EU, failing to mention examples such as the Australia / EU security and sharing agreement 2015


Establishment economists with a liberal academic bent piled myth upon myth, and promised immediate chaos. All nonsense informed by raw emotion and status quo bias


BOE made no mention of the economic weapons at it’s disposal in order to down-play the effects of any turbulence. Following Brexit they deployed those weapons of course.


BANKS – said Brexit would be a mistake, then shortly after the vote met in London with Osborn to assert their full confidence in London. Same Banks said they’d leave when we exited ERM and if we did not join the Euro. Same scare tactics used when Switzerland and Norway had referendums.


RYANAIR–O’Leary toured the media circuit with news low cost airlines would become a thing of the past (I SAW MANY FACEBOOK COMMENTS THAT THIS WAS A PRIME REMAINERS CONCERN). On August 30th Jet2 announce 1000 new UK jobs and new routes


U-TURNS -following the vote from many firms such as Siemens


Sterling devaluation was recommended by the IMF for months prior to the vote, yet Remain never mention this
Break up of the UK - but latest polls indicate Scots wish to remain in UK

wotsthat

mrginge wrote: »

Again, that's a reasonable position. However, that is a better deal than we have at the moment. Why will the EU give us that?

Surely if that is an outcome then every other member country would want the same thing?

We call the EU's bluff and concede to their red lines whilst accepting we'll follow EU legislation without influencing said legislation and we pay for access to the free market. All we get in return is the ability to negotiate trade deals with others.

I thought most Brexiteers would see that as a terrible deal because they seem to have a high degree of confidence that we can construct new and bigger trade alliances without having to worry about EU trade at all.

I don't see it as a great deal to be honest but a pragmatic one that insures somewhat against an outcome where trade with the rest of the world turns out to be small or slow to build.

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

I thought most Brexiteers would see that as a terrible deal because they seem to have a high degree of confidence that we can construct new and bigger trade alliances without having to worry about EU trade at all.

Nope, that's not what we said. We said trade with Europe will not be affected, it really wont, that we can expect a trade deal given the dozens in existence with much less important markets and because Europe needs many things from us such as the same on-going military commitment and fishing water access, but that even under WTO rules, all will be well - for obvious reasons.


In addition we then get to trade with the world not bound by EU constraints, and that many benefits will accrue that are not even trade deal related.