If we vote for Brexit what happens

Masomnia

padington wrote: »

I'm talking about what will happen, not what did happen. I'll say it again, if we leave the European union the economic consequences will be dreadful.

I think there will be short term, but we'll adjust. The EU has lower growth rates than us currently and double the level of unemployment; it's hardly the land of milk and honey.

wotsthat

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

Surely all this tough-talking Hard Brexit rhetoric is the classic politicians' ruse of announcing an extreme strategy (tax people with ginger hair an extra 10%). Then after some guff and bluster they can modify it to only taxing gingers 5%, making them look reasonable and open to debate.

There can be no real negotiations until Article 50 is invoked so, until then, pre-negotiation negotiations will consist of politicians shouting across the channel at each other.

Hopefully there are more grown-up discussions happening behind the scenes.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

There can be no real negotiations until Article 50 is invoked so, until then, pre-negotiation negotiations will consist of politicians shouting across the channel at each other.

Hopefully there are more grown-up discussions happening behind the scenes.

seem to be two mutually contradictory statements.

mrginge

chucknorris wrote: »

My bad, but EU laws/influence are not an issue to me (I don't mind having less powerful vacuum cleaners). Immigration isn't a negative issue to me either, and it never has been.

Fair enough. But wouldn't it make more sense to just not leave then?

mrginge

wotsthat wrote: »

I favour a soft Brexit. The only red line I would put in place is that the UK shouldn't give up newly repatriated powers to negotiate trade deals with other countries/ trading blocks. Free movement, fees and adoption of EU legislation are all worth it IMO - that's what we've got now and the sun still rises every morning.

This would maintain the stability of trade with the EU and give the UK space to see whether there really is a queue of third countries that are able to add to/ replace current EU trade.

If it turns out the Brexiteers are completely wrong about just how much trade the EU prevents us from doing at least we won't have gambled away what trade we do have.

If it turns out the Brexiteers are correct and there's going to be increased trade (and quickly) we simply re-negotiate with the EU from this new, stronger position.

Again, that's a reasonable position. However, that is a better deal than we have at the moment. Why will the EU give us that?

Surely if that is an outcome then every other member country would want the same thing?

setmefree2

China sets yuan at 6-year low against dollar

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-sets-yuan-at-6-year-low-against-dollar-2016-10-09?siteid=rss

chucknorris

mrginge wrote: »

Fair enough. But wouldn't it make more sense to just not leave then?

Definitely, but I don't that is going to happen, this is just my opinion of course. Others think that we would be better off leaving, they are entitled to their opinion too, in fact, that was the prevailing opinion in the vote.

mrginge

Masomnia wrote: »

I think it's exactly that. I doubt May wants 'hard Brexit' and I doubt the majority of UK citizens do. I'm sure it's more of an attempt to show the EU that we are not desperate for a deal and will walk away if there no concessions.

Hard Brexit is the worst case scenario for all parties.
But if you start your negotiating position by saying you won't take the nuclear option if necessary then you ain't got much of a position to negotiate from.

Conrad

mrginge wrote: »

Again, that's a reasonable position. However, that is a better deal than we have at the moment. Why will the EU give us that?

It is quite obvious we will have decent access, as they need decent access to our market, deep capital markets, fishing grounds (70% quota) and the utility our out-sized military makes to European security.


I think we will get tariff free access, but if they want WTO level tariffs they will suffer much more than us, and we will get a boost of substantial tariff revenues on all our imports of manufactures from them which we could spend on other economic improvements at home. Services are of course tariff free.


Canada is about to get almost total free trade with no concessions on immigration.

As a sovereign nation, we will make decisions on our immigration policy, it is simply not up for negotiation, although it's worth remembering we will of course accept EU migrants..

Conrad

There is no such thing as 'hard' Brexit, only Brexit.

As an architect of the SM, Peter Lilly, says;

There are only two realistic outcomes for the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU. Either the UK and the EU27 agree to continue to trade freely with each other without tariffs. Or the UK and the EU27 apply to imports from each other the WTO tariffs which we currently apply to the EUs biggest trading partners – USA, Russia, China.

Both options are pretty simple. Unlike negotiations to remove complex tariffs between countries, retaining zero tariffs is simplicity itself.

Moreover, both are acceptable to the UK, and preferable to the present situation. Continuing tariff-free trade (plus passporting of financial services) is only negotiable if we are willing to walk away with no deal: i.e. trading on a WTO basis. Fortunately, we can. The average tariff our exporters to the EU would face would be about four per cent (that includes agricultural products: manufactures average 2.4 per cent).

Given the 12 per cent exchange rate movement in favour of our exporters, they would remain better off. By contrast, continental exporters would have to absorb the tariffs on top of a 12 per cent loss of competitiveness.


Tariff-free access is certainly not worth continuing our net budget contribution of £10 billion, which is equivalent to a seven per cent tariff. In any case, it is a myth to suppose that the EU will only give tariff-free access to its internal market in return for a budgetary contribution and accepting free movement of labour. The EU has free trade agreements with over 50 countries, all but three of which involve neither budgetary contribution nor free movement.