HPC thread of the week

cells

anchovypizza wrote: »

Which people?

Name them, who has been in denial for 14 years.

Did the 100'000's of member join on the first day and stayed ever since?

I personally think many of those joining back then probably would have changed their mind since then.

Legond has it one of the early gurus over there was a financial planner who sold to rent in London in 2002....

TheeMaskedTurnip

Hikarious. The loons over at HPC goon gloom central start a thread about people shorting the London housing market only to discover that the article posted was a year old:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/208411-hedge-funds-short-london-housing-shares-omg/#entry1102880631

System

westernpromise wrote: »

"There was one saying that I always remembered, never fall in love with a hand. "

The absence of self-awareness in that post is truly comical.

Someone goes onto HPC, a site for people in denial about having been completely wrong for 14 years, and insists that other people have "fall[en] in love with a hand".

Self-awareness has never been a strong point. My favourite lack of self awareness over there is using the word sheeple... really? Look around you.

Almost as comical as the fact that as usual none of it has any basis in reality and nothing but bitterness for ordinary people. A 34 year old who committed the ultimate sin of buying a house for his family is a 50 year old virgin who is "all in" and "fallen in love with his hand".

Resentment is a terrible beast.

chucknorris

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Self-awareness has never been a strong point. My favourite lack of self awareness over there is using the word sheeple... really? Look around you.

Almost as comical as the fact that as usual none of it has any basis in reality and nothing but bitterness for ordinary people. A 34 year old who committed the ultimate sin of buying a house for his family is a 50 year old virgin who is "all in" and "fallen in love with his hand".

Resentment is a terrible beast.

It is extraordinary and it would be amusing (if it wasn't so sad) how they cannot see how their 'glass half empty' approach to life just doesn't work. Sensible bears however, are worth listening to, they can shed a different light on a subject that I might have overlooked, so it is often worthwhile to read what they have to say, like Thrug, the voice of doom (no offence), but his thoughts are usually based on logic. But the total loonies are best ignored, the worst ones I actually put on ignore.

westernpromise

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Self-awareness has never been a strong point. My favourite lack of self awareness over there is using the word sheeple... really? Look around you.

Resentment is a terrible beast.

It’s why I see HPC as the anti-MSE. First, they treat the biggest financial decision of their lives as a grossly selfish speculative punt. Property has inflated, they missed it, so they want it to deflate - regardless of the impact on others - purely so they can buy back in at the levels of 20 years ago. Then when it inflates again, as of course it’s certain to do, they’ll be the ones collecting the inflation this time. That this is not happening is the fault of Goldman Sachs, Mark Carney, “boomers”, BTL landlords, “idiots”, “EAs”, “VIs”, “TPTB”, Bilderbergers, lizards, stupid Mumsnetters, George Osborne, BOMAD, trustafarians, Fatcha, and in fact everybody except themselves.

Second, the attitude to financial decision making is fundamentally inane. On HPC you have truck-driver recruiters, people whose caps-lock and exclamation mark keys are jammed on, people who STRed in 2002, people who blame feminism and women for everything, and people who are poor and angry, all routinely mistaking themselves for acutely percipient financial sages. They’re possessed of a unique insight into the future trajectory of the world economy, and to a man, woman and troll they’re all experts on Tokyo 1990. They display an air of sneery superiority that reminds me of 20-year-old members of the college Christian Union, who looked down on others because they knew they were saved, and we weren’t.

The MSEer contemplating buying a house, in contrast, considers how long they’ll need to stay, looks at what they can afford and where, and compares the costs of buying to those of renting over a five- or ten-year horizon. Now as at any time in the last 20 years, the usual and correct choice is to buy with a fixed rate and then overpay the mortgage.

One of these groups is a lot, lot happier about its choices than the other, which is probably why MSE tolerates debate and HPC doesn’t.

westernpromise

chucknorris wrote: »

It is extraordinary and it would be amusing (if it wasn't so sad) how they cannot see how their 'glass half empty' approach to life just doesn't work.

It’s a position taken on ex post. They whoop with delight at bad economic news, because it proves the glass really is half empty. They were right! Bad news is good news, and vice versa.

Sensible bears however, are worth listening to, they can shed a different light on a subject that I might have overlooked

My own view (since about 2002) has been that the market is getting due for one of its periodic corrections. But as I’ve been an owner throughout, and would face transaction costs of around 10% getting out and then back in, I’d need to know when and what size this cyclical correction will be, if I wanted to trade this view. I don’t have this information, so I can’t.

Something that a lot of bears do seem to have forgotten is that in the crash of 1990, the prices at which some property sold happened because the vendors couldn’t afford their mortgage any more, and nor was *any* end to high interest rates in prospect. I recall press comment in 1988 to 1989 that it took several years of high interest rates to squeeze inflation out of the system, so we could expect mortgage rates to be around the 12 to 15% mark for around three to four years. This proved to be painfully accurate. The bear expectation of a further crash seems to rest on the assumption of a similar interest rate shock, but it is quite hard to see what will create one. Inflation seems to be dead; what else would drive rates up?

But the total loonies are best ignored, the worst ones I actually put on ignore.

How actually do you do this?

chucknorris

westernpromise wrote: »

How actually do you do this?

Click the 'User CP' tab above, then click the 'Edit ignore list' tab, and then add the posters name to your ignore list.

TheeMaskedTurnip

westernpromise wrote: »

It’s why I see HPC as the anti-MSE. First, they treat the biggest financial decision of their lives as a grossly selfish speculative punt. Property has inflated, they missed it, so they want it to deflate - regardless of the impact on others - purely so they can buy back in at the levels of 20 years ago. Then when it inflates again, as of course it’s certain to do, they’ll be the ones collecting the inflation this time. That this is not happening is the fault of Goldman Sachs, Mark Carney, “boomers”, BTL landlords, “idiots”, “EAs”, “VIs”, “TPTB”, Bilderbergers, lizards, stupid Mumsnetters, George Osborne, BOMAD, trustafarians, Fatcha, and in fact everybody except themselves.

Second, the attitude to financial decision making is fundamentally inane. On HPC you have truck-driver recruiters, people whose caps-lock and exclamation mark keys are jammed on, people who STRed in 2002, people who blame feminism and women for everything, and people who are poor and angry, all routinely mistaking themselves for acutely percipient financial sages. They’re possessed of a unique insight into the future trajectory of the world economy, and to a man, woman and troll they’re all experts on Tokyo 1990. They display an air of sneery superiority that reminds me of 20-year-old members of the college Christian Union, who looked down on others because they knew they were saved, and we weren’t.

The MSEer contemplating buying a house, in contrast, considers how long they’ll need to stay, looks at what they can afford and where, and compares the costs of buying to those of renting over a five- or ten-year horizon. Now as at any time in the last 20 years, the usual and correct choice is to buy with a fixed rate and then overpay the mortgage.

One of these groups is a lot, lot happier about its choices than the other, which is probably why MSE tolerates debate and HPC doesn’t.

That pretty much hits the nail on the head. I always wonder if the financial planner who STR in 2002 if his clients are aware.

anchovypizza

And yet another day obsessing about HPC

wotsthat

anchovypizza wrote: »

And yet another day obsessing about HPC

Good for you. Admitting you've got a problem is the first step.

It took me a while but I only go there for a laugh a couple of times a week now.

It can be done buddy.