HPC thread of the week

thequant

I used to be on HPC before coming here (actually I found out about here from HPC).

In the past they were correct, they did predict a crash would happen as a result of reckless lending which would cause a global financial meltdown.

The problem was they became buoyed by their own success, failing to recognize that a broken clock still tells the correct time twice a day.

They had for so long penciled in 50% price falls, that even when they eventually bottomed out at 25% they were still convinced they had further to fall.

When that failed to happen thats when they started to lose the plot. The problem seems to be the hard core members over there, are the ones who sat out the last boom from the end of the 90's. Under no circumstances will they buy unless they get those pre-millennium prices they feel they so richly deserve.

Eventually I came over here, at first mostly because of their moderation policies which favoured a certain clique. Over time I started to listen to the voices of reason like Hamish.

In the end I finally bought and it's been the best financial decision I have ever made.

If I had stayed over there and was still buying into their mantra, it would have cost me a lot of money.

mwpt

My best guess is that I didn't find the housepricecrash website until sometime after 2010 when I really started to question my own judgement. I'd believed since about 2004, when I first had the ability to buy in London and started looking around, that prices were nuts. I saw people taking 100% + loans to buy whatever they could and just couldn't understand why. I guess since my childhood was not spent in the UK, I was unaware just how deeply engrained into the culture of the kingdom house prices are and expected things would eventually fail.

Well, fail they did but were promptly underwritten by the government. In 2008/09 I kept an eye out on local areas I was interested in but still didn't see falls to levels I though of as value. This was my own fuzzy definition of value and nothing to do with HPC. I then got despondent and gave up house hunting (bad decision).

I found the HPC website around 2010 I guess and read it quite often (didn't post). But after a while I started to see the same voices, saying the same out of touch things and that was actually helpful to me because it made me realise perhaps my reasoning was flawed too. I still think credit has been a major part of the reason for HPI but I also started to question whether the government would ever let house prices crash significantly. I decided that the evidence in front of me said "probably not" and reluctantly started looking around again. By this stage I'd missed the small plateau of prices in certain areas in London and had to start looking in less desirable areas (for me). I eventually found something I could compromise on and bought. Only after this point I registered on HPC to post and thought that the posts I did make presented a reasonably balanced view that I could back up. Apparently it wasn't satisfactory because I was banned.

Since prices haven't crashed, I have to say my financial situation is better than had I rented this same house since then. But since I wanted to trade up to somewhere nicer in or just out of London, I'd rather prices didn't continue to rise! In fact, a 20% drop would leave me quite well positioned with equity to trade up.

Having said all that about HPC, I do think the level of analysis that goes on there exceeds this forum in many ways. Just that certain posters only look through blinkered glasses.

carslet

thequant wrote: »

I used to be on HPC before coming here (actually I found out about here from HPC).

In the past they were correct, they did predict a crash would happen as a result of reckless lending which would cause a global financial meltdown.

The problem was they became buoyed by their own success, failing to recognize that a broken clock still tells the correct time twice a day.

They had for so long penciled in 50% price falls, that even when they eventually bottomed out at 25% they were still convinced they had further to fall.

When that failed to happen thats when they started to lose the plot. The problem seems to be the hard core members over there, are the ones who sat out the last boom from the end of the 90's. Under no circumstances will they buy unless they get those pre-millennium prices they feel they so richly deserve.

Eventually I came over here, at first mostly because of their moderation policies which favoured a certain clique. Over time I started to listen to the voices of reason like Hamish.

In the end I finally bought and it's been the best financial decision I have ever made.

If I had stayed over there and was still buying into their mantra, it would have cost me a lot of money.

Exactly, I used to be on there too, and thought it was correct, but buying was the best financial decision I ever made, being on there was the worst, i could have do so much better..but live and learn

mystic_trev

I find it strange, or even weird, how the HPC crowd get full of glee with any Financial crash. The countofnowhere is full of excitement at the prospect of a Stockmarket crash.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207853-black-monday-4th-jan-2016/

Be careful what you wish for......

gadgetmind

Well, as all of their money goes on rent rather than into investments, I guess they hate those with pensions and ISAs almost as much as those with houses.

mystic_trev

gadgetmind wrote: »

I guess they hate those with pensions and ISAs almost as much as those with houses.

I think they just hate anyone who's not part of their lunatic fringe.

chucknorris

mystic_trev wrote: »

I find it strange, or even weird, how the HPC crowd get full of glee with any Financial crash. The countofnowhere is full of excitement at the prospect of a Stockmarket crash.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207853-black-monday-4th-jan-2016/

Be careful what you wish for......

It is probably more of a case of realising that he has totally failed in life, and there is no hope for him, but at least if everyone else also fails he feels that he will have some company, and not feel like such a jerk. But that won't happen, people who invested wisely for the long term will tend to bounce back. I wish that I could say that I will invest more at this level (over and above the usual monthly amount available), but I'm more or less all in, I invested my last £70k (apart from odds and ends) into the stock market last Dec/Nov (at about this level).

gadgetmind

I've still got cash to deploy, but between ISAs and pensions we're putting £72.5k pa into the markets, so we'll benefit from the speed bumps anyway..

chucknorris

gadgetmind wrote: »

I've still got cash to deploy, but between ISAs and pensions we're putting £72.5k pa into the markets, so we'll benefit from the speed bumps anyway..

Well done, I wish I still had some ammunition left, mind you today, I switched £270k from one ftse 100 etf to another etf, and locked a £30k loss in, I will use that to mitigate my CGT bill when I sell my first property. It wasn't a true £30k loss, as I had previously bed and breakfasted it, but of course it was a loss from the higher level. But I'm finally accepting and comfortable of shares dipping like property, I know it sounds daft, but I used to get concerned over shares dropping (but not property, probably because of the liquidity difference, if you are locked in your hands are tied, so no need to get concerned). But I'm finally getting to that place where I just see it as further opportunity when share prices fall.

Mistermeaner

Chuck's loaded. Just in case none of you realised.