HPC thread of the week

westernpromise

caronoel wrote: »

...no recruitment consultants for truck drivers in Northampton, oops I mean the south of France

Corrected that sentence for you chucky

:rotfl:

Wow. I had no idea the low end of recruitment consulting was that low.

caronoel

I love this post from the eminently wise, but location opaque, Count:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207864-would-you-buy-if-prices-fell-25-if-not-why-not/?p=1102856580

The trouble I had in 2008-2010 when we seriously considered buying was, despite a 20%+ drop in prices locally according to the land reg, no one was really selling, the good homes never really sold at all just sat there at 2007 prices ad infinitum.

This is the issue that the HPC lot really cant fathom - that homeowners will not sell below a certain price point unless they are in financial distress.

During the last financial crisis, the government took the brave decision to cut interest rates to almost nothing and to introduce QE. Net result was that the housing downturn was shortlived, and the HPC cheerleaders missed the boat yet again.

House price corrections come about once every 15-20 years. When the next crash hits in 10-15 years time, the government of that time will do all they can to mitigate the financial risk to homeowners. To do otherwise would be political suicide.

The sad thing for the HPC lot is that, despite all their graphs and theorising, they just dont understand this political reality

Many of them are in their late thirties and early forties now. By the time the next correction comes, many will be 50 somethings and still sitting on a "huge" deposit waiting for the ever elusive "crash"

Oh dear.........

carslet

mayonnaise wrote: »

In the same thread, Jonathan Davis is once more predicting 20-25% off during 2016-17.
Considering his track record, that's reassuring.

that same Jonathan Davis who ended up buying a house, after selling to rent, but while still making out it was best to rent and a crash of 50% was imminent

mwpt

caronoel wrote: »

House price corrections come about once every 15-20 years. When the next crash hits in 10-15 years time, the government of that time will do all they can to mitigate the financial risk to homeowners. To do otherwise would be political suicide.

This was the part that I was missing. In my defence, house prices did correct, so partly my view was correct, I just did not realise that the government didn't want a free market. I really regret not knowing that, I could have bought in 2004 and I'd be about £200-£300k better off now.

On the other hand, I still do not know if they can go against market forces forever. Whenever something seems like a sure thing, we seem to go through a massive crash of some form, with people then rationalising why it never was a sure thing. You guys seem incredibly sure of your views.

mayonnaise

carslet wrote: »

that same Jonathan Davis who ended up buying a house, after selling to rent, but while still making out it was best to rent and a crash of 50% was imminent

Yep. That same Jonathan Davis who gave this interview to the BBC in 2009.

If I buy now, am I buying at the bottom of the market?
JD: No. When the government stimulus ends there will be nothing holding up the market. Prices will fall 20-30% from here to 2011/12.
Is it a good time to become a buy-to-let investor?
JD: No. Rents and capital values are in a falling trend, buy-to-let mortgages are practically non-existent and, by comparison, you can get 3-4% problem-free returns just by having money on deposit in a building society account.
Can I get a mortgage now?
JD: Of course. But if house prices fall again, as we believe they will, why would you?
Consider what you could rent during the next couple of years - you might be surprised by the value available.
Will mortgage costs remain low for some time?
JD: No. They are already rising even though the Bank of England rate has stayed static for months. This is because of global markets.
They will continue to rise for years. Even the Bank of England rate will eventually rise - it can hardly go lower as it is only 0.5%.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8224453.stm
Shame on you, BBC, for giving centre stage to this charlatan. :mad:

gadgetmind

Well, he got his name right, so surely one point for that?

mwpt

wotsthat wrote: »

It's possible to be an excellent debater, have high intellect and a logical mind, to have high morals and to possess all the answers - and still be very very wrong.

There's one poster like this on HPC who I find very convincing but he STR'ed in the South-East in 2011/12 so despite his excellent analysis was no better equipped to make the correct call than anyone else.

It appears to have driven him quite insane and he's appointed himself chief of the HPC Inquisition searching out inconsistencies in people's backstories and outing trolls.

I agree with this. I'm guessing you're talking about Bland Unsight. There are others who are prepared to put in a lot of work to expose data too. But I just have to look at how he seemed to celebrate that I was banned to understand that he isn't judging things with a balanced scale. He is biased.

Of course, we're all biased. We have confirmation bias, obviously. And people here also suffer from hindsight bias. Those of you who have made a mint of property investment like to think this was entirely down to foresight and skill. It could never have gone any other way, right?

caronoel

mwpt wrote: »

On the other hand, I still do not know if they can go against market forces forever. Whenever something seems like a sure thing, we seem to go through a massive crash of some form, with people then rationalising why it never was a sure thing. You guys seem incredibly sure of your views.

Only a fool would predict that a house price crash will never occur.

It is a natural part of the boom and bust cycle of economics.

Few here would deny a house price crash is possible, but it is extremely unlikely in the current economic climate and at this stage of the economic cycle.

When it does happen though, the government will be at the ready to soften the damage for home owners – of that, I am sure.

carslet

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yep. That same Jonathan Davis who gave this interview to the BBC in 2009.

If I buy now, am I buying at the bottom of the market?
JD: No. When the government stimulus ends there will be nothing holding up the market. Prices will fall 20-30% from here to 2011/12.
Is it a good time to become a buy-to-let investor?
JD: No. Rents and capital values are in a falling trend, buy-to-let mortgages are practically non-existent and, by comparison, you can get 3-4% problem-free returns just by having money on deposit in a building society account.
Can I get a mortgage now?
JD: Of course. But if house prices fall again, as we believe they will, why would you?
Consider what you could rent during the next couple of years - you might be surprised by the value available.
Will mortgage costs remain low for some time?
JD: No. They are already rising even though the Bank of England rate has stayed static for months. This is because of global markets.
They will continue to rise for years. Even the Bank of England rate will eventually rise - it can hardly go lower as it is only 0.5%.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8224453.stm
Shame on you, BBC, for giving centre stage to this charlatan. :mad:

COuld not be more wrong on every question, :rotfl:

MFW_ASAP

mwpt wrote: »

Those of you who have made a mint of property investment like to think this was entirely down to foresight and skill. It could never have gone any other way, right?

I was on here in 2006/2007 when the bears were talking about a crash and I agreed with a lot of their analysis. I thought about my family's financial position and decided to make us as 'crash-proof' as possible.

This didn't include 'going all in' like the HPC guys seem to have to do by selling their houses and moving into rented accommodation. For me, it meant paying off our unsecured debts, blitzing our secured debt (mortgage) and building up a 'safety fund'. I also moved my pension out of equities and into cash.

By the end of the crisis (or at least the bit that could have impacted us), we had paid off about 60% of the mortgage, built up the safety fund to where it would have covered us for up to 12 months unemployment (more if we really scraped by) and we had zero debt other than a (now much smaller) mortgage. I also moved back into equities when the FTSE hit around 3500, prior to QE starting.

When we saw how the land was lying (super low interest rates and a government willing to do anything to support house prices) we then used all of this accumulated disaster fund, combined with a 5 x salary IO mortgage to buy a dream house in 2010. I anticipated (gambled?) on us having low rates for at least 5 years and used this window to again blitz the mortgage with over payments. It's now down to a comfortable 3.5 x salary level. My pension has more than doubled in value due to investing at the bottom and from QE gains.

Over the same time period, the bears on here still continued to talk doom, unable to modify their positions to match the reality. They correctly predicted the crash but made zero profit from it - waiting like the HPC guys (probably most of them were also on HPC) for even bigger falls that would never come.

My house and stockmarket investment gains are therefore entirely down to foresight and skill and, frankly, a lot of cojones) and I make sure that the bears (those that haven't fled in shame) know about it!