HPC thread of the week

mayonnaise

In the same thread, Jonathan Davis is once more predicting 20-25% off during 2016-17.
Considering his track record, that's reassuring.

caronoel

mayonnaise wrote: »

In the same thread, Jonathan Davis is once more predicting 20-25% off during 2016-17.
Considering his track record, that's reassuring.

Which post?

I thought that particular muppet was even laughed off HPC as being a bit too extreme.

westernpromise

mwpt wrote: »

Having said all that about HPC, I do think the level of analysis that goes on there exceeds this forum in many ways. Just that certain posters only look through blinkered glasses.

Well, apart from being 100% wrong for 13 years now, yes, the analysis over there is really great. They made a very convincing case for why prices were going to crash 50% by the end of 2004.

I read a book a few years ago called "No Surrender", which was by a Japanese WW2 "holdout" officer on an island in the Philippines who refused to accept that Japan had been defeated. He finally walked out of the jungle to capitulate until 1972.

here had been many attempts to get through to him during those 27 years but he had rationalised them all away to his complete satisfaction.

The HPC crowd should read that book because they're in it.

chucknorris

westernpromise wrote: »

Well, apart from being 100% wrong for 13 years now, yes, the analysis over there is really great. They made a very convincing case for why prices were going to crash 50% by the end of 2004.

Reminds me of a post card from Las Vegas:

'Roulette system going really well, please send another $10k'

mwpt

westernpromise wrote: »

Well, apart from being 100% wrong for 13 years now, yes, the analysis over there is really great. They made a very convincing case for why prices were going to crash 50% by the end of 2004.

Your argument will always be summed up as "they were wrong", and I can't argue with that. Except, some of the posters on there tend to shy away from predictions, they are concerned with moral issues and/or actual analysis of what might happen. See FreeTrader for e.g. or several others. Your expertise comes in the form of:

"I lived through it"
"Prices crashing is never a good thing for anyone"

etc.

Sorry sport, I find my will to engage with you withering.

westernpromise

Joeskeppi wrote: »

That whole post is classic.

- HPC101 - Needing prices to fall back to where they were when they started the gamble to make it worthwhile, before you even factor in wasted rent.
- Pretending retiring is an option :laugh:
- The "bombshell" that he was lying through his teeth about moving to France.

The funny thing about that thread is the remarks that a fall of X would take prices back to those of 2009, which would be fine. Of course in 2009 none of them bought because in 2009 they all wanted the price of 2004, and in 2004 they all wanted the price of 1999, etc etc.

MFW_ASAP

westernpromise wrote: »

The funny thing about that thread is the remarks that a fall of X would take prices back to those of 2009, which would be fine. Of course in 2009 none of them bought because in 2009 they all wanted the price of 2004, and in 2004 they all wanted the price of 1999, etc etc.

That's what I was thinking. They are falling into the usual trap of over-analysing an issue to the point where they are incapable of actually making a decision.

Some are determined to buy at the bottom of a crash, but forget that you only know what the bottom in the current cycle was once you are in recovery. They miss it and then have to wait for the next correction (but need a bigger correction to make up for the rent they pay in the meantime)

Some have set an unrealistic margin (50%, 70%, etc.) that will never be reached, so they will never buy.

The rest are probably home owners who have too much time on their hands and pretend to rent s they can troll the poor fools who base massive financial decisions on the 'advice' of internet experts. It wouldn't surprise me if the count of nowhere and bruce banner are BTL landlords who are on the site trying to dissuade renters from becoming buyers.

Fools, the lot of them.

chucknorris

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

Fools, the lot of them.

But that isn't so bad, if everyone else was a genius, we'd have to empty the bins. No offence meant to waste management engineers, in realty it isn't a bad job, a friend's brother used to do it. I remember once he told me that someone threw out Hornby train set (in its box too).

wotsthat

mwpt wrote: »

Your argument will always be summed up as "they were wrong", and I can't argue with that. Except, some of the posters on there tend to shy away from predictions, they are concerned with moral issues and/or actual analysis of what might happen.

It's possible to be an excellent debater, have high intellect and a logical mind, to have high morals and to possess all the answers - and still be very very wrong.

There's one poster like this on HPC who I find very convincing but he STR'ed in the South-East in 2011/12 so despite his excellent analysis was no better equipped to make the correct call than anyone else.

It appears to have driven him quite insane and he's appointed himself chief of the HPC Inquisition searching out inconsistencies in people's backstories and outing trolls.

caronoel

chucknorris wrote: »

But that isn't so bad, if everyone else was a genius, we'd have ...

...no recruitment consultants for truck drivers in Northampton, oops I mean the south of France

Corrected that sentence for you chucky

:rotfl: