Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

edited 12 July 2021 at 11:38AM in Green & Ethical MoneySaving
6.8K replies 443.9K views
1637638640642643685

Replies

  • edited 13 January at 6:29PM
    Martyn1981Martyn1981 Forumite
    13K Posts
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited 13 January at 6:29PM
    QrizB said:
    Thanks for sharing the CfD article, I've been following the Levy Dashboard at https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/dashboards/cfd/levy-dashboards for a few months now.
    It's fascinating to see how high wholesale FF prices mean the CfD-funded renewables are currently not "expensive" and may act as a (small) stabilising factor on energy bills.

    Yeah I've been following it too since you mentioned it back in Q4, many thanks. [Q4 2021 payments went negative at ~£123m.]

    What I find most amazing is that there is a net refund today, despite the existing schemes having the highest (earliest) CfD's, and the later/cheaper ones aren't on line yet. So hopefully the expansion of RE generation will have a double impact, both by reducing the amount of gas, and the effect that gas price spikes have, and also the newer RE that comes on line will have lower CfD strike prices. The example that still blows my mind is the early offshore wind CfD's at ~£175/MWh, and the latest (for delievery around 2024/25) of ~£46/MWh.

    [Edit - Should also point out, that when those earliest schemes reach the end of their 15yr subsidy, they will still be operational, and generating subsidy free for perhaps 5-10yrs+  for wind, and 15-20yrs+ for PV. So that will help to push prices down too. M.]

    Perhaps it's also a nice reminder that whilst some RE is intermittent and variable and gets criticised and knocked for that, we are also at the mercy of variable FF prices/spikes too.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • EVandPVEVandPV Forumite
    2.1K Posts
    1,000 Posts Second Anniversary Name Dropper
    ✭✭✭✭
    These three articles from Renews are all about the same story, the recent ScotWind offshore wind lease auction, but it's such important news, and smallish articles that I couldn't choose between them. 17 projects have been awarded option agreements which total 25GW. For scale, that's 2.5x the whole current UK fleet.
    Wow !!! 😮 😮😮
    Scott in Fife, 2.9kwp pv SSW facing, 2.7kw Fronius inverter installed Jan 2012
    9.6kwh Pylontech battery storage with Lux ac controller
    Renault Zoe 40kwh, Zappi EV charger and Octopus Go
  • Martyn1981Martyn1981 Forumite
    13K Posts
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    And in the Spring we should get the results of the 2021 CfD auction, which could be very interesting.

    Another decade of rolling out roughly 3.5% RE each year, would displace most of the gas generation (on a net basis) if we have enough interconnectors to handle excess/shortfalls.

    Actually, I suppose it's more like 14yrs as nuclear (20% of gen) will be aging out and HPC will replace 7%. And then we have to account for space heating moving to leccy, and a bit for BEV's. It all looks so possible if we just ramp up deployments a bit, and this news shows that that is entirely doable, especially as RE generation costs fall.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • shinytopshinytop Forumite
    1.7K Posts
    Fifth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    ✭✭✭
    And in the Spring we should get the results of the 2021 CfD auction, which could be very interesting.

    Another decade of rolling out roughly 3.5% RE each year, would displace most of the gas generation (on a net basis) if we have enough interconnectors to handle excess/shortfalls.

    Actually, I suppose it's more like 14yrs as nuclear (20% of gen) will be aging out and HPC will replace 7%. And then we have to account for space heating moving to leccy, and a bit for BEV's. It all looks so possible if we just ramp up deployments a bit, and this news shows that that is entirely doable, especially as RE generation costs fall.
    I could probably do this myself but what would, say, 2020 demand look like in terms of generation mix after 14 years if that happened and nothing else changed and we had the same RE performance as 2020?   

    (I really hope someone somewhere has worked this out but part of me doubts it)
  • edited 17 January at 3:33PM
    Martyn1981Martyn1981 Forumite
    13K Posts
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited 17 January at 3:33PM
    shinytop said:
    And in the Spring we should get the results of the 2021 CfD auction, which could be very interesting.

    Another decade of rolling out roughly 3.5% RE each year, would displace most of the gas generation (on a net basis) if we have enough interconnectors to handle excess/shortfalls.

    Actually, I suppose it's more like 14yrs as nuclear (20% of gen) will be aging out and HPC will replace 7%. And then we have to account for space heating moving to leccy, and a bit for BEV's. It all looks so possible if we just ramp up deployments a bit, and this news shows that that is entirely doable, especially as RE generation costs fall.
    I could probably do this myself but what would, say, 2020 demand look like in terms of generation mix after 14 years if that happened and nothing else changed and we had the same RE performance as 2020?   

    (I really hope someone somewhere has worked this out but part of me doubts it)
    I'm not sure I understand the question, but I'll take a guess as you mentioned the 14yrs bit, so here's a 'back of the napkin' (I don't smoke) guess, but bear in mind interconnectors and storage will become ever more important, so it's extremely basic/simple.

    So, going from a rough figure today (last few years*) we have a mix of about:
    40% RE
    40% FF (mostly nat-gas)
    20% nuclear

    assuming the rough average of a 3.5% shift continues for the next 14yrs, we get:
    89% RE
    4% FF (all nat-gas?)
    7% nuclear

    *Need to bear in mind that 40% RE may be a year or two old, but of course we also have Covid mucking up stats, and a poor wind year in 2021, so without meaning to appear like I'm fudging the numbers, that could lift RE in 14yrs and lower gas to ~zero.

    But please note, whilst I'm very optimistic, I also appreciate that this is a big issue with many complications. We may see RE capacity deployed faster, but perhaps greater waste (spill/curtailment), or maybe we'll have excellent interconnectors and manage peaks and troughs perfectly (yeah bit of a tongue in cheek comment that). Then there's storage, and also BEV's (smallish Issue I believe), and space heating (huge issue I believe). So leccy demand may grow, making it harder to reach the very high percentages in 14yrs, but that's OK if it's displacing FF's in other areas such as transport and space heating.

    [Please don't take this as a prediction, just a potential projection. M.]
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981Martyn1981 Forumite
    13K Posts
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just an addendum, because I mentioned interconnectors. Thought I'd repeat something I posted recently.

    Last year UK interconnectors expanded from 5GW to 7.4GW, and planned additions take the total to ~17GW by 2025. This is really important because on average UK demand is ~40GW (varying from around 20GW in the early summer hours, to about 50GW in the winter between 5-7pm), so 17GW has the potential to make a massive difference to the UK's ability to hit a high RE average penetration, assuming that the rest of Europe has spare RE to export, when we need it, and vice versa.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW)

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
Sign In or Register to comment.
Latest MSE News and Guides