Who will win the UK election ?

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Really? According to Gen their manifesto specifically says those already here will be allowed to stay.

According to me as well.:)

Any European Union citizen who is resident in the UK at the time of the referendum will be permitted to remain and work here.

Obviously, no one can say what approach France or whoever would take to resident UK nationals if there were to be a UK exit, But I imagine they would take a similar approach.

michaels

Two interesting polls just out - Scottish constituency polling suggesting Labour and Tories will both get 2 seats and LDs 1 in Scotland....

And a poll company that has gone from a 5 point Labour lead in their last poll to a 1 point Tory one.

I still think Lab plus LD minority govt is odds on favourite but there are many twists and turns to come when things are this close.

padington

michaels wrote: »

Really? According to Gen their manifesto specifically says those already here will be allowed to stay.

If they rip up the deal with Europe, who knows the backlash that we'll get. They will want to make it bloody clear that it was a foolish move. Expats in France and Spain will be royally rogered one way or another.

UKIP may have promised to honour citizens already here but has Europe promised to honour citizens already there ? Especially when it involves Farage who has been such antagonistic force in Brussels to the point he's hated by the majority of Euro MEP's ?

If we go down that road it's not going to be fun.

http://youtu.be/bypLwI5AQvY

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

...I still think Lab plus LD minority govt is odds on favourite but there are many twists and turns to come when things are this close.

Then you ought to put some money down on it. Currently, it looks like you can get 8-1 on a Labour-LD coalition. Which is a long way from being odds-on.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government

antrobus

padington wrote: »

....UKIP may have promised to honour citizens already here but has Europe promised to honour citizens already there ? ....

I suspect not. I suspect that European politicians have more important things to worry about than what might happen if UKIP win a majority in May.:)

andydiysaver

Point is with this Europe thing is that Cameron thinks exactly like Milliband


- Cameron thinks he needs a referendum to get back in, Milliband doesn't feel he has to go that far because he thinks he's sold the lies about class to enough people that he doesn't need to say it


i.e. cosmetic difference on exactly the same thinking. They both want in, and they both, given even half the chance would block any consultation with the UK general public because in breathtaking arrogance which has become the mainstay of UK politics since the 80's, we're not to be trusted....... by the most deceptive set of liars on the face of the planet - how topsy turvey is that!!!?


So my fear would be this - Cameron gets in- it's no guarantee on a referendum anyway but it's better odds because he knows if not nobody will ever trust him again.... he gets in minority, and in my mind it's almost certainly off the table because the conniving liar will then make the point we didn't trust him completely so he's had a rethink


So again this gets back to Farage, who would have to be, in motive, the devil incarnate to not present a force for good in UK politics whether you are as far right as the BNP or as far left as the greens....


reason must simply be this - the rest have all decided it for us - we are in Europe come what may until the Drachma actually reaches parity with the Deutchmark in real terms rather than the vast differences we see now - ironically it is only then we will see true market conditions prevailing in Europe and the scene aint a pretty one - am I wrong? what happened to the CHF the moment the chocks (restrainers) of the Euro came of it... it went skyward! That's the drachma element of the Euro acting like the heaviest set of sandbags suddenly taken away and you wonder why the CHF suddenly went on a rocket trip


Bottom line is - it's decided for us, these guys treat us with contempt, almost any new blood is good blood because the rot- which is the very essence of arrogance is within and we intelligent people cannot and will not be asked on Europe. Absolute Disgrace.

andydiysaver

or... more to point he's not had a rethink - he can't because suddenly Cleggy's opinion matters and he feels he has to take a more liberal view on Europe to accommodate his (suddenly ) esteemed colleague


you watch it happen if Con/Lib is the victory...

michaels

I am far from pro EU because I think it inevitably leads to a superstate, however I think a referendum is a bigger danger; voters will be bribed/bullied into a yes at which point it will be full speed federal Europe with foot dragging from the uk ignored because of the referendum result.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Really? According to Gen their manifesto specifically says those already here will be allowed to stay.

antrobus wrote: »

According to me as well.:)

Any European Union citizen who is resident in the UK at the time of the referendum will be permitted to remain and work here.

Obviously, no one can say what approach France or whoever would take to resident UK nationals if there were to be a UK exit, But I imagine they would take a similar approach.

Yup, UKIP are very clear in their manifesto: there will be no forced repatriation from the UK of anyone who migrated legally from the EU in the event of a UKIP Government being formed.

Quite right too frankly. Regardless of your views on migrants the operational nightmare of trying to kick x,000,000 people out of the UK would be unbelievably hard. The problems are obvious really.

andydiysaver

I'm an optimist here - I think we're smarter than they give us credit for which they know - which is why they won't let us vote ourselves out. Give us the chance, we'll do it


I am absolutely 100% against a superstate, it's an enormous con - to say that the drachma is at parity with the deutchmark - it's not about culture or race - it's simply one currency is stronger than the other, and the EU club of career politicians want us to accept a 1:1 ratio - totally artificial and gives Farage every argument in the book to say the markets don't agree- because they don't


more than that it's too much power in one place- how dare an elite club made up of ex premiers, billionaires, financiers, bankers.... decide this is it for us, sleepwalking us to complete dystopia - more than that if you asked most of the rest of the members they'd say no too - which is why they don't do it. How soft have we become that we defeat the Nazis, and yet let ridiculous levels of power emanate from one place and one place only.. this was once an issue for people being out on the streets, I'm afraid now, a referendum is prob last fair deal on the table before there aren't any more deals to take.


I think we've been subdued and our grandfathers would be on the streets about this but I still think if they gave us the dignity of asking us we'd manage to muster up enough courage to say no... I think it's be pretty comprehensive also - perhaps 75:25, which they know, which is why they daren't ask.