Who will win the UK election ?

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No what she said was

Nothing else. Miliband answered using the fact he was ruling a coalition, that had already been ruled out, out.

Those were the facts of what was said last night. She didn't say she wouldn't work with him. However, a deal based on Confidence and Supply is out for the SNP as long as Trident renewal is on the agenda for Labour.

The SNP, on a vote by vote basis, will vote against a Tory minority government after May 7th, leaving Labour to decide if they will too. If Labour also vote against a Tory minority govt, ( again if the numbers are there after May 7th am not assuming anything just to be clear ) ... then Ed will be PM, supported by the SNP, Greens, Plaid, on a vote by vote basis. No-one knows yet how the Lib Dems will jump.

It's once that government is formed that the Fixed Term Parliament Act then makes things very complicated. Because it means that the smaller parties can vote for or against or abstain on anything they like, without risk of causing another election. This would make life difficult for Labour if Tories have more seats in passing legislation for the next 5 years. <--- This is where the power lies.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/labour-manifesto-the-important-thing-wasnt-happening-in-manchester-at-all-it-was-happening-in-scotland-10173763.html

In fact we could end up in a ridiculous situation of a government desperate to vote itself out of office, but unable to because 2 thirds of parliament won't do so.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/03/the-fixed-term-parliament-act-threatens-years-more-political-deadlock.html

Yes but that is just an SNP wet dream. Posting all this opinion as fact is ridiculous.

The fact is that unionist parties aren't going to be held to ransom by 2% of the electorate. It simply won't happen even if you really super duper ooper wish that it would.

The fact is that Unionist parties are standing solely against other Unionist parties in a massive majority of seats. Unionism is what the people of Britain want and it's what they vote for.

2% of Britons might vote for the SNP. There is no way that they will run the UK as a result.

Can't you just go back to posting on the Scottish threads? Please do that.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Yes but that is just an SNP wet dream. Posting all this opinion as fact is ridiculous.

The fact is that unionist parties aren't going to be held to ransom by 2% of the electorate. It simply won't happen even if you really super duper ooper wish that it would.

The fact is that Unionist parties are standing solely against other Unionist parties in a massive majority of seats. Unionism is what the people of Britain want and it's what they vote for.

2% of Britons might vote for the SNP. There is no way that they will run the UK as a result.

Can't you just go back to posting on the Scottish threads? Please do that.

No. I'll post here on the relevant subject at hand if you don't mind.. I didn't say the SNP 'would be running' the UK. This thread is about who will win the General Election. I was simply commenting on the arithmetic and misreporting of what Sturgeon said, last night. No-one can 'bring down' a Conservative minority bid for government, unless Labour does so itself based on the current polling arithmetic. FACT.

That is the correct information. I wouldn't want anyone speculating on this election using or assuming the wrong info.. would you ? The power, the deals and horse trading that goes on afterwards, is made more complicated by the FTPA. This also a fact going into this general election. There's no point burying one's head in the sand over the SNP/Lib Dems or indeed any of the smaller parties over this. Nor trying to somehow cram the old binary way governments are elected, and retain power in the UK into this particular election. It doesn't work, things have changed electorally, the FTPA makes things even more muddy...and all of the above is why this election is wide open.

All facts. Not opinions. I think it's others that are stuck in dreams of 2010. Time to face some realities.

Shakethedisease

michaels wrote: »

Fixed term parliaments are a problem? How do the huge number of countries around the world with the same thing cope?

I don't think it's a problem for the smaller parties. It's Labour and the Tories that would be a bit hamstrung by it. ( I posted the last link from Conservativehome ).

ShandyAndy_2

UKIP if anyones got any sense and votes for them!

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Fixed term parliaments are a problem? How do the huge number of countries around the world with the same thing cope?

Like, err, Scotland you mean?

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No what she said was ...

Ed Miliband has clashed with Nicola Sturgeon after she said she would only back him as PM if he rejected austerity and was "better than the Tories".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32328664

If you think that's wrong, feel free to complain to the BBC.:)

Herzlos

That's certainly what she said when I was watching.

ShandyAndy wrote: »

UKIP if anyones got any sense and votes for them!

Why?

If we get a UKIP majority, I'm moving to Europe whilst they'll still let me.

purch

antrobus wrote: »

If you think that's wrong, feel free to complain to the BBC.

Or my ears, cos that's what they heard.

padington

Herzlos wrote: »

That's certainly what she said when I was watching.



Why?

If we get a UKIP majority, I'm moving to Europe whilst they'll still let me.

You'll get recalled if UKIP kick our euro nationals. UKIP on the horizon have placed a big question mark over all our previous expectations as citizens. Business must hate it even more.

michaels

padington wrote: »

You'll get recalled if UKIP kick our euro nationals. UKIP on the horizon have placed a big question mark over all our previous expectations as citizens. Business must hate it even more.

Really? According to Gen their manifesto specifically says those already here will be allowed to stay.