Who will win the UK election ?

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Thanks for your thoughts.

I still think a coalition with the lib dems works better for labour if this give them a majority excluding the SNP and Sein Fein rather than having to call on them on a vote by vote basis.

I'm sure that a coalition with the Lib Dems works better for Labour if this give them a majority. Of course, it would also have to work better for the Lib Dems as well.

The point would be that your suggested numbers of 285 Lab and 25 Lib does not equal a majority. And looking at where the seat predictions are at the moment - http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/ - it would seem that Labour are in the range 266-276 and Lib Dems in the range 22-28. In those circumstances, I think the LDs may well follow the same path as the SNP.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Thanks for your thoughts.

I still think a coalition with the lib dems works better for labour if this give them a majority excluding the SNP and Sein Fein rather than having to call on them on a vote by vote basis.

Have Sinn Fein started taking their seats? They traditionally refused to swear the oath required.

padington

An Informal coalition of the three old school parties could still be a goer ...

I imagine the Tories would be happy to accept informal suport if

A) The Mansion tax watered down into a council tax review. Just upping tax on everyone with property slightly, with more from those with bigger properties.
Non Dom rules reviewed by an independent body based on whether it could make more money than lose
C) Labour promised to stick to a higher rate of national debt repayment by limiting proposed spending by 'x' amount more than planned every year.

All of which, the electorate would probably be quite happy to accept and not beat labour up over (rather than feeling that Scotland has the hands on the steering wheel in all but name) and such an agreement would relieve people wanting to continue investing in all things British, so the economy should remain ok for another five years & should offer Labour more hope of winning more votes in Scotland in the future rather than marrying labours success with SNP's.

Question is, does Ed want to be cajoled to the right or to the left and who does he trust more ?

michaels

Generali wrote: »

Have Sinn Fein started taking their seats? They traditionally refused to swear the oath required.

My suggestion is that Sinn Fein won't take their seats and the SNP won't vote to bring down a labour minority govt and trigger another election so a workable coalition for Labour would be 310 seats rather than 325/323.

N1AK

antrobus wrote: »

Yes, but the SNP will be gaining seats at the expense of Labour and the LibDems. The only thing that the SNP are doing is making it harder for Labour to get a majority.

True, and that doesn't change anything that I said. SNP seats won't automatically stop Labour forming a minority government, whereas they will stop the conservatives from doing so if they can't get more seats than Labour + SNP combined.

I actually think Ed Milliband gets a lot unfair criticism for not polling better in this election. If it wasn't for the rise of the SNP, which I think has little to do with him, then he'd be on course to not only win but likely form a majority government. You have to go back over 30 years to find the last time someone beat the incumbent party after just one term in office.

Castle

michaels wrote: »

My suggestion is that Sinn Fein won't take their seats and the SNP won't vote to bring down a labour minority govt and trigger another election so a workable coalition for Labour would be 310 seats rather than 325/323.

Agreed; assuming the polls are right, Labour's sole intention should be to ensure they are the largest party and that a LAB/LIB arrangement would bring them close to 310.

I don't think that Sinn Fein have ever voted in the commons and the SNP don't want to be blamed for voting with the Tories and causing another election. That would only help Labour in Scotland.

N1AK

Cyberman60 wrote: »

Thankfully I'm retired so do not have to worry about having a job, high interest rates and civil disturbance as I'll disappear abroad.

If we'll lose people like you if Labour get in then that's just another reason to vote for them!

I suggest you look up what viable means, I know your a stuck record, but do you really have to spout the same parroted nonsense in every post regardless of its irrelevance...

Castle

N1AK wrote: »

You have to go back over 30 years to find the last time someone beat the incumbent party after just one term in office.

February 1974 I think from memory.

Voltaire7

antrobus wrote: »

The only thing that the SNP are doing is making it harder for Labour to get a majority.

Interesting take on how elections work.

The only thing any party is doing is making it harder for any other party to gain a majority.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Have Sinn Fein started taking their seats? They traditionally refused to swear the oath required.

They have no taken their seats so far. I don't expect them to this time around either. Which takes at least 4 seats, and possibly 5 (depending on Fermanagh) out of the equation.