Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Shakethedisease

HornetSaver wrote: »

I presume you mean Ireland (the only directly relevant example) which is hardly an example of an orderly transition. They did it the way they did it because more palatable options were not there.

Unless of course you are referring to overseas colonies which were clearly too large and too distant to remain part of a centralized British Empire.

That precedent, and those conditions, included a bilateral agreement on the fact that the referendum would be binding and how it would be conducted. Barring a constitutional crisis, it would be at least a decade before a referendum held without agreement with Westminster would be likely to be considered to meet that by countries who would otherwise be neutral on the subject. And barring Brexit it'd be at least that long before Westminster would recognize a vote. I'm not saying that's right or wrong, simply that that's what would happen.

Completely agree on the brackets (though give Cameron credit where it's due, to agree to the referendum was historically unusual in and of itself, particularly given that his party had little to lose by acting like the Spanish would have in the same situation).

As for the rest, calling a disputed referendum when the union permitted one less than a decade ago would amount to a UDI. I'm not saying that to do so anyway would necessarily be wrong, merely that it would be a unilateral move and that that would have its downsides.

Agreed, except I take the view that there might be another Holyrood election in 2019, if there are grounds to think the Tories won't be the largest party after 2020 (or, in theory, if the SNP had any reason to believe that they might not walk it a year or two later, but that seems extremely unlikely).

To answer you in simple terms. The Holyrood election will be in 2021. The Tories reelected in 2020. In between,if there's no EU exit, the SNP will call a 'consultative' referendum just after the Tories are put back into power. Labour voters in Scotland will be in despair.

Yes will win. As all previous No voters ( generally Labour ) will weigh up an independent Scotland, against a Tory dominated Westminster. Scottish Labour by then will allow anyone who wishes to to campaign for a Yes vote. The leader/deputy may even come out for it. At the present time, unlike in 2014 when there were screeds of Labour MP's knocking doors and dominating headlines.. there is no Westminster Labour in Scotland now apart from 1 MP. There will be no BetterTogether, no EU 'threats', no Vow's, further powers and oil prices by then will have been so low, for so long it will have become the 'norm' ( ie not news anymore ).

Westminster will wail and try to stop it. But this in turn will only strengthen a Yes vote. Boris Johnson potentially the next PM will not help matters. In fact, he may even encourage 'Jocks' to go for it.

There are two countries in the Act of Union 1707. If one wishes to leave via fair and democratic means in seeking self-determination, then that I'm afraid will be that. However, 5 years away is a long time in politics. And anything can happen. At the moment the best chance none of the above will happen, is Labour, and a left leaning Labour at that.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

I see no reason why Scots would vote for self induced penury just because Westminster has a semi permanent Tory majority.
I think most will be happy to enjoy a £1700 per capita subsidy from London being spent by a SNP Holyrood at least for a generation or two.

Well then you don't know much of Scottish politics at all.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

To answer you in simple terms. The Holyrood election will be in 2021. The Tories reelected in 2020. In between,if there's no EU exit, the SNP will call a 'consultative' referendum just after the Tories are put back into power. Labour voters in Scotland will be in despair.

Yes will win. As all previous No voters ( generally Labour ) will weigh up an independent Scotland, against a Tory dominated Westminster. Scottish Labour by then will allow anyone who wishes to to campaign for a Yes vote. The leader/deputy may even come out for it. At the present time, unlike in 2014 when there were screeds of Labour MP's knocking doors and dominating headlines.. there is no Westminster Labour in Scotland now apart from 1 MP. There will be no BetterTogether, no EU 'threats', no Vow's, further powers and oil prices by then will have been so low, for so long it will have become the 'norm' ( ie not news anymore ).

Westminster will wail and try to stop it. But this in turn will only strengthen a Yes vote. Boris Johnson potentially the next PM will not help matters. In fact, he may even encourage 'Jocks' to go for it.

There are two countries in the Act of Union 1707. If one wishes to leave via fair and democratic means in seeking self-determination, then that I'm afraid will be that. However, 5 years away is a long time in politics. And anything can happen. At the moment the best chance none of the above will happen, is Labour, and a left leaning Labour at that.

All the No case has to do is point out that even if Scotland walks away from all of the debt, Scotland will be insolvent at current levels of spending.

Do you really think that the Scots will vote to destroy the welfare state?

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Shakey, genuine question here.

I accept you believe that is the case (although I disagree with you).

But do you think it is because....

1) Voters do not understand the enormity of the cuts and austerity that would be made?

2) Voters do not believe those cuts would be made, and we'd find a way to muddle through?

or

3) Voters understand the country would be screwed, and don't care?

Genuine answer. I don't think anyone believes it's as bad as folk like you make out anymore. There's been so much thrown at Scotland in terms of doom, I think most are getting immune to it all. Oil prices as they are now are bad ( <--simplistic) for the Scottish economy. But the flip side to that is that nothing will ever change regarding that while still in the union. ( 'Green crap' anyone ?).

If it really boils down to whom is trusted to do the best for the Scottish economy in the future. Sadly for you it's never, ever going to be the Conservatives. And these days, Labour either.

None of your questions are genuine. You must see better than most people here what's happening around you. It wasn't so long ago we were crossing swords about even the notion of holding a referendum when the SNP got their 2011 victory... ( some posters like Hornetsaver seem to want to repeat the same debate )...

Fond memories of back in the days when you and Generali thought that the referendum would be 75/25% against... IF Westminster allowed it to happen.. and I was just some loony poster who liked the idea of Devo Max. You can't surely now be so blind that you can't see the path Scotland is on, and accelerating towards ?
Even if you don't like it ? SNP dominating in Scotland and the Conservatives in England... can only possibly lead to one thing. Whatever the MP 'scandal's', oil prices and headlines. They're all just a side show. They make no difference in the big scheme of things. Lesley Riddoch's Grand National analogy sums it all up really well..

First time around, independence was like a headstrong steed, hardly saddled up before it was running the political equivalent of the Grand National – a long steeplechase with no warm-up and a headlong race for the finishing line. Hardly the best way to develop truly winning arguments – but probably all that could be managed at the time.

Now though, things are different. Independence is not yet a clear, majority cause but nor is it a ludicrous proposition – even doubtful voters will seriously consider it. Better Together’s promise of respect and greater involvement in the UK lies exposed as fraudulent. David Cameron has been dismantling democratic dissent by excluding non-English MPs, changing constituency boundaries to further weaken Labour, stuffing the Lords and removing their power to object. His nuclear power-favouring Government has slashed support for the renewables industry, halted Scottish wind, wave and tidal projects in their tracks and made a mockery of his own recent commitment to climate change.

http://www.thenational.scot/comment/lesley-riddoch-the-indy-genies-back-out-of-the-bottle-lets-have-a-debate-this-time.12028

Genuine question. Is the union stuffed ?... and if not, what do you think will bring it back together over the next 5/10 years ?

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

All the No case has to do is point out that even if Scotland walks away from all of the debt, Scotland will be insolvent at current levels of spending.

Do you really think that the Scots will vote to destroy the welfare state?

There will be precious little 'No' case in Scotland if Labour aren't fully behind it all again. Which is highly doubtful. Scottish newspapers and media are Labour leaning, not Conservative leaning. Any Tory MP's coming up and 'telling Scots how it is' is likely to boost Yes support out the park. Just like Osborne did over the £ when Yes was languishing in the polls last time. Yes started climbing almost the day after.

There will be no-one credible to front a No campaign next time if there's a second referendum. Scottish Labour wouldn't touch it with a bargepole. And there's only 1 ( anti-Trident ) Labour MP. Picture the scene... Scottish Labour telling Scot's... stay in the union... so you can have a Tory Government ! That'll go down well. And there's no way the SNP will make the same mistake as they did last time calling a ref just months before a UK General Election.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Genuine answer. I don't think anyone believes it's as bad as folk like you make out anymore. There's been so much thrown at Scotland in terms of doom, I think most are getting immune to it all.

So ignorance/denial/disbelief then.

And if people like you, can convince enough people to vote yes, and it turns out people such as me are right and we end up like Greece with...

25% unemployment
Today's generation financially stuffed for their lifetime
People losing their savings and houses
Banks collapsing with no way to save them
Cost of living and taxes rising
Austerity Max cuts with the NHS budget slashed & services/benefits cut by 25% or more

Is that a price you think would be worth it?

If I am right, and that happens, and it lasts for a several decades...

Is that a price worth paying for you?

Another genuine question - is there any price you don't think the people of Scotland would judge as worth it for indy?

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So ignorance/denial/disbelief then.

And if people like you, can convince enough people to vote yes, and it turns out people such as me are right and we end up like Greece with...

25% unemployment
Today's generation financially stuffed for their lifetime
People losing their savings and houses
Banks collapsing with no way to save them
Cost of living and taxes rising
Austerity Max cuts with the NHS budget slashed & services/benefits cut by 25% or more

Is that a price you think would be worth it?

If I am right, and that happens, and it lasts for a several decades...

Is that a price worth paying for you?

Another genuine question - is there any price you don't think the people of Scotland would judge as worth it for indy?

No Hamish. There's just a bigger and much longer term picture to be had. In purely basic terms it's who is best placed to govern best in Scotland's interests in the future... I read your posts with interest. But you're prone to hyperbole ( see the named person's thing ).. and basing your arguments absolutely and unquestioningly on 'reports' which are so obviously biased, and all towards one side. That doesn't make them true. I simply argue that the other side perhaps has more merit, if equally biased in nature. ( It makes for interesting debate here if nothing else ).

If there's to be another referendum. It will be debated over the next few years without any pressure on, while oil prices are at their lowest in decades and the risks are highest. People can make up their own minds.

My contention is that while the economics of an iScotland are risky. Of course they are. The politics regarding the independence debate are taking over to the extent that the economics that won the first independence referendum.. are almost becoming irrelevant. Scots aren't going to keep voting to stay in a Conservative dominated Westminster for very long. You must know that ?

That's not denial. It's pointing out the very, very, totally and unequivocally blindingly obvious.

At it's most basic, you're asking my dad. An old dyed in the wool shop steward union man Labour till I die voter, who cannot stand the SNP and voted No... to consider once again voting No only to have Boris Johnson or George Osborne dish out 'hand outs' and stage every General Election as if 'Scots are pickpockets', and no Scottish MP will ever be PM again because of EVEL.
Which way do you think he'll go next time if the Conservatives are in power 2020 ?

And @string... you'll LOVE this one..

A devolved Scotland may effectively stay in the EU even if the rest of the UK backs Brexit, a think tank believes. The country could not be a member state of the bloc without becoming independent, stresses the Brussels-based Friends of Europe in a major new paper.
But Scotland, the think tank argues, could both stay in the UK and forge a new and "differentiated" relationship with the EU across swathes of policy areas.
This unprecedented arrangement, suggests the FoE, could allow the nation to keep many current benefits of membership without splitting from the rest of the UK.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/14190417.Could_a_devolved_Scotland_effectively_stay_in_the_EU_after_Brexit_/

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No Hamish.

You have again completely avoided my questions.

I know you don't want to believe these are likely outcomes.

But that's not what I'm asking.

So I'll ask again...

If people like you, can convince enough people to vote yes, and it turns out people such as me are right and we end up like Greece with...

25% unemployment
Today's generation financially stuffed for their lifetime
People losing their savings and houses
Banks collapsing with no way to save them
Cost of living and taxes rising
Austerity Max cuts with the NHS budget slashed & services/benefits cut by 25% or more

Is that a price you think would be worth it?

If I am right, and that happens, and it lasts for a several decades...

Is that a price worth paying for you?

Another genuine question - is there any price you don't think the people of Scotland would judge as worth it for indy?

skintmacflint

Shakethedisease wrote: »

A few months before the referendum I posted here that forgetting the referendum, the SNP strangely seem to be starting to gain ground in Westminster polls.. and wouldn't it be interesting if they lost the referendum only to..... I got absolute pelters. You can imagine right ?

If I had listened to posts like yours ( and believe me I do ), and taken any of them at all seriously, or to heart however...I'd still be wondering why the Conservatives or Labour hadn't swept the board in Scotland May 15 as folks like you and most of Scottish Labour were 'wishfully thinking'. And why Fatty Salmond ( giggle giggle ) hadn't retired in complete disgrace from politics altogether. The SNP on a dismal 2 Westminster seats crushed after the referendum loss.

I'd say on the whole, I reflect rather well, a fair old swathe of current Scottish opinion. I'm also quite confident in my posts of what I hear and see going on around me politically daily. Even if you don't agree with my views.

I stated SNP would win plenty of seats at the GE, and 2016 could very likely see Scotland as a single party state by democratic choice.

Logical deduction if you analysed the number of people who voted Yes by areas, which I had. And assumed they would likely vote SNP , while the number of people who voted No, would be split between several different parties.

Are you getting threads mixed up , or just making things up as you go along as usual again? I can't recall anyone on this thread, least of all me suggesting Labour nor Conservatives would sweep the board in Scotland in 2015? Nor that Salmond would disappear in disgrace into oblivion. No such luck. Although I think Nicola Selfie probably wishes he would for a wee while.

Your views and opinions are perfectly acceptable for you to have in a democratic society. But I wouldn't say you reflect the views or opinions of the majority of Scots. You don't even reflect the views of all SNP/Yes voters. IMO. Or at least the many I know, and some of the SNP people I know would certainly surprise you. Lol.

But seems as how you're so self confident in your capabilities what % turnout are you predicting for the H/R elections in May compared to the GE?

skintmacflint

Shakethedisease wrote: »

At it's most basic, you're asking my dad. An old dyed in the wool shop steward union man Labour till I die voter, who cannot stand the SNP and voted No... to consider once again voting No only to have Boris Johnson or George Osborne dish out 'hand outs' and stage every General Election as if 'Scots are pickpockets', and no Scottish MP will ever be PM again because of EVEL.
Which way do you think he'll go next time if the Conservatives are in power 2020

Has your Dad told you he would vote Yes then? I'm assuming he hasn't.

I'm in my early 70's, so obviously have a different outlook, in that my years are limited. Assuming your Dad is ages with me, he will have lived through several governments, and experienced various ups, downs and losses in his life, financial and otherwise.

I'm guessing his decision will be based on whether he wants to watch his extended family sacrificing the best years of their youth experiencing financial hardship on the premise of an idealistic dream, he knows is unlikely to be realised in their lifetimes.

But I could be wrong.