Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're right to treat that poll with caution. But in terms of swings etc larger swings are needed in previously held 'rock solid' Labour seats with huge 20,000+ majorities. Much less of a swing is needed in other seats where it's Lib Dem's or (1) Tory. Where you say the will win 'massive majorities' in places where they already hold power... you're only talking about 6 seats. So when there are predictions of winning 30 or more, you have to remember what a stunning turnaround that would be, no matter what happens afterwards.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/comres-poll-of-labour-seats-confirms-labours-difficulties/

And even worse..

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/cracking-comres-poll-of-all-labour-held.html

Most of the election forecasters at the moment are predicting a hung parliament at the moment. Guess we'll see in a few weeks.

It's looking increasingly like a hung parliament. How that plays out is anyone's guess. It may well come down to where it's raining (generally speaking, left wing voters vote less when the weather is bad IIRC) or whether someone does something stupid.

You are really amplifying my earlier point re voting intentions and prior voting. When how people plan to vote changes so dramatically it's basically impossible to make a reliable poll. It's completely fair to say, IMHO, that the SNP is well ahead in Scotland. To make a solid claim that the lead is 5% or 20% is ridiculous.

As you say, we'll see what will happen in a few weeks. I hope that the SNP doesn't get any kind of sniff of power, I doubt you agree. The wonderful thing about democracy is we can each hold our views and nobody has to go to gaol.

kabayiri

I rather think that when the winning party/group arrive in office, the enormity of the challenge will hit them. Maybe mundane politics will be the dominating theme.

What was the last treasury note left? Something akin to "There's no money left in the safe. Good luck"

Well, the note this time around will read "You thought the last note was depressing? This time, we had to sell the safe!"

CLAPTON

I'm sure we will all celebrate when Scotland becomes a one party state with the media controlled by the ruling party (in the interest of fairness and balance)

not long to wait now, apparently

ruggedtoast

elantan wrote: »

Was away to listen to the Big Man last night, had a wee tear and a laugh and got to kiss the big man on the cheek ...

You did what to the who?

ruggedtoast

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're right to treat that poll with caution. But in terms of swings etc larger swings are needed in previously held 'rock solid' Labour seats with huge 20,000+ majorities. Much less of a swing is needed in other seats where it's Lib Dem's or (1) Tory. Where you say the will win 'massive majorities' in places where they already hold power... you're only talking about 6 seats. So when there are predictions of winning 30 or more, you have to remember what a stunning turnaround that would be, no matter what happens afterwards.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/comres-poll-of-labour-seats-confirms-labours-difficulties/

And even worse..

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/cracking-comres-poll-of-all-labour-held.html

Most of the election forcasters at the moment are predicting a hung parliament at the moment. Guess we'll see in a few weeks.

Shakey, you have a one hundred per cent record for being one hundred per cent wrong with predicting Scotland's political decisions.

Is there anything else you would like to turn your crystal ball to?

I would be quite interested to know which horse won't win the next Grand National, or failing that, who not to bet on for the next FA Cup.

:rotfl:

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

It's looking increasingly like a hung parliament. How that plays out is anyone's guess. It may well come down to where it's raining (generally speaking, left wing voters vote less when the weather is bad IIRC) or whether someone does something stupid.

You are really amplifying my earlier point re voting intentions and prior voting. When how people plan to vote changes so dramatically it's basically impossible to make a reliable poll. It's completely fair to say, IMHO, that the SNP is well ahead in Scotland. To make a solid claim that the lead is 5% or 20% is ridiculous.

As you say, we'll see what will happen in a few weeks. I hope that the SNP doesn't get any kind of sniff of power, I doubt you agree. The wonderful thing about democracy is we can each hold our views and nobody has to go to gaol.

No, I was rather making the point that Labour aren't actually catching up as yet polling wise it seems. Just in case. If only because there are an awful lot of Twitterings, Facebook, newspaper articles, commentary and Jim Murphy himself in an interview this morning... saying things like 'now that Scottish Labour is only 6 points behind in the polls'.. and 'whooo back in the game' . I thought it pertinent to point the flaws out with that particular poll.

And no, of course I don't agree with you about the SNP not getting a sniff of power. However, being at Westminster is not be and end all.

Oh and I missed a post of yours yesterday saying something like 'bet they'll want their subsidy' till oil prices rebound. As long as Scottish taxes go to the treasury, then Scots will get something back. FFA ( imo ) is being played down significantly in the run up to the election. Because Scottish Labour are/were looking likely to try re-running the referendum campaign, but on FFA via newspapers like the Daily Record. But it's not gaining much traction...yet. And anyway, we've heard it all before much too recently.

It's definitely weird seeing all that '100 businesses' stuff against Labour today in the Telegraph rather than the SNP/Yes ( like a few months ago ) though. :eek:

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Shakey, you have a one hundred per cent record for being one hundred per cent wrong with predicting Scotland's political decisions.

Is there anything else you would like to turn your crystal ball to?

I would be quite interested to know which horse won't win the next Grand National, or failing that, who not to bet on for the next FA Cup.

:rotfl:

Not biting sorry. Give up luv.

.string.

Leanne1812 wrote: »

...String, I am a scots born working homeowner so where does that square with what you say about who likes SNP? If I can go back to the Yes movement is say that SNP supporters are very diverse. I think I can say that collectively we think change at the heart of gov is needed. Is it a protest vote? Who knows.......another few weeks and we'll see if our democracy is quite as democratic as it claims to be.

So many posts since I last looked through them all, so sorry about delay.

Leanne, I don't know what remark of mine you are referring to I'm afraid. As far as I recal I've not said anything about house-owners being supporters of the SNP and don't see why I should.

I did say once that I thought that anyone who belonged to a political party had lost their objectivity (or words to that effect). That's for all parties though, and some would be worse than others depending on the fanaticism involved. the SNP scores highly on that I reckon, but that's not to do with houses.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Not biting sorry. Give up luv.

You didn't respond to my Cold Turkey suggestion Shakey?

Prove that Scotland can operate on a balanced budget when the rest of the Union is still racking up on the deficit.

It would certainly test the mettle of the ruling SNP, but then it would prove you had leaders willing to take the tough decisions needed. The mandate for independence would only be strengthened.

Sounds a plan eh?

kabayiri

Leanne1812 wrote: »

She's doing it because that is the truth. That is the situation we are in. We are a part of the Union, a supposedly valued part though to read this thread you'd wonder..........
...

You can't really expect to be seen as a "valued part" when a lot of the communications coming from the SNP is about the desire to be a "non part" though.

How does that work?