Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

kabayiri

Leanne1812 wrote: »

...
Isn't that what happens all the time in politics? " you scratch my back & I'll do yours".
...

It doesn't seem to have worked for the LibDems, an example of a small party working alongside a much bigger party in government.

They have been marginalised and now risk losing seats.

elantan

http://www.stirlingsnp.com/alex-salmond-to-return-as-snp-party-leader/ ah wiz there last night, The big man did say this

MFW_ASAP

The SNP want to scrap Trident and the House of Lords. I can't vote for them as I'm not in Scotland, so I'm voting Green in England.

Generali

elantan wrote: »

http://www.stirlingsnp.com/alex-salmond-to-return-as-snp-party-leader/ ah wiz there last night, The big man did say this

If Alex wins the seat of Gordon, he will resume as party leader, and Nicola will return to her former role as Deputy though remaining in place as First Minister.

Doesn't that rather depend on the views of the party members. I realise (per HAMISH's excellent post) that the SNP is a corrupt, nepotistic organisation but the party constitution is very clear on things in rule 15.7:

The Leader and Depute Leader shall be elected annually in a vote of all members of the Party conducted in accordance with the Leadership Election Rules

http://www.snp.org/sites/default/files/assets/documents/constitutionofthescottishnationalparty.pdf

Mr Salmond can no more declare himself to be leader of the SNP than I can. Mrs(Ms?) Sturgeon might have something to say about it for a start.

browniej

Generali wrote: »

Mr Salmond can no more declare himself to be leader of the SNP than I can. Mrs(Ms?) Sturgeon might have something to say about it for a start.

Go back and have a read of the date of the article.

Shakethedisease

skintmacflint wrote: »

What are the Daily Records figures and how do they compare to last year? Is it just their figure which is falling or is this happening across the board.

Funny you should say this by the way. I don't buy it, but one of my friends who is an SNP voter does. He thinks it gives a balanced viewpoint which is the opposite of what you think. He also reads the Herald.

Circulation fell under 200,000 for the first time this year. It was down 10%, and down 10% the year before that. All of the Scottish newspapers fell... except the Sunday Herald which was up ( wonder why..).

I subscribe to the Herald myself, and find ( imo ) that it's much more balanced. I haven't read the Daily Record for years.

I'm not doing the 'form' thing because I'd be here all day listing from the other side of the coin and I'm off to the gym shortly. Suffice to say, that we have differing views on 'form' . Do you use social media yourself mcskinflint ? Just out of interest ?

Generali

browniej wrote: »

Go back and have a read of the date of the article.

D'oh!!!

(10 characters)

elantan

He he he he he

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

D'oh!!!

(10 characters)

The Lirpa Loof should deliver all April Fool messages.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2

Latest prediction is that a Lib-Lab pact can govern even if Sinn Fein take their seats which they probably won't. Once you lose 4 Sinn Fein seats, Labour might even be able to rule with Green. The Green Party looks set to get between 2-4x the number of votes of the SNP and UKIP perhaps 8x.

http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ITV-News_Scottish-Labour-Constituencies-Poll_31st-March-2015.pdf

The SNP lead over Labour looks like it might be falling too (Scots realising the implications of FFA?) although as the poll is only of Labour seats it might just be that I'm not comparing like with like. If the SNP hasn't fallen, the implication is that they will win massive majorities where they already hold power and do less well where they don't. Vote concentration is a mixed blessing in a FPTP system.

You're right to treat that poll with caution. But in terms of swings etc larger swings are needed in previously held 'rock solid' Labour seats with huge 20,000+ majorities. Much less of a swing is needed in other seats where it's Lib Dem's or (1) Tory. Where you say the will win 'massive majorities' in places where they already hold power... you're only talking about 6 seats. So when there are predictions of winning 30 or more, you have to remember what a stunning turnaround that would be, no matter what happens afterwards.

In those seats where the Labour lead over the SNP was less than 30 points in 2010, Labour’s vote is down by ten points, while the SNP’s tally is up by 23 – a swing to the SNP of 16.5 points. In seats where Labour were between 30 and 40 points ahead, the swing is 17.5 points, while in those constituencies where Labour were more than 40 points the figure is no less than 26 points.


Based as they are on relatively small sample sizes, these figures do have to be treated with some caution. But the fact that they are consistent with previous polling gives the pattern to which they point a degree of credibility. In any event if we take account of ComRes’ breakdown it implies the SNP would capture no less than 36 of the seats Labour won in 2010 (including Falkirk), leaving Labour itself with just five.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/comres-poll-of-labour-seats-confirms-labours-difficulties/

And even worse..

UPDATE II : I've now had a chance to look at the datasets, and they are truly bizarre. ComRes have indeed committed the cardinal sin of weighting by recalled 2010 vote - but when they asked people how they voted in 2010, they didn't even give the SNP as an option! The only options were Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, or "some other party". That approach will take quite a bit of justifying, given that the SNP outpolled both the Tories and the Lib Dems in 2010. (Even in 2010.)

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/cracking-comres-poll-of-all-labour-held.html

Most of the election forcasters at the moment are predicting a hung parliament at the moment. Guess we'll see in a few weeks.