ftse in fee fall- xmas predictions?

chucknorris

ChopperST wrote: »

With the same world events in play as yesterday the index is up over 50 points.

Nothing as irrational as markets.

There appears to be a few threads like this recently. I wonder how many people have opened a S&S ISA chasing returns above cash and who have been spoilt by the last 4-5 years returns, assuming that indices only move in one direction?

When a store has a sale you buy as you achieve greater value, when the markets decline you should do the same.

It's hard for me not to look when I have just invested, I invested another £45k in a vanguard etf yesterday, it promptly went down by another 1%. Of course I know and realise that in the long run, that is irrelevant, but I do tend to check the price a few times the same day as investing (even when I already have £500k invested, I know that it is irrational, but then again I'm only human) then I just forget about it and get on with my life.

ChopperST

I must confess to still checking everyday! :whistle:

Your portfolio is much larger than mine Chuck so fluctuations will be much greater. Keep looking at the historical charts and remember that the markets have survived two world wars, the great depression and the global financial crash and still spun a profit.

(Just a shame you didn't buy in yesterday for todays rises eh? )

dunstonh

It's hard for me not to look when I have just invested, I invested another £45k in a vanguard etf yesterday, it promptly went down by another 1%. Of course I know and realise that in the long run, that is irrelevant, but I do tend to check the price a few times the same day as investing (even when I already have £500k invested, I know that it is irrational, but then again I'm only human) then I just forget about it and get on with my life.

Just you wait until a proper drop occurs and not the minor drops of the last week. That will tell you if you have your risk profile right or not.

A more typical crash is 25%. A once in a generation crash of near 50% (although we have had two of those in the last 15 years) is really where you can feel the head/heart debate going on.

If you are worrying about a 1% loss in a day or two then you are investing above your risk profile. If its just frustration then you are ok.

N1AK

dunstonh wrote: »

Just you wait until a proper drop occurs and not the minor drops of the last week. That will tell you if you have your risk profile right or not.

If you are worrying about a 1% loss in a day or two then you are investing above your risk profile. If its just frustration then you are ok.

I think it comes down to how you define worry. Lose £5k (1% of £500k) and it's not unreasonable to 'worry' that you might lose more tomorrow, or be sad about having £5,000 less.

I could 'afford' to lose everything and start over, it doesn't mean I wouldn't be pretty crushed if it happened.

chucknorris

dunstonh wrote: »

Just you wait until a proper drop occurs and not the minor drops of the last week. That will tell you if you have your risk profile right or not.

A more typical crash is 25%. A once in a generation crash of near 50% (although we have had two of those in the last 15 years) is really where you can feel the head/heart debate going on.

If you are worrying about a 1% loss in a day or two then you are investing above your risk profile. If its just frustration then you are ok.

I wasn't worried at all (which is why I said "Of course I know and realise that in the long run that is irrelevant "), I wouldn't even say that I was frustrated, in fact I was joking about it on another thread, saying I am transferring a cash isa into a SS isa next week, watch it fall again. Shares aren't even my main investment. Property is my main investment and we did go through a 25% correction (about £800k) I wasn't that concerned then, but I must admit I was glad to see the recovery, but I did expect it. My (excluding my wife's assets) 'wealth portfolio' is:


2% Cash
9% DB pension
19% Shares
20% Home
50% Investment property


EDIT: For what its worth my Xmas ftse prediction is 6,700 to 6,849 which I voted on the poll thread that I started.

chucknorris

N1AK wrote: »

I think it comes down to how you define worry. Lose £5k (1% of £500k) and it's not unreasonable to 'worry' that you might lose more tomorrow, or be sad about having £5,000 less.

I could 'afford' to lose everything and start over, it doesn't mean I wouldn't be pretty crushed if it happened.

I don't worry, but I do regret not having more to buy into lower prices, e.g I only invested £1,500 this morning and I am hoping that prices stay lower for a few more days when my cash isa transfer comes through.

jimjames

frugal90 wrote: »

ftse in fee fall

I read this and was very disappointed to find that it wasn't an announcement of another low cost tracker!

gkerr4

i still don't think i'd go short on the FTSE - especially in the run from Nov - Xmas - historically speaking, its gained during this period.

the drops over the last few days are nothing to worry about i don't think - although i could be proved painfully wrong of course!

Wolsey

My prediction is 6749 and then the Ftse would be totally flat as it has been for most of the year. But if you invested for total return and had some good dividends through the year then you would still beat inflation and cash so you would be doing ok If you are a longer term investor

frugal90

sort of predicted this fall- where to from here -up or down
6000 provide a bottom or what?