Economists Urge Scotland to Vote No......

Graham_Devon

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Have you signed up Graham? You seem very taken with them. Top job is going as well...

Yes, obviously.

I mean, I just saw it on the news and felt it was somewhat related to this discussion.

Pretty significant really that the SNP have doubled their member base in 4 days I thought.

But obviously I'm just saying it as I'm now their number one fan.

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

SNP membership is surging. They have now overtaken the lib dems as the UK's third largest party, as reported on the beeb a short while ago.

Membership since the referendum has just about doubled.

Doesn't say much given the proportion of people that one might call activists.

Could be labour defections at that.

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e1yphtuis8/Final_Prediction_140918_Final_Website.pdf

Thanks,
Just a summary though and not the full detail.

IveSeenTheLight

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Why is it is the poll you don't agree with that is guilty of "selective bracketing" and not the one which shows what you want it to show?

I never said I agreed with wither poll, just showing another poll that had a greater breakdown of the segregation.
It may indeed have rolled out the same if the same groups were selected

robmatic

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I never said I agreed with wither poll, just showing another poll that had a greater breakdown of the segregation.
It may indeed have rolled out the same if the same groups were selected

It may have a 'greater breakdown' of the segregation but only at one specific age range (the two years from 16-17) and a ridiculously small sample.

I am not yet sure why the ages 16 & 17 are massively more significant than the ages 18 & 19 etc...

CLAPTON

SNP seem to have about 42,000 members
assuming the Scottish electorate is about 5 million that means that over 99% of Scottish voters aren't members of the SNP

ruggedtoast

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yes, obviously.

I mean, I just saw it on the news and felt it was somewhat related to this discussion.

Pretty significant really that the SNP have doubled their member base in 4 days I thought.

But obviously I'm just saying it as I'm now their number one fan.

What is it with you and nationalism Graham?

First it's UKIP and now the SNP.

What are you up to? What's your manifesto?

mayonnaise

ruggedtoast wrote: »

What is it with you and nationalism Graham?

First it's UKIP and now the SNP.

What are you up to? What's your manifesto?

Graham just likes a good bandwagon.
First he was sick of the scottish independance (sic) thing.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'd like to look at how many of us are sick of the scottish independance thing. Secondly, I'd like to ask how many of us were sympathtic at the start, but are now kinda wishing Scotland would just go independant?
Bored bored bored of the thing.

Then a poll giving 'Yes' a lead came along, so Graham decided to be sick of UK politics instead.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm not a scot either, but are not many of us sick to death of politics and the games played in the UK? ....
The Scot's have a chance to leave all this behind. They may not be able to forsee the future as an independant country, but hell, wouldn't many of us like to think we could give it a go and attempt to take back what we once had in the UK?.....
I wish the Scots the absolute best for having the courage in their conviction to do something different.

Graham_Devon

CLAPTON wrote: »

SNP seem to have about 42,000 members
assuming the Scottish electorate is about 5 million that means that over 99% of Scottish voters aren't members of the SNP

Same with all parties.

Labour has a membership base of 190,000.

Tories 134,000.

Of course, both those parties will attract people from across the UK population, not just the Scottish population. So in those terms, the membership base of the SNP is huge compared to the main two parties.

As for the other posts questioning me and having a pop because I happen to have posted an inconvinient truth in the middle of a "the nationialists are failing" party.... I just find it interesting how one single party has thrown the entire political system upside down.

IveSeenTheLight

robmatic wrote: »

It may have a 'greater breakdown' of the segregation but only at one specific age range (the two years from 16-17) and a ridiculously small sample.

I am not yet sure why the ages 16 & 17 are massively more significant than the ages 18 & 19 etc...

I don't see it being only at one specific age range.

The YouGov, bulks together the 25 - 39 (15 years) and the 40-59 (20 years), whilst the Lord Ashcroft breaks these down into equal 10 year chunks i.e. 25 - 34; 35 - 44; 45 - 54 & 55 - 64.

In particular the 25 - 65 age groups weights it more heavily towards older voters in the Yougov poll as opposed to the Lord Ashcroft poll.

Lets be clear though, Yes managed 45% of the vote, whist No garnered 55% of the vote.

We all accept that, but if we are to go into analysis, it certainly appears that there is a difference in voting preferential through the ages