Economists Urge Scotland to Vote No......

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Lets be clear though, Yes managed 45% of the vote, whist No garnered 55% of the vote.

While 600,000 people abstained.

and Salmond literally had no plan B.

The chapters closed and the world moves on.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Pretty significant really that the SNP have doubled their member base in 4 days I thought.

Great. A bunch of people have signalled that they support a political party in much the same way they support their local football club. A nationalist organisation too - double great. Maybe they found themselves aroused by all the flag waving.

noodle_doodle

How funny is this? -->

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-pollsters-predicted-yes-win-1-3551440

"According to the Record, the Yes campaign contacted a number of journalists around 10pm on Thursday with details of a planned victory speech by First Minister Alex Salmond."

brightened my day :-p

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

As a follow on to the interesting social segment breakdown provided by YouGov, this confirms Yes tended to have most support in the poorer and less educated communities on average.

Cardew

Given the SNP's claims that the bright financial future for an independent Scotland was largely based on the revenue from North Sea oil, have the SNP made any comment now North Sea crude is around $60 a barrel?


Posted on the 'other' thread for balance!

scotsbob

$60 a barrel for crude, that's an increase of 35% compared to 5 years ago, tripled in price in the last 20 years

Just keeps going up and up.

Thrugelmir

scotsbob wrote: »

$60 a barrel for crude, that's an increase of 35% compared to 5 years ago, tripled in price in the last 20 years

Just keeps going up and up.

Independence was based on $115 a barrel and oil accounting for 20% of Government income.

Scotland would be in the same boat as Putin is now.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Independence was based on $115 a barrel and oil accounting for 20% of Government income.

Scotland would be in the same boat as Putin is now.

No, Scotland would have still been part of the UK until March 2016. Lets see what oil prices are doing then and then perhaps revisit this question. But there's no point at this moment in time. Scotland even with a Yes vote.. would still have been in the UK for a while.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, Scotland would have still been part of the UK until March 2016. Lets see what oil prices are doing then and then perhaps revisit this question. But there's no point at this moment in time. Scotland even with a Yes vote.. would still have been in the UK for a while.

Given that the referendum said 'no', the date of March 2016 is of no significance whatsoever. So we might as well consider the hypothetical effect of what a $60 oil price has on the finances of a hypothetically independent Scotland now, as opposed to waiting for some point in the future.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Independence was based on $115 a barrel and oil accounting for 20% of Government income.

Scotland would be in the same boat as Putin is now.

Pretty much yes.

I'm sure I made the point somewhere during the long-running debates on the subject, that an independent Scotland would be at the mercy of any 'downward trend' in oil prices.

Generali

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/59831914-6514-11e4-91b1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3MBzFFRtx

A fall in the price of Brent crude from $110 to $82 would have cost the Scottish treasury £8,700,000,000 which is a cut in revenues of about £1,000/head. As the fall in price since then has been a further $23, that implies falling revenues of about a further £700/head. Taxes or borrowing would need to rise by £1700 per man, woman and child in Scotland to make up the difference.

However, realistically taxes can only rise on the workers which is a little more than 55% of the population so in reality, each worker, on average, would need to find an extra £3,000+ per year one way or another.

That's the problem of having a tax system reliant on the value of a single, highly volatile commodity. That is what Mr Putin is in the process of finding out too.