London Has Peaked

Bantex_2

chucknorris wrote: »

Not really, there's a lot more to buying than merely meeting the monthly rent, otherwise a lot more would buy. Also some may pay the rent with benefits.

Not that much difference, in fact a mortgage can be a lot more flexible than rent. have a bit of an emergency and miss 3 months repayments the bank will work something out over the next 20 years, a landlord will most likely evict you.

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

That link shows supply decreased last month in N4! :rotfl:

Similarly for N9, supply for both August and September was less than July! :T

Regardless, that's not evidence, that's cherry-picking. Rightmove's aggregated "average properties per estate agent" confirms that in fact supply has been decreasing since June.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/national-trends-21

HAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
pathetic!

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

Haringey up 3.9% in September, not bad at all.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/london-trends-21

the old cherry picking trick

Jason74

chucknorris wrote: »

'Everyone' there I suggest lies your misunderstanding of the system, not 'everyone' will be able to afford to buy, although there will be those that think that they should be able to, hence long bloody threads about why prices are falling or peaked (when they aren't) or should be, blah, blah. blah.

To be fair to Bubble, I think that perhaps his posting style is getting in the way of his argument, which is a shame. While I can only claim to know what is going on in a small area on the London fringe, that small part of town does seem to have peaked (for now at least).

Taking the SE25 Postcode (the one with highest volume in what I would see as my local market) Supply is up 50% or so since January, and if we're talking just houses, rather than flats, has more than doubled. Overall prices are also down a little, although as of June, they were still rising for terraced houses (I suspect that terraced houses are falling too now, but that's just an observation which may prove false) . The rightmove link for overall trends is shown below

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=SE25

Certainly some of the individual actions in the market back up the idea that the market in that area has peaked. A quick look at the house below, which has gone under offer from an asking price of £525k gives an indication of what was going on three or four Months ago. We don't know what it went for of course, but it didn't sit on the market for too long, so it's probably a fair assumption that it went fairly close to asking

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46006801.html

The link below is probably the closest you're going to get to an exact equivalent. It's in the same group of roads, and considered part of the same "estate" (they're both in a group of roads known as the "Norhryst Estate") locally. The £525k one is a semi rather than end of Terrace, but this one has a Garage which the £525k house does not. They're similar in size and condition, yet this one still hasn't found a buyer, despite having the price reduced to £450k.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32390340.html

It does all add up to a market that has peaked, and looks to be dropping back after a frenzy has burned out. I wouldn't claim that this is representative of London as a whole (it might be, but I don't know enough either way to comment), and I'm certainly not suggesting that we're about to see a crash. But based on what I'm seeing locally (and the evidence above), the idea that "London has peaked" (for now) doesn't seem too far fetched.

System

It's all a bit short term for me, most areas "peak" every year before Christmas.

padington

Jason74 wrote: »

To be fair to Bubble, I think that perhaps his posting style is getting in the way of his argument, which is a shame. While I can only claim to know what is going on in a small area on the London fringe, that small part of town does seem to have peaked (for now at least).

Taking the SE25 Postcode (the one with highest volume in what I would see as my local market) Supply is up 50% or so since January, and if we're talking just houses, rather than flats, has more than doubled. Overall prices are also down a little, although as of June, they were still rising for terraced houses (I suspect that terraced houses are falling too now, but that's just an observation which may prove false) . The rightmove link for overall trends is shown below

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=SE25

Certainly some of the individual actions in the market back up the idea that the market in that area has peaked. A quick look at the house below, which has gone under offer from an asking price of £525k gives an indication of what was going on three or four Months ago. We don't know what it went for of course, but it didn't sit on the market for too long, so it's probably a fair assumption that it went fairly close to asking

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46006801.html

The link below is probably the closest you're going to get to an exact equivalent. It's in the same group of roads, and considered part of the same "estate" (they're both in a group of roads known as the "Norhryst Estate") locally. The £525k one is a semi rather than end of Terrace, but this one has a Garage which the £525k house does not. They're similar in size and condition, yet this one still hasn't found a buyer, despite having the price reduced to £450k.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32390340.html

It does all add up to a market that has peaked, and looks to be dropping back after a frenzy has burned out. I wouldn't claim that this is representative of London as a whole (it might be, but I don't know enough either way to comment), and I'm certainly not suggesting that we're about to see a crash. But based on what I'm seeing locally (and the evidence above), the idea that "London has peaked" (for now) doesn't seem too far fetched.

Things are looking quite rosy is you read this right move September overview ...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/overview-20

chucknorris

Bantex wrote: »

Not that much difference, in fact a mortgage can be a lot more flexible than rent. have a bit of an emergency and miss 3 months repayments the bank will work something out over the next 20 years, a landlord will most likely evict you.

I think that you misunderstood (mainly my fault with a typo, I meant to say mortgage not rent, now corrected). When I said there is a lot more to buying than meeting the monthly mortgage (rent was a typo) I was referring to having the initial capital (deposit, fees etc.).

chucknorris

Jason74 wrote: »

To be fair to Bubble, I think that perhaps his posting style is getting in the way of his argument, which is a shame. While I can only claim to know what is going on in a small area on the London fringe, that small part of town does seem to have peaked (for now at least).

There will always be numerous mini peaks, they are meaningless, a meaningful 'peak' is something like late the late 80's or 2007/early 2008 when those peaks remained for a years.

lisyloo

I agree chuck that on their own, a small "mini peak" is meaningless.
However if it turns into a long term trend then it's meaningful.
We simply don't know this yet, but as a potential buyer I'm not feeling under massive pressure to rush.

MobileSaver

Joeskeppi wrote: »

It's all a bit short term for me, most areas "peak" every year before Christmas.

I've been waiting for someone to point this out.

Bubble's main argument is that supply "bottomed out" last December therefore the end of the world is nigh. What he doesn't seem to realise is that supply pretty much always bottoms out over Christmas and New Year, every year without fail. :rotfl: