London Has Peaked

chucknorris

[QUOTE=lisyloo;66779714
The tube are now so full that sometimes there is little compassion for anyone who chose to be pregnant or ill.
I was feeling feint last week - and somone offered me a set on the tube that was promptly nicked
Soon you'll need to be at the upper end of physical endurance to travel on uk public transport.

Yes I'm whinging - but I do feel a little better now - thankyou :-)[/QUOTE]

I remember when I first lived in London in 1990 I thought that the tube was great, but when I moved out (to Surrey) 15 years later the tube (and trains from Clapham Junction) was the bane of my life. I probably would have moved out earlier if it wasn't for switching to cycling to work for the last few years.

lukeh23

lisyloo wrote: »

+interest rate hikes
I'm with you luke.
In my case there are other factors involved (work contract, HMRC tax break for temp accom for 2 years, mortgage barred etc.) but the election has to be a big risk.

I agree that options need to be considered.
I believe it's getting to that point now and that's possibly why house prices have stalled. Up until now I've found no-one in agreement, but surely it gets to the point where you may as well go and sell ice-creams on the beach.

The tube are now so full that sometimes there is little compassion for anyone who chose to be pregnant or ill.
I was feeling feint last week - and somone offered me a set on the tube that was promptly nicked
Soon you'll need to be at the upper end of physical endurance to travel on uk public transport.

Yes I'm whinging - but I do feel a little better now - thankyou :-)

Of course interest rates as well' how could i forget.

I really feel for you doing that commute. I have friends that do this. They see there kids for about an hour a day due to leaving at 6am and getting home at 7pm.

Something has to give, and i feel a lot more people are looking at the situation with the same perception as us. I am just not going to buy a place which has gone up by five digits, just because its a house (despite it not being improved at all or in a decent area).

I am in a pickle though and cannot remain rentng. I have small kids, with one at school now, but they are young enough that we can uproot and move without any drama, so that is becoming more an option each day.

I am also a tech worker, so a lot of companies are now happy for me to be anywhere, as long as i can fire up my work vpn connection. I can only imagine how bad the brain drain must be in london.

Selling ice creams on a beach sounds nice as well.

wotsthat

lukeh23 wrote: »

I am also a tech worker, so a lot of companies are now happy for me to be anywhere, as long as i can fire up my work vpn connection. I can only imagine how bad the brain drain must be in london.

Out of interest why don't you just move?

How long have you been thinking something 'has to give'? And when it does give what exactly are you expecting? Say you could buy the cheapest 3 bed in Fleet for £200k instead of £250k does it really help? It would still be the cheapest 3 bed in the area - there's a reason for that.

It's the London disease - lots of moaning about prices but a massive queue of people waiting to buy in.

padington

I love london, I've lived here all my life and it's never been better than it is right now. It enjoys the most freedom, the best people and the finest cultural activities than in any other city in the known universe. If you've been priced out that must suck but do you seriously expect the best city on earth to be cheap to buy ?

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

I love london, I've lived here all my life and it's never been better than it is right now. It enjoys the most freedom, the best people and the finest cultural activities than in any other city in the known universe. If you've been priced out that must suck but do you seriously expect the best city on earth to be cheap to buy ?

for once i agree with padington

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

He hasn't got an argument.

London peaked in April apparently. Bubble told us this late August but is unable to explain what 'peak' means (I was told not to presume this meant selling price). He's also unable to demonstrate how the thing he's measuring has changed since April.

He owns the metric, the method and the verification.

I don't know what London prices are going to do but it should now be clear that a) prices didn't peak in April and b) bubble isn't any better at interpreting information than anyone else (worse by the looks of it).

I like people who seem to be able to accurately predict future events and are able to articulate their logic. Bubble has done neither.

Nothing I've seen changes my view that timing a house purchase is a mugs game. If prices fall after purchase then you've still got the house you wanted but if they rise you could be priced out. That risk vs reward is too skewed for me. I'll just keep buying when I want to.

did you actually view any london properties in the run up to april?
the madness that was present then is definitely not evident now.
you need to look beyond the LR figures.

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

did you actually view any london properties in the run up to april?
the madness that was present then is definitely not evident now.
you need to look beyond the LR figures.

Did you go to the open day yesterday for this one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-48537845.html

What is your opinion of this house?

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

what did i say that is wrong about the fourth quarter?

You stated:

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

fourth quarter:
question: where is the post autumn bounce?
answer: its not there because the london market peaked several months ago.

It is nonsense to assert why anything may not have happened in the fourth quarter when the fourth quarter hasn't actually happened yet. We're still only 19 days into it.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i said the peak was april, not the first quarter.

You seem to be having trouble keeping track of your own imaginings:

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

first quarter 2014:
prime london peaked

You, of course, have also said it peaked in April. Both are wrong though.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

what is sad is your inability to separate reality from the numbers on your excel spread sheet.

The numbers are a record of the actual amounts the houses sold for and when they sold. The numbers I am referring to are a record of reality. I don't find my understanding of this simple fact particularly sad. What reality are you referring to exactly? It appears to be one in that exists purely your head.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

did you actually view any london properties in the run up to april?
the madness that was present then is definitely not evident now.
you need to look beyond the LR figures.

The Land Registry records prices, not madness. How are you measuring madness? How can we be sure that there is less madness since April compared to before it? Do we just trust you on that? Can you imagine why people wouldn't be inclined to trust what someone like you was saying without evidence?

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

You stated:


It is nonsense to assert why anything may not have happened in the fourth quarter when the fourth quarter hasn't actually happened yet. We're still only 19 days into it.



You seem to be having trouble keeping track of your own imaginings:


You, of course, have also said it peaked in April. Both are wrong though.



The numbers are a record of the actual amounts the houses sold for and when they sold. The numbers I am referring to are a record of reality. I don't find my understanding of this simple fact particularly sad. What reality are you referring to exactly? It appears to be one in that exists purely your head.



The Land Registry records prices, not madness. How are you measuring madness? How can we be sure that there is less madness since April compared to before it? Do we just trust you on that? Can you imagine why people wouldn't be inclined to trust what someone like you was saying without evidence?

like i said, you lost all credibility with your assertion that the LR figures have a two week time lag.
you also seem to believe that london and prime london are one and the same.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

Did you go to the open day yesterday for this one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-48537845.html

What is your opinion of this house?

i haven't been to a viewing since early may.
looks decent.
tottenham hale is a bit of a pain if you commute during the peak, though.
i reckon this would've been around £275k october last year and would have achieved £400k around april after a bomad bidding frenzy.