London Has Peaked

Jason74

chucknorris wrote: »

There will always be numerous mini peaks, they are meaningless, a meaningful 'peak' is something like late the late 80's or 2007/early 2008 when those peaks remained for a years.

This is a fair comment. I personally think that what I was describing is more significant than just being a "mini peak". My "for now" comment was simply an acknowledgement that it's highly likely that there will be a point in the future where prices will be higher than they are today.

In my area, I would be surprised if prices were meaningfully higher than they are today at any point in the next year or two. Hometrack talked a couple of Months ago about the London market operating in an 18-24 Month "mini cycle", and suggested that June / July was likely to be the top of this one.

Based on what I'm seeing on the ground, that sounds about right to me in terms of my own local area, but I'm certainly not arrogant enough to be stating that view as fact, especially with so many things looking as uncertain as they do now . The market has a habbit of making people who do such a thing look very silly.

chucknorris

Jason74 wrote: »

This is a fair comment. I personally think that what I was describing is more significant than just being a "mini peak". My "for now" comment was simply an acknowledgement that it's highly likely that there will be a point in the future where prices will be higher than they are today.

In my area, I would be surprised if prices were meaningfully higher than they are today at any point in the next year or two. Hometrack talked a couple of Months ago about the London market operating in an 18-24 Month "mini cycle", and suggested that June / July was likely to be the top of this one.

Based on what I'm seeing on the ground, that sounds about right to me in terms of my own local area, but I'm certainly not arrogant enough to be stating that view as fact, especially with so many things looking as uncertain as they do now . The market has a habbit of making people who do such a thing look very silly.

Nobody knows what house prices will do (apart from bubbles of course) so we are just guessing. My guess is that London prices will kick the can down the road not doing much for 1-2 years then will go up (and it might be a mini surge like last time, which really caught me out).

Generali

Mallotum_X wrote: »

So rather than attack why not set out clearly your assertions?

If you are so sure you are correct then why not present the information clearly and concisely.

Or is it all based on a handful of asking price changes on rightmove?

Because the only thing (s)he has is having a go at other posters. It's the internet version of a drunk in the doorway of a London church shouting abuse at passers by.

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

Things are looking quite rosy is you read this right move September overview ...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/overview-20

a business that profits from HPI telling people that house prices will rise.
the october figures will be interesting. usually around +5%, last october was nigh on +10%.

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

I've been waiting for someone to point this out.

Bubble's main argument is that supply "bottomed out" last December therefore the end of the world is nigh. What he doesn't seem to realise is that supply pretty much always bottoms out over Christmas and New Year, every year without fail. :rotfl:

we're almost at december again and supply is still building up.
what is significant is that the number of new listings is declining but the overall supply is still increasing. this suggests that houses are not selling hence over 25% of entries (for houses) are having to cut their asking price.

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

There will always be numerous mini peaks, they are meaningless, a meaningful 'peak' is something like late the late 80's or 2007/early 2008 when those peaks remained for a years.

yes, it could be a mini peak
however
prices are now beyond the reach of most people
lending is appears to have levelled out
demand is falling away
foreign money appears to be slowing
supply is building up (lots on new builds in the london pipeline too)
only government support can prop it up now
and i doubt that will happen between now and the election

matt1234

Guys, I have not read this thread in full but London has not peaked. This is just a bit of natural cooling before we see increases again.

I was at the exhibition for Battersea Power station phase 3 launch and was told privately that 13,000 people had booked sales appointments for the 500 or so flats that are being released next week. I had got there on the first day fairly early and even I have only been given an appointment on the second day of release, meaning it is unlikely I will be able to get anything under £1 million.

Local wages mean nothing any more in London. London property is now a gloabl investment commodity (Not that it wasn't before, but this has really crystalised in the last 5 years)

Edit: If you're bothered enough, you can see from my past posts that I firmly belived prices would come down. But to still believe that now you would have to be stupid or in complete denial.

wotsthat

Jason74 wrote: »

To be fair to Bubble, I think that perhaps his posting style is getting in the way of his argument, which is a shame.

He hasn't got an argument.

London peaked in April apparently. Bubble told us this late August but is unable to explain what 'peak' means (I was told not to presume this meant selling price). He's also unable to demonstrate how the thing he's measuring has changed since April.

He owns the metric, the method and the verification.

I don't know what London prices are going to do but it should now be clear that a) prices didn't peak in April and b) bubble isn't any better at interpreting information than anyone else (worse by the looks of it).

I like people who seem to be able to accurately predict future events and are able to articulate their logic. Bubble has done neither.

Nothing I've seen changes my view that timing a house purchase is a mugs game. If prices fall after purchase then you've still got the house you wanted but if they rise you could be priced out. That risk vs reward is too skewed for me. I'll just keep buying when I want to.

lukeh23

If London was contained it would not be so dire as to the fact it creeps out to the south east.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-43982260.html

The above is the cheapest 3 bed in my area.

As a buyer i am out until the election. With deflation, mmr, a potential labor/libdem government targeting buy to let, its not worth me currently courting a run down ex council house that stinks of cat p1ss, for 250 grand.

If its no better, then migration needs to be considered.

lisyloo

As a buyer i am out until the election. With deflation, mmr, a potential labor/libdem government targeting buy to let

+interest rate hikes
I'm with you luke.
In my case there are other factors involved (work contract, HMRC tax break for temp accom for 2 years, mortgage barred etc.) but the election has to be a big risk.

then migration needs to be considered

I agree that options need to be considered.
I believe it's getting to that point now and that's possibly why house prices have stalled. Up until now I've found no-one in agreement, but surely it gets to the point where you may as well go and sell ice-creams on the beach.

The tube are now so full that sometimes there is little compassion for anyone who chose to be pregnant or ill.
I was feeling feint last week - and somone offered me a set on the tube that was promptly nicked
Soon you'll need to be at the upper end of physical endurance to travel on uk public transport.

Yes I'm whinging - but I do feel a little better now - thankyou :-)