London Has Peaked

Mallotum_X

So rather than attack why not set out clearly your assertions?

If you are so sure you are correct then why not present the information clearly and concisely.

Or is it all based on a handful of asking price changes on rightmove?

Bubble_and_Squeak

Mallotum_X wrote: »

So rather than attack why not set out clearly your assertions?

If you are so sure you are correct then why not present the information clearly and concisely.

Or is it all based on a handful of asking price changes on rightmove?

the first exhibit i call on is supply.
in all but 3 of the 16 london postcodes i'm watching supply bottomed out in december. asking prices proceeded to accelerate alongside increasing supply for all of the first quarter. i witnessed first hand desperate bomads squaring up to each other waving their (parents) blank cheque books menacingly at greedy money grabbing estate agents. ok, i made that last bit up but you get the picture. then demand started to wane. i called april as the peak because of mmr but i really should have gone for may. houses started taking longer to shift and percentage of asking price achieved started to fall away around this time (can't remember exact dates but i'm sure someone will chip in and put me straight if i'm wrong)

Mallotum_X

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the first exhibit i call on is supply.
in all but 3 of the 16 london postcodes i'm watching supply bottomed out in december. asking prices proceeded to accelerate alongside increasing supply for all of the first quarter. i witnessed first hand desperate bomads squaring up to each other waving their (parents) blank cheque books menacingly at greedy money grabbing estate agents. ok, i made that last bit up but you get the picture. then demand started to wane. i called april as the peak because of mmr but i really should have gone for may. houses started taking longer to shift and percentage of asking price achieved started to fall away around this time (can't remember exact dates but i'm sure someone will chip in and put me straight if i'm wrong)

This is why people are attacking your assertions. Hearsay and made up stories are not exactly reliable.

In a small part of London one persons view is that supply dried up, that's not independent evidence or fully representative of London as a whole.

I don't doubt that heat is coming out of the London market, that is pretty clear after what appeared to be quite a sizeable spring bounce.

Personally I suspect that the rate of growth in London prices probably peaked at or about April but not prices themselves, most likely caused by an increase in supply by people who saw the activity and added their homes to the market. That may have cooled the growth, but has it actually put things into decline? I'm not convinced and the various indices are not showing a decline either.

MobileSaver

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the first exhibit i call on is supply.
in all but 3 of the 16 london postcodes i'm watching supply bottomed out in december. a

That's an assertion. Where's the evidence?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

MobileSaver wrote: »

That's an assertion. Where's the evidence?

I don't think bubbles can comprehend the significant differences between an assertion and evidence.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the first exhibit i call on is supply.
in all but 3 of the 16 london postcodes i'm watching supply bottomed out in december. asking prices proceeded to accelerate alongside increasing supply for all of the first quarter. i witnessed first hand desperate bomads squaring up to each other waving their (parents) blank cheque books menacingly at greedy money grabbing estate agents. ok, i made that last bit up but you get the picture. then demand started to wane. i called april as the peak because of mmr but i really should have gone for may. houses started taking longer to shift and percentage of asking price achieved started to fall away around this time (can't remember exact dates but i'm sure someone will chip in and put me straight if i'm wrong)

...assertion, assertion, anecdotal, narrative, rightmove link, repeat

Bubble_and_Squeak

Mallotum_X wrote: »

This is why people are attacking your assertions. Hearsay and made up stories are not exactly reliable.

In a small part of London one persons view is that supply dried up, that's not independent evidence or fully representative of London as a whole.

I don't doubt that heat is coming out of the London market, that is pretty clear after what appeared to be quite a sizeable spring bounce.

Personally I suspect that the rate of growth in London prices probably peaked at or about April but not prices themselves, most likely caused by an increase in supply by people who saw the activity and added their homes to the market. That may have cooled the growth, but has it actually put things into decline? I'm not convinced and the various indices are not showing a decline either.

supply has increased- that is a fact
percentage of asking price achieved has decreased- that is a fact
time on the market has increased- that is a fact
where are the made up stories and hearsay of which you speak?

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

That's an assertion. Where's the evidence?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area.html

N4, N8, N9, N13, N14, N15, N17, N18, N22, E4, E7, E10, E11, E12, E15, E17

Mallotum_X

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

supply has increased- that is a fact
percentage of asking price achieved has decreased- that is a fact
time on the market has increased- that is a fact
where are the made up stories and hearsay of which you speak?

Post 644 where to which i replied where you made a comment about what you had observed without evidence - so hearsay.

Also in post 644 where you made story up re cheque book waving.

You keep referring things as Fact without anything other than your assertion that this is so.

Bubble_and_Squeak

Mallotum_X wrote: »

Post 644 where to which i replied where you made a comment about what you had observed without evidence - so hearsay.

Also in post 644 where you made story up re cheque book waving.

You keep referring things as Fact without anything other than your assertion that this is so.

ok, i included an anecdote and some creative writing (which i clearly labeled as such) for levity
doesn't change the following facts:
supply has increased
percentage of asking price achieved has decreased
time on the market has increased