London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

You weren't talking about a peak in Foxton's share price, Countrywide's share price, time on the market, Rightmove or mortgage lending.

You, presumably, were talking about an April peak in selling prices so you should be to tell me what London prices were then and, using the same measure, demonstrate they'd fallen. It's the middle of October and you're still waffling and using assertions as evidence.

presumably being the operative word.
we can't rely on your beloved LR figures because they are incomplete and have a nebulous time lag factor. they don't include newbuilds and some properties i've viewed have never appeared on LR.
share prices indicate where the market thinks the profits of a company are going over the course of the next year. the market thinks estate agency is not a good business to be in this year.
asking prices indicate where the market is here and now. asking prices peaked in may.
time on the market is an indicator of how supply and demand are balanced. increasing time on the market inevitably leads to prices reductions- as demonstrated by falling asking prices.

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

As ever, your post is simply factually incorrect.



Um, no, you are wrong. Low point was January, supply increased until June 2014 and has been decreasing since then.

Rightmove average stock per estate agent



Um, no, you are wrong. London prices continued to rise after 2014 Q1 so obviously cannot have "peaked."

Office for National Statistics



Erm, so they went up in June, down in July and August and up again in September... and therefore according to you they "peaked" in Q2?

If so then on the same basis I'm calling that they "bottomed out" in 2013 Q4 and so the only way now can be up, you'd better buy quick before you are completely priced out of the market.



I and others have provided indisputable evidence contradicting your assertions. Please provide verifiable evidence if you dispute this.

um, no, you misread the title of the thread.
read it again and do your rightmove search again.

um, no asking prices peaked in may.

um, same as above.

you have provided nothing but misinterpretations.

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

sorry danny you're a very capable statistician but you lost all credibility with your assertion that the LR figures have a time lag of two weeks.

Firstly, and once again, my name is not "danny". Secondly, I am not a statistician, you are just apparently so poor at statistics that you appear to think the basics are advanced. Thirdly, I made no such assertion. I asserted that they have no time lag to the sold date, and that exchange is typically close to completion. Your suggestion that the market is indefinably defuse is the non-credible one.

Additionally, That you make things up (e.g. the comments about the fourth quarter this year), that you continually restate things that are simply not true (e.g. that London peaked in April/the first quarter), and that you ignore the facts and merits of statements in favour of ad hominem comments about who is saying them (e.g. accusing me of lacking credibility but not actually demonstrating the inaccuracy of what I am saying) strips you of your credibility.

I pondered earlier in this thread if there was anything that would prompt you to actually re-evaluate your fallaciously drawn conclusions. I see now that there isn't. It's sad really. Or at least it would be if it was only yourself you were lying to.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

presumably being the operative word.
we can't rely on your beloved LR figures because they are incomplete and have a nebulous time lag factor. they don't include newbuilds and some properties i've viewed have never appeared on LR.
share prices indicate where the market thinks the profits of a company are going over the course of the next year. the market thinks estate agency is not a good business to be in this year.
asking prices indicate where the market is here and now. asking prices peaked in may.
time on the market is an indicator of how supply and demand are balanced. increasing time on the market inevitably leads to prices reductions- as demonstrated by falling asking prices.

You don't have a clue. You're insulating yourself from reality. Must be a protective mechanism - whenever you buy you'll be able to kid yourself you timed it perfect.

MobileSaver

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

read it again and do your rightmove search again.

you have provided nothing but misinterpretations.

I provided facts. Please provide verifiable evidence that supports your assertions.

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

Firstly, and once again, my name is not "danny". Secondly, I am not a statistician, you are just apparently so poor at statistics that you appear to think the basics are advanced. Thirdly, I made no such assertion. I asserted that they have no time lag to the sold date, and that exchange is typically close to completion. Your suggestion that the market is indefinably defuse is the non-credible one.

Additionally, That you make things up (e.g. the comments about the fourth quarter this year), that you continually restate things that are simply not true (e.g. that London peaked in April/the first quarter), and that you ignore the facts and merits of statements in favour of ad hominem comments about who is saying them (e.g. accusing me of lacking credibility but not actually demonstrating the inaccuracy of what I am saying) strips you of your credibility.

I pondered earlier in this thread if there was anything that would prompt you to actually re-evaluate your fallaciously drawn conclusions. I see now that there isn't. It's sad really. Or at least it would be if it was only yourself you were lying to.

what did i say that is wrong about the fourth quarter?

i said the peak was april, not the first quarter.

what is sad is your inability to separate reality from the numbers on your excel spread sheet.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

You don't have a clue. You're insulating yourself from reality. Must be a protective mechanism - whenever you buy you'll be able to kid yourself you timed it perfect.

you're the one who hasn't got a clue
the market has turned and you're still on denial

Bubble_and_Squeak

MobileSaver wrote: »

I provided facts. Please provide verifiable evidence that supports your assertions.

you provided facts to a different question
this is because the facts to the correct question provide answers you don't want to hear

MobileSaver

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

we can't rely on your beloved LR figures because

You do not want to rely on LR figures because they prove how idiotically wrong you have been time and time again.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

this is because the facts to the correct question provide answers you don't want to hear

Please provide these facts.

Bubble_and_Squeak

this is a classic example of the mentality of the bulls on this site

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46243741.html

fails to sell at an open day on saturday, despite a last minute £50,000 price cut
what do you do in such a situation?
put the price back up and try with another agency

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32690766.html