London Has Peaked

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

A little like Bubble you have the inside track but can't back up your assertion with data - it's all anecdotal and based on people that form your circle.

Do you believe that the "data" in the article linked to is sound and reflects the reality in Edinburgh?

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Do you believe that the "data" in the article linked to is sound and reflects the reality in Edinburgh?

I try not to take anything at face value. However there comes a point when some people turn from a healthy cynic to an unhealthy one. You crossed the line a while ago.

I only need to go on Rightmove to see what houses are up for and what they've sold for to see the folly of the last two or three decades you've spent renting whilst apparently having the means to buy (allegedly having already been an owner occupier in the early nineties).

Clearly your situation has much much more to do with factors other than a view on house prices to lead you down this path but maybe you've lost sight of why you've been saving. Can't take it with you mate.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

quite, but i think you misread the title of the thread.
now that you can't deny london prices have peaked you're resorting to cheap shots.

A £60k cheap shot.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

A £60k cheap shot.

very funny
i'm glad to see that you've finally conceded that london has peaked, though
it took you long enough to cotton on

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

very funny
i'm glad to see that you've finally conceded that london has peaked, though
it took you long enough to cotton on

I haven't conceded anything. You still can't explain how you're measuring house prices to show a) prices in April and b) changes since then.

To be honest you should've been able to prove April as a peak when this thread started if it was that obvious. After all you started this thread nearly 4 months after the end of April.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

I haven't conceded anything. You still can't explain how you're measuring house prices to show a) prices in April and b) changes since then.

To be honest you should've been able to prove April as a peak when this thread started if it was that obvious. After all you started this thread nearly 4 months after the end of April.

december 2013:
low point of supply. supply increasing ever since.

first quarter 2014:
prime london peaked, as did the share price of foxtons and country wide.

second quarter:
asking prices peaked, as did the percentage of the asking price achieved and demand. also, time on the market bottomed out.

third quarter:
mortgage lending falling away.

fourth quarter:
question: where is the post autumn bounce?
answer: its not there because the london market peaked several months ago.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

december 2013:
low point of supply. supply increasing ever since.

first quarter 2014:
prime london peaked, as did the share price of foxtons and country wide.

second quarter:
asking prices peaked, as did the percentage of the asking price achieved and demand. also, time on the market bottomed out.

third quarter:
mortgage lending falling away.

fourth quarter:
question: where is the post autumn bounce?
answer: its not there because the london market peaked several months ago.

You weren't talking about a peak in Foxton's share price, Countrywide's share price, time on the market, Rightmove or mortgage lending.

You, presumably, were talking about an April peak in selling prices so you should be to tell me what London prices were then and, using the same measure, demonstrate they'd fallen. It's the middle of October and you're still waffling and using assertions as evidence.

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

first quarter 2014:
prime london peaked, ... and country wide.

No, it simply did not. Average sold prices UK wide, and in London, and in inner London, and in E17, and in E15 have all been higher in the months since the first quarter. There was no overall peak in house prices in April, and no overall peak in house prices in the first quarter of 2014.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

third quarter:
mortgage lending falling away.

Yet the available sold data for the third quarter of 2014 actually indicates a significant rise in average sale price.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

fourth quarter:
question: where is the post autumn bounce?
answer: its not there because the london market peaked several months ago.

We are 16 days into the fourth quarter of 2014 ... you are literally imagining things then stating them as fact.

***

Actual average sale prices for various regions and sub regions by month for 2014 (rather than imaginings):

Are you really going to sit there and say that it peaked in the first quarter when the record clearly shows it did not? Are you really also going to make implications about the market in the third quarter based on mortgage lending without checking if that actually had the affect you assumed it would? Are you seriously going to talk about the fourth quarter in the past tense when it hasn't actually happened yet? Are you that bad a liar?

MobileSaver

As ever, your post is simply factually incorrect.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

december 2013:
low point of supply. supply increasing ever since.

Um, no, you are wrong. Low point was January, supply increased until June 2014 and has been decreasing since then.

Rightmove average stock per estate agent

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

first quarter 2014:
prime london peaked,

Um, no, you are wrong. London prices continued to rise after 2014 Q1 so obviously cannot have "peaked."

Office for National Statistics

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

second quarter:
asking prices peaked,

Erm, so they went up in June, down in July and August and up again in September... and therefore according to you they "peaked" in Q2?

If so then on the same basis I'm calling that they "bottomed out" in 2013 Q4 and so the only way now can be up, you'd better buy quick before you are completely priced out of the market.

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

its not there because the london market peaked several months ago.

I and others have provided indisputable evidence contradicting your assertions. Please provide verifiable evidence if you dispute this.

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

No, it simply did not. Average sold prices UK wide, and in London, and in inner London, and in E17, and in E15 have all been higher in the months since the first quarter. There was no overall peak in house prices in April, and no overall peak in house prices in the first quarter of 2014.



Yet the available sold data for the third quarter of 2014 actually indicates a significant rise in average sale price.



We are 16 days into the fourth quarter of 2014 ... you are literally imagining things then stating them as fact.

***

Actual average sale prices for various regions and sub regions by month for 2014 (rather than imaginings):

Are you really going to sit there and say that it peaked in the first quarter when the record clearly shows it did not? Are you really also going to make implications about the market in the third quarter based on mortgage lending without checking if that actually had the affect you assumed it would? Are you seriously going to talk about the fourth quarter in the past tense when it hasn't actually happened yet? Are you that bad a liar?

sorry danny you're a very capable statistician but you lost all credibility with your assertion that the LR figures have a time lag of two weeks.