London Has Peaked

padington

Rightmove says most comprehensive study ever undertaken points to london Prices increasing by 32.5 % over the next five years ...

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/10/rightmove-house-prices-rise-30-per-cent-five-years-outside-london

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

Rightmove says most comprehensive study ever undertaken points to london Prices increasing by 32.5 % over the next five years ...

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/10/rightmove-house-prices-rise-30-per-cent-five-years-outside-london

do they say anything about where they think the money will come from to fund a 32.5% increase in property prices?

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

It would be if the time series was a measure of a parameter from a single deterministic source, like if you were following the sale price of a single house. This would hold true if houses were perfectly uniform in value too, as you could be confident that if one sold for some amount then all the others were worth that too.

Fact is they are not though, and as it turns out, your simplistic impression doesn't hold true for house sales en mass because different houses have different inherent relative values. To consider the movement of house prices you must consider the movement of the distribution of house prices. The peak is represented by the highest point in the moving average of multiple sales, not by the single highest sale as you seem to think.

It's possible for a house at the top end of the distribution of values to sell for some amount and then be followed by one that is at the bottom end of the distribution to sell for some smaller amount, but for the average to still have increased in the meantime.

The reason your assertions about the peak are wrong is that you are trying to interpret a series of random points from a shifting distribution as if they are not distributed. As if the currently listed property has the same inherent value as the one sold before it. We know that different properties have different prices, therefore one must consider the distributive element. Yet you do not.

I fully expect you to choose to ignore that your impressions are wrong, despite having your mistakes pointed out to you. I also expect that nothing, no matter how rational or logical, will incite you to acknowledge your mistakes, and that rather than reconsider the conclusions you have drawn you will either ignore or wilfully misunderstand that your methodology is flawed.

your skills as a statistician are impressive, i'll give you that much.
is the upward trajectory still present when inflation is taken into account?

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

your skills as a statistician are impressive, i'll give you that much.
is the upward trajectory still present when inflation is taken into account?

Why don't you download the inflation indices and work that out for yourself. It'd be healthy for you to actually do some actual fact finding rather than just making things up as you go along.

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

do they say anything about where they think the money will come from to fund a 32.5% increase in property prices?

Do your research, read the study.

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

Why don't you download the inflation indices and work that out for yourself. It'd be healthy for you to actually do some actual fact finding rather than just making things up as you go along.

na, its all pretty meaningless in the real world.
robert mcnamara thought he could win the vietnam war by number crunching

Bubble_and_Squeak

padington wrote: »

Do your research, read the study.

i take it thats a no

danothy

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

na, its all pretty meaningless in the real world.
robert mcnamara thought he could win the vietnam war by number crunching

Then why bother asking? Was it in the hope that you could move the goalposts again and still kid yourself into believing that you've actually got something right, even if it is only through guesswork?

Thrugelmir

adding nearly £100,000 to local prices – while Luton, Brighton and Swindon will not be far behind.

Swindon has a diverse range of employers. However wages will never support such an increase.

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

Then why bother asking? Was it in the hope that you could move the goalposts again and still kid yourself into believing that you've actually got something right, even if it is only through guesswork?

because i thought you might know the answer