London Has Peaked

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

tkane wrote: »

In all honesty, are you seeing prices going down in your part of London? I.e. Manor Park/Forest Gate/Stratford/Leyton etc.

These areas have seen robust demand in recent months as buyers look for better value.

How can you tell people that they were lucky they didn't buy last year when prices and demand are up significantly?

Bubbles is invested now!! He'll probably delude himself forever until he finally morphs into Crashy.

Once he morphs into crashy, he'll hate anyone who buys property, he'll constantly post about tulips, debt junkies & hpi addicts, I hope he's able to choose a different path but at the moment it's looking like a dead cert.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

I've said this to you before and I'll say it again, you can have as many negative months in a year as you want, as long as the year on year figure is positive, then I'm happy. I don't care what particular months that the equity increases, as long as it does so, in fact I don't care what particular year either as long as it has increased at the point of selling.

I think your strategy is more suited to tracker funds than property TBH.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I think your strategy is more suited to tracker funds than property TBH.

It works for both, it has certainly worked big style for me in property, but I don't invest in property any more, and have not since 2008, and my next move will be selling, not buying. For no other reason than making sure that the equity is spent before death.


EDIT: The difference for me between property and shares is the liquidity, amount of input required and the manageability of the CGT, all better with shares IMO. But I would not have made so much profit from shares that I did with property in the past, but I am in different circumstances now, hence my current preference going forward being for shares.

Jason74

tad1984 wrote: »

As a first time buyer, currently looking for a place in London, this is all a bit intimidating.

Ultimately, you have to do what you think is best. There's extreme arguments being put forward here on both sides of the fence, and you have to be careful of paying too much attention to any of them. Personally, I'd be particularly wary of being influenced by anyhing Crashy Time says, as he's got a pretty extreme anti property owner agenda (the usr name kind of says it all really). But, there is imho a very real downside risk for London property in the short term, which some posters on here wrongly disregard. But that's just my view . . .there are some very smart people here and elsewhere who disagree with me on that.

Basically, anyone who says that they know what property prices will do is imho a fool or an outright liar. We all have our own views, and the difficult thing at the moment is that conflicting information means you can actually make a reasonably convincing case for almost any outcome.

For me, it comes down to one simple question. Can you afford to buy something that you would be happy to live in for a reasonably long period (5-10 years). If you can, then the decision for me if I was in your shoes would be a fairly straightforward one (but that's just my view). While nothing is certain, history suggests that you're unlikely to lose out over a 10 year period, and at the end of it, you're almost half way to not having housing costs to pay anymore (based on a 25 year mortgage). There are some ludicrously cheap long term fixes available if long term rates are a worry, and if unexpected circumstances take you to another part of the country, you're unlikely to have a problem renting out anything in London and coveringmost of your costs.

If you can't find something that you'r be happy living in for those kind of timescales, then I would find the decision more complex. If you're buying something to sell it in two or three years time, you're effectively gambling that the market wont fall significantly in that time. Historically, that gamble would have been a winning bet most of the time. But that's no consolation if you make it at one of the few points it would be a losing one, and imho there's probably more downside risk out there today than at most other times. But, that's just my view, there are intelligent people here who believe that prices next year will be higher than today, and higher still a year later etc. etc. regardless of those factors.

If it was me, I think I'd take the plunge unless I couldn't find something I'd be even remotely satisfied with, or was planning leave London for good in the next couple of years. History says the chances of losing out long term are slim, and if the decision proves the wrong one short term, there are plenty of ways of mitigating that (long term fixed rates, renting property out etc.).

But that's just me. Ultimately, you have to do what you think is right, as you're the one who knows all of your circumstances, and has to live with the decision you make. Ultimately none of us can or should advise you imho. I've just given my own thoughts based on when I was in a similar position. Only you can make the decision as to what to do.

padington

It's never been less intimidating if you ask me. You can lock a really low interest rate in for many many years and you know how much you could sublet if you needed to. So in relation to renting you have really really clear alternative path.

Also I doubt you will find many people who will argue that in ten years your London property will be less sought after or worth less.

The Only question is , is this the time to make the jump, before the election or after or in two years time ? That one no one knows, that's for sure.

However if you ask me, London up on average 7% for the next four or five years or so.

.... And 7% is all compound interest needs to double every ten years.

Conrad

Jason74 wrote: »

But, there is imho a very real downside risk for London property in the short term,

Prices will keep rising in an environment of super cheap fixed rates, 260,000 p/a net new souls arriving largely concentrated in the south, Britain's safe haven status and an economy trending comparatively well.


If you were Russian or Egyptian, London is a far safer more straight forward bet than just about anywhere else on Earth. People trust English law and know we won't hit them with an unexpected unfair exit penalty in the way they do in many nations which make taking proceeds out of country very hard.


In terms of buy to let, it makes sense to buy now using long term fixed rate cheap money.


I was very bearish from about 2005 (unduly so it turns out), but now we're in a period of quite long term HPI.


People love property and get great satisfaction from slowly nurturing their nest eggs. Few would have the same love for numbers on a share trading screen.

Bubble_and_Squeak

as usual, jason74 licks it

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

as usual, jason74 licks it

how's property bee looking today???

Generali

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

as usual, jason74 licks it

How does it taste? I think we should be told.

mayonnaise

ONS, December 2014
YoY : + 9.8%
MoM : + 0.7%

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hpi/house-price-index/december-2014/stb-december-2014.html

•House prices continue to increase strongly across the majority of the UK, with prices in London again showing the highest growth.

:beer: