London Has Peaked

mayonnaise

Mallotum_X wrote: »

The crash is apparently beautiful..

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/203300-the-crash-is-beautiful/

Looks like a wind-up thread to me.

Seriously, I am massively massively chuffed to see such inspiring regular posters like Nowhere, avenger, Wurzel, long time lurking and others posting on my thread.
You're my heroes

But then again, with the HPC crowd, you never know ....

Jason74

padington wrote: »

2014 saw a mad increase in price, we're having a normal pre-election head wind which considering the given relative buoyancy we're seeing (in my opinion) is suggesting a strong after election surge.

Watch the new lab / con coalition happily trade off no mansion tax for no euro referendum and given all the other serendipity, 2015 could end up as disappointing for the crashists as any of the last five years has been.

Anyone notice how boris Johnson waded into boots when they took an off shore pot shot at Milliband on tax ? ... The deal is done me thinks. Even lib dens will get an invite, so labour can sell the national unity card for the sake of the country and not lose too much votes getting into bed with the Tories. It will be the rare time a public threesome is expedient.

Expect a review of council tax and a radical review of our tax rules in relation to global institutions, together with a attempted global treaty on the issue, which may go nowhere. Also expect a much more moderate cut in government spending relative to what the Tories are suggesting ( in knowledge it will never happen but allows them the 'told you so' option).

Also expect UKIP and the Greens to get gangbanged from all sides.

All fair points, but ultimately I disagree with you on two counts. Firstly, I don't think the election is having much impact on the market this time around. It's just not really registering with people at the moment, and I don't think there will be many people holding off a decision until after the election. Perhaps at the top end it's a bit different due to the "mansion tax" issue, but I really don't think that the impending election is having any real impact on people looking to buy a place to live in Walthamstow or Streatham (for example).

Secondly, I just don't see a Con-Lab coalition as even remotely possible. The leadership of neither party would be able to hold their own parties together through that kind of arrangement, and the arguments about who takes what post would wreck any kind of discussions before they even start, especially if the result is close between the two parties.

And if it did happen, it really would be the end of the current form of politics in the UK. The "they're all the same" voices would get louder than ever, and small parties would make huge capital. We've seen what's happened Lib Dem support as people effectively said "I didn't vote Lib Dem to help the tories into power". Imagine the reaction of Labour voters to their votes helping Cameron stay PM. Or of Tory voters putting Milliband into No. 10.

No, that just wont happen imho. Assuming that the Tory support doesn't increase in the weeks leading up to the election giving them a small majority (a very plausable scenario) , the most likely outcome is a "1974 scenario". By that I mean that the election produces a result that makes effective government impossible (and incidentally, 1974 is our only "normal times" precedent for the possibility of a Lab Con coalition and that option wasn't seriously considered), and results in another election within a year or so, probably still resulting in an weak and unstable Government (as happened after 1974).

While I'm not convinced that the election is having much impact on the market, that crystalised sense of political uncertainty quite posibly would have, and it wouldn't be a positive one. So personally I don't see a "post election surge". I think we're currently in "business as usual" mode in the market, and a stability generating result will simply see that continue. But an instability generating result is quite likely this time around, and the impact of that canonly be negative.

Of course, ultimately we're both just making an educated guess based on what we see, so it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. I'm personally fortunate in that I have little personal stake in the outcome either way, and the level of uncertainty means I'm rather glad about that !

danothy

Jason74 wrote: »

To be fair, I'd be interested to see what the figure is now relative to August.

*

Jason74 wrote: »

Bubble fundamental point was that the market has reached a peak for this cycle (or at least for a reasonable time). While April was clearly early, I'm not sure he's too wrong in the principle.

Figures above are monthly averages of the raw figures, not seasonally or inflation adjusted. The question, I suppose, is whether or not that is a seasonal bump in the middle, or if it can really be thought of as a 'peak' in terms of sentiment/actual value?

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

did you just develop self awareness?

I thought one of us ought to.

tkane

Jason74 wrote: »

....

It was the threat of interest rates hikes and the election coupled with mortgage tightening brought on my MMR that slowed things down.

Interest rate hikes are off the radar for a while, the election looks like a Conservative win of some sort, and MMR will either be scrapped or watered down.

So expect prices to rise post election.

There was a statistic out a few weeks ago that showed house prices have always gone up after a general election.

lisyloo

if that deflation takes hold

CPI figures are annually based. So when we get to 11 months from now don't we actually risk higher inflation?

I really can't see it taking hold. We know it's only oil and food that are going down in price, so I can see people spending more not less.

mayonnaise

Pension freedom coming in April will have a much bigger impact than any election result IMO.

tkane

lisyloo wrote: »

CPI figures are annually based. So when we get to 11 months from now don't we actually risk higher inflation?

I really can't see it taking hold. We know it's only oil and food that are going down in price, so I can see people spending more not less.

Oil is a massive cost for most manufactured goods. The price of oil feeds into all goods, not just petrol at the pumps.

If the central banks don't think deflation could take hold, they wouldn't be falling over themselves to cut rates like they are.

Jonbvn

danothy wrote: »

*

The number of transactions have dropped off a cliff.:eek:

lisyloo

The price of oil feeds into all goods

Do you think those savings will be passsed on to consumers?
Or will hard pressed businesses use the savings in other ways?