London Has Peaked

danothy

Jonbvn wrote: »

The number of transactions have dropped off a cliff.:eek:

Interesting observation. I wonder if the number of transactions will remain so comparatively low in the final two months of 2014 after they have all actually been reported to the Land Registry.

tkane

lisyloo wrote: »

Do you think those savings will be passsed on to consumers?
Or will hard pressed businesses use the savings in other ways?

Large corporations actually have healthy balance sheets and are not exactly 'hard pressed.'

But to answer your question, businesses can do what they like and they may choose to cut prices for consumers, increase wages for their employees or increase dividends for their shareholders.

Political pressure is on the side of increasing wages.

padington

Jason74 wrote: »

All fair points, but ultimately I disagree with you on two counts. Firstly, I don't think the election is having much impact on the market this time around. It's just not really registering with people at the moment, and I don't think there will be many people holding off a decision until after the election. Perhaps at the top end it's a bit different due to the "mansion tax" issue, but I really don't think that the impending election is having any real impact on people looking to buy a place to live in Walthamstow or Streatham (for example).

Secondly, I just don't see a Con-Lab coalition as even remotely possible. The leadership of neither party would be able to hold their own parties together through that kind of arrangement, and the arguments about who takes what post would wreck any kind of discussions before they even start, especially if the result is close between the two parties.

And if it did happen, it really would be the end of the current form of politics in the UK. The "they're all the same" voices would get louder than ever, and small parties would make huge capital. We've seen what's happened Lib Dem support as people effectively said "I didn't vote Lib Dem to help the tories into power". Imagine the reaction of Labour voters to their votes helping Cameron stay PM. Or of Tory voters putting Milliband into No. 10.

No, that just wont happen imho. Assuming that the Tory support doesn't increase in the weeks leading up to the election giving them a small majority (a very plausable scenario) , the most likely outcome is a "1974 scenario". By that I mean that the election produces a result that makes effective government impossible (and incidentally, 1974 is our only "normal times" precedent for the possibility of a Lab Con coalition and that option wasn't seriously considered), and results in another election within a year or so, probably still resulting in an weak and unstable Government (as happened after 1974).

While I'm not convinced that the election is having much impact on the market, that crystalised sense of political uncertainty quite posibly would have, and it wouldn't be a positive one. So personally I don't see a "post election surge". I think we're currently in "business as usual" mode in the market, and a stability generating result will simply see that continue. But an instability generating result is quite likely this time around, and the impact of that canonly be negative.

Of course, ultimately we're both just making an educated guess based on what we see, so it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. I'm personally fortunate in that I have little personal stake in the outcome either way, and the level of uncertainty means I'm rather glad about that !

From what I understand, Labour have been pressing hard behind closed doors to become new coalition partners with the tories and liberals. Watch this space. Business would prefer a moderate 'national unity' government rather than the fringe 'crazies' getting a hand on the wheel and with all three parties whipping the mp's, it could actually easily be done with only moderate policies being put forward.

Regards to strategical long term growth of each party, since when did any of them ever think much further than winning the next election ?

mobfant

padington wrote: »

From what I understand, Labour have been pressing hard behind closed doors to become new coalition partners with the tories and liberals. Watch this space. Business would prefer a moderate 'national unity' government rather than the fringe 'crazies' getting a hand on the wheel and with all three parties whipping the mp's, it could actually easily be done with only moderate policies being put forward.

Regards to strategical long term growth of each party, since when did any of them ever think much further than winning the next election ?

From where do you understand that?

cells

lisyloo wrote: »

Do you think thos will be passsed on to consumers?
Or will hard pressed businesses use the savings in other ways?

Oil is not that big a business cost.

in the UK it represents about 1.2% of GDP most of which are for cars and planes

padington

mobfant wrote: »

From where do you understand that?

A friend close to the powers that be. The concept of a 'Grand coalition' or 'unity government' has been discussed by pundits at length. The maths support the possible outcome.

Also given that both parties have policies that might upset the economy but have been forged from and for party politics only - a path that can negate these policies will probably find the least resistance externally.

Look out for calls for politicians to 'Put the interests of the country above themselves' and start 'working together' like 'real statesmen'.

For Boris Johnson could it be an opportunity to step into the similar constitutional shoes as his much admired war PM ? Will the queens past experience prove useful should another unique coming together prove necessary ? Would David Milliband be called upon in some way should the country require it ?

Bubble_and_Squeak

danothy wrote: »

*



Figures above are monthly averages of the raw figures, not seasonally or inflation adjusted. The question, I suppose, is whether or not that is a seasonal bump in the middle, or if it can really be thought of as a 'peak' in terms of sentiment/actual value?

....YAY!
DANNYS BACK!
are you as good with opinion polls as you are with house price stats?
got any charts for the election?

padington

cells wrote: »

Oil is not that big a business cost.

in the UK it represents about 1.2% of GDP most of which are for cars and planes

The 'cost' is hidden inside the price of imports (and the environment).

cells

padington wrote: »

The 'cost' is hidden inside the price of imports (and the environment).

nonsense

the big users of energy are heating electricity and transport which are all "local"

your imported iplod has less embedded energy than 1/100th of the energy your home uses today to keep itself warm


as for the "cost to the environment" thats more such a non statement its not worthy of my time

padington

cells wrote: »

nonsense

the big users of energy are heating electricity and transport which are all "local"

your imported iplod has less embedded energy than 1/100th of the energy your home uses today to keep itself warm


as for the "cost to the environment" thats more such a non statement its not worthy of my time

Perhaps I should have said 'partly' hidden. Perhaps you should get laid sometime ?