London Has Peaked

Jason74

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yep.

And mix adjusted average London house is up 17k from April peak. :beer:

To be fair, I'd be interested to see what the figure is now relative to August. Bubble has got a lot of stick on (and for) this thread, and in some ways his posting style does him no favours. But his fundamental point was that the market has reached a peak for this cycle (or at least for a reasonable time). While April was clearly early, I'm not sure he's too wrong in the principle.






Certainly in my part of the world, I'd say prices aren't meaningfully different from last July / August. For a while it looked like things might collapse in a big way after the summer, but then seemed to pick up again before Christmas. And in the new year, the first couple of weeks of January seemed to point to another period of high increases, but that flurry seems to have petered out now, and everything seems broadly flat again. In terms of my local market, I don't expect it to look too much different a year from now to how it does now, so in that sense it can be seen to have "peaked", albeit I don't see that being followed by the deep "trough" that some might be expecting.

Jason74

Mallotum_X wrote: »

The crash is apparently beautiful..

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/203300-the-crash-is-beautiful/

Some of the posts on that site are just beyond insane. . . . .75% off London prices across the board, really ?????. It's like that thread is populated by all the people who lost their jobs when the Iraqi ministry of information shut down

Mallotum_X

its been ages since I last looked on hpc. Ended up on by accident. The crash threads look more like wind up fake threads than real ones.

padington

Jason74 wrote: »

To be fair, I'd be interested to see what the figure is now relative to August. Bubble has got a lot of stick on (and for) this thread, and in some ways his posting style does him no favours. But his fundamental point was that the market has reached a peak for this cycle (or at least for a reasonable time). While April was clearly early, I'm not sure he's too wrong in the principle.






Certainly in my part of the world, I'd say prices aren't meaningfully different from last July / August. For a while it looked like things might collapse in a big way after the summer, but then seemed to pick up again before Christmas. And in the new year, the first couple of weeks of January seemed to point to another period of high increases, but that flurry seems to have petered out now, and everything seems broadly flat again. In terms of my local market, I don't expect it to look too much different a year from now to how it does now, so in that sense it can be seen to have "peaked", albeit I don't see that being followed by the deep "trough" that some might be expecting.

2014 saw a mad increase in price, we're having a normal pre-election head wind which considering the given relative buoyancy we're seeing (in my opinion) is suggesting a strong after election surge.

Watch the new lab / con coalition happily trade off no mansion tax for no euro referendum and given all the other serendipity, 2015 could end up as disappointing for the crashists as any of the last five years has been.

Anyone notice how boris Johnson waded into boots when they took an off shore pot shot at Milliband on tax ? ... The deal is done me thinks. Even lib dens will get an invite, so labour can sell the national unity card for the sake of the country and not lose too much votes getting into bed with the Tories. It will be the rare time a public threesome is expedient.

Expect a review of council tax and a radical review of our tax rules in relation to global institutions, together with a attempted global treaty on the issue, which may go nowhere. Also expect a much more moderate cut in government spending relative to what the Tories are suggesting ( in knowledge it will never happen but allows them the 'told you so' option).

Also expect UKIP and the Greens to get gangbanged from all sides.

wotsthat

Jason74 wrote: »

To be fair, I'd be interested to see what the figure is now relative to August. Bubble has got a lot of stick on (and for) this thread, and in some ways his posting style does him no favours. But his fundamental point was that the market has reached a peak for this cycle (or at least for a reasonable time). While April was clearly early, I'm not sure he's too wrong in the principle.

All you need to know about his fundamental theory is he's an active house hunter looking to buy before the election.

Everything else is a mixture of randomness, hope and delusion.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

All you need to know about his fundamental theory is he's an active house hunter looking to buy before the election.

Everything else is a mixture of randomness, hope and delusion.

did you just develop self awareness?

tkane

Mallotum_X wrote: »

its been ages since I last looked on hpc. Ended up on by accident. The crash threads look more like wind up fake threads than real ones.

Some of those guys spend their entire days browsing and posting on HPC.co.uk, you can't blame them for losing perspective on house prices when they are so invested in the idea that prices MUST come down.

Back in the real world, I think we will have a Conservative led government, deflation with possibly more QE if that deflation takes hold, and London house prices will show 5-10% increase on most indices this time next year.

I monitor WC1 and NW1 and North East London and I have to say I see no signs of even a cooling down in these areas (Except Walthamstow).

MFW_ASAP

Mallotum_X wrote: »

The crash is apparently beautiful..

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/203300-the-crash-is-beautiful/

Haha, brilliant!

I love the first post on the thread: "It's quite plain that we are right now in the middle of a profound and severe house price crash. It started in Q3 2014, and its epicentre is high value SOTR 'period' and new build property, mostly around nine elms and the surrounding areas.

Let's be very clear about where we are.

1. The crash may only manifest itself generally after the election. "

How can he say we're in the middle of a 'profound and severe house price crash' and then only a couple of sentences later, state that the crash 'may only manifest itself after the election'.

How can we be in the middle of something that may (or may not) start until May?

Logic isn't a strong point on that forum!

:rotfl::rotfl:

tkane

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

Haha, brilliant!

I love the first post on the thread: "It's quite plain that we are right now in the middle of a profound and severe house price crash. It started in Q3 2014, and its epicentre is high value SOTR 'period' and new build property, mostly around nine elms and the surrounding areas.

Let's be very clear about where we are.

1. The crash may only manifest itself generally after the election. "

How he say we're in the middle of a 'profound and severe house price crash' and then a couple of sentences later, state that the crash 'may only manifest itself after the election'.

Either how can we be in the middle of somthign that won't start until May?

:rotfl::rotfl:

To be fair manifest = i.e. becomes apparent/clear.

So hes saying that the crash is happening right now but it will only become obvious post election.

But he's wrong so it doesn't really matter.

chucknorris

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

Logic isn't a strong point on that forum!

Speaking of logic, I think Spock would respond with something like:

It's a crash Jim, but not as we know it, I estimate prices have increased by 8.76% over the last 12 months and have a 73.8% chance of increasing over the next 12 months.