London Has Peaked

Bubble_and_Squeak

cells wrote: »

Those that cant afford a house, will be able to rent one sharing 5 wage earners to a 3 bed flat....or it might be 10 wage earners to a 2 bed flat by then.....

Plus we are nearly half way through this 30 year period, 2001-2031 and yourself today could have asked your younger self in 2001.....young squeak, sure 1.5 million more people will come to london by 2015 but how many of them can afford it....therefore prices will not go crazy......

and we know you would have been wrong

very high prices are a very recent development
the population of london has been growing for decades but house prices have only just shot up to bubble levels

Bubble_and_Squeak

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

Is that it? That's your analysis on why you think a correction in London will occur this year?

RICS figures out today

Bubble_and_Squeak

Crashy_Time wrote: »

How many of the privately rented homes would struggle if rates increased, how many even have a mortgage? The change will come at the margins, it is a few thousand in trouble this time, then another few thousand when the next bank/B.S does this etc. etc. The mistake many BTL`ers/mortgage debtors made was that they thought the bankers were on their side.

certainly the recent entrants to BTL will become extinct
like the bloke at work who is borrowing £500k (on top of the £200k+ he owes on his main property)
his get out clause if interest rates go up is to sell the BTL

Bubble_and_Squeak

chucknorris wrote: »

Still well up year on year, but the thing is that it only really matters when you sell, interim valuations mean next to nothing for existing owners (unless the LTV ratio comes into play if remortgaging.

the old go with the annual figure when the last last 5 months have been negative gambit

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the old go with the annual figure when the last last 5 months have been negative gambit

Have they been negative?

Wi88le

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Have they been negative?

According to RICS they have for the past 5 months.

*Other indicators/surveys/indices may show different results*

chucknorris

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the old go with the annual figure when the last last 5 months have been negative gambit

I've said this to you before and I'll say it again, you can have as many negative months in a year as you want, as long as the year on year figure is positive, then I'm happy. I don't care what particular months that the equity increases, as long as it does so, in fact I don't care what particular year either as long as it has increased at the point of selling.

wotsthat

chucknorris wrote: »

I've said this to you before and I'll say it again, you can have as many negative months in a year as you want, as long as the year on year figure is positive, then I'm happy. I don't care what particular months that the equity increases, as long as it does so, in fact I don't care what particular year either as long as it has increased at the point of selling.

Once he buys he'll realise the truth of this. The only time the value of a house matters is when it is bought, sold or remortgaged.

Most of the rest of the time price changes are just to give us our fix of house price news and create fun arguments on the internet.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

alas, dear wotsit
i had almost forgotten the full extent of your madness

Madness is being in a desperate rush to buy a house before the election whilst trying to convince everyone house prices are in 'bubble territory'.

You made the usual bear list in the opening post giving all the reasons why prices have to fall/ crash/ burst. Have they all been resolved?

Maybe you're on a campaign to scare potential competition from the housing market. I can just see you telling your colleagues not to buy and then sneaking off to updatie your Property Bee spreadsheet and scouring Rightmove looking in horror as your budget now buys a two instead of three bed.

If you truly thought there was going to be any sort of decent correction you wouldn't be looking to buy. After all, like most crashers, you can rent for a song.

tom9980

The house I bought in 2009 and is now rented has gone up 22% looking at sold prices. It does not matter at all it won't be sold, the mortgage is paid off and the rental income is good it will be kept for 40 more years unless circumstances dictate a sale.

The house we bought in May 2014 might have gone up too judging by the asking price of the house down the road which is 8% higher than last years equivalent. None of this matters to me in reality, I would quite like a few years stagnation then 25% crash actually because that would suit my longer term goals perfectly.

I feel a bit sorry for bubbles now and can only advise him to scratch together a deposit and buy the best home to live in he can find and would be happy in. Predicting markets is no fun just make a decision based on the facts of the time and roll with it because us plebs have no choice.