The Economics of Ebola

Generali

An interesting piece on the politics of quarantine including involuntary quarantine:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottgottlieb/2014/08/12/if-ebola-arrives-in-america-some-controversial-tools-could-be-used-to-stop-it/

It's written about the US but could just as easily apply to the UK AFAICS.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

An interesting piece on the politics of quarantine including involuntary quarantine:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottgottlieb/2014/08/12/if-ebola-arrives-in-america-some-controversial-tools-could-be-used-to-stop-it/

It's written about the US but could just as easily apply to the UK AFAICS.

I think americans are more worried about such things - the Brits are used to putting up with whatever the govt tells them to do.

Meanwhile ground zero and more of what you expect with an out of control pandemic: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28827091

Note the 'small' suburb has 50k people of whom there is no reason that more than half won't die if testing and quarantine can not be enforced....

I love the BBC headline this week when MSF suggested the outbreak can not be contained in less than 6 months the BBC made it sound like it would be dealt with in 6 months.

I know I tend to be an alarmist but there was also a suggestion that it was expected that the outbreak would burn itself out like previous ones and now that had been reeassessed as it was in large populated well integrated areas not isolated rural areas...well I'm afraid I don't buy it that this wasn't realised 4 months ago.

vivatifosi

Update from the Beeb on economic impact of Ebola. Sierra Leone economy down 30%, Liberia and Guinea not expected to meet growth forecasts:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28865434

michaels

vivatifosi wrote: »

Update from the Beeb on economic impact of Ebola. Sierra Leone economy down 30%, Liberia and Guinea not expected to meet growth forecasts:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28865434

We also have more and more countries introducing travel bans:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28879020

vivatifosi

Prior to travel ban to South Africa yesterday I heard someone saying on the Sky African news that tourist bookings to SA were down due to Ebola, and that people needed to brush up on their geography as Sierra Leone is closer to Paris than Cape Town.

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

Prior to travel ban to South Africa yesterday I heard someone saying on the Sky African news that tourist bookings to SA were down due to Ebola, and that people needed to brush up on their geography as Sierra Leone is closer to Paris than Cape Town.

Best change my flight then. I fly in to Paris in December.

michaels

vivatifosi wrote: »

Prior to travel ban to South Africa yesterday I heard someone saying on the Sky African news that tourist bookings to SA were down due to Ebola, and that people needed to brush up on their geography as Sierra Leone is closer to Paris than Cape Town.

That would be my DW who has expressed concern despite my reassurances on the relative distances....

michaels

Keeps on getting better:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29055041

Note the increasing economic disruption hitting countries as far afield as Thailand.

I can't not believe they are having trouble getting the money and resource to fight this - I would have thought even no one else was willing to pony up, if the UK on its own had to stump up 1bn it would be worth it on a purely selfish basis let alone any moral arguments.

vivatifosi

This Ebola outbreak is so nightmarish that the fact that there is currently a second outbreak is barely making news.

Seeing the man who escaped from the clinic running down the road of the city with people all around was scary, nothing will make me want to donate to Medecins sans Frontiers than that.

Still, focusing on the positives. A vaccine is about to go into human test in the UK (to make sure that it is safe to take) and once it passes that stage it will go into testing on the public in Africa for real. Z Mapp has shown good results, even though it was used without prior trials. Yes it's too little, yes it's too late, but hopefully there's promise for the future. Plus congratulations to the Royal Free, your procedures work. And great news that William Pooley has been discharged.

michaels

BBC piece on third American infected

The window of opportunity to stop Ebola spreading widely throughout Africa and becoming a global threat for years to come is closing...

I am moving more into cash and delaying booking travel.