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The Economics of Ebola
Comments
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Oh good, confirmed transmission in Nigeria and to medical personnel - I remain surprised at the number of medical personnel affected - if it can not be treated without the doctors and nurses being at high risk of infection then it is an even bigger problem
Yep... It's frighteningly infectious in the symptomatic stage.
I think that's something like 150 infections of medical personnel so far, and 60+ deaths.
And most of them knew what they were dealing with.... So took maximum possible precautions against infection.It is somehow typical that the world is waking up and taking it seriously after the horse has bolted - £100m and maximum containment when it first broke out in a densely populated country would surely have made more sense?
Happens every time though?
A disease like this comes along every few years, kills a few hundred people in Africa, burns itself out, and the world gets complacent.
Until one day, it spreads....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Even when this first got in the news though it was already in the capital not just in an isolated community - surely even when we first discussed it in March/April it was already a very different beast?
If medical practitioners taking maximum precautions can't protect themselves then does it make sense to try to provide treatment?!I think....0 -
If medical practitioners taking maximum precautions can't protect themselves then does it make sense to try to provide treatment?!
Yes.
Treatment does save significant numbers of people who would otherwise die.
The net benefit is positive, in terms of lives lost.
But putting that aside, I don't think I would be able to refuse to treat a patient if I were a doctor in that environment.
It's what you sign up for, and in times of crisis some will die..... But that's no different to many other professions, military, police, firemen, etc.
It's the job.
You just get on with it.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Hmm - but what if fewer die simply by having a programme of mass testing and isolating any positives before they become super-infectious, leaving the doctors alive to do the testing and to treat all the other things they normally do. Isn't there a point where tryign to provide treatment becomes self defeating and actually results in a worse outcome overall?I think....0
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »LOL, in more modern times.....
The post WW1 flu was the last big one wasn't it? Tens of millions dead?
Almost 100 years ago?
My great grandmother died from that one. If the deaths in London reach 20 from Ebola. I'm going for a monster bike ride somewhere remote for a six months and see how things go.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
Isn't there a point where tryign to provide treatment becomes self defeating and actually results in a worse outcome overall?
Probably.
Various Hollywood blockbusters have pointed out the most efficient way to treat these types of outbreaks is to quarantine entire areas and leave them to die....
And if you can't secure the quarantine zone, then bomb them into oblivion.
But I don't think we're quite at that point yet.;)
I agree there may well be an outbreak of something one day where some pretty grim choices need to be made to protect the many at the expense of the few.... I just don't think this is it.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
vivatifosi wrote: »Interesting article about experimental drugs given to the two US doctors improving the symptoms
I'm pretty cynical about this. An untested, unlicensed drug being trialled in humans amidst major public hysteria.
Shares have jumped 50% in the company in a few months. Just saying.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »LOL, in more modern times.....
The post WW1 flu was the last big one wasn't it? Tens of millions dead?
Almost 100 years ago?
Though HIV/AIDS was and is a pretty big one. The real threat is not necessarily something with such a high mortality, rather something much more transmissible - i.e. airborne.
In fact, after a certain point, the higher the mortality the less likely an infection is to spread - it is self defeating to the organism.
Almost inevitably the next major global pandemic will be another influenza.0 -
In_For_A_Penny wrote: »Though HIV/AIDS was and is a pretty big one. The real threat is not necessarily something with such a high mortality, rather something much more transmissible - i.e. airborne.
In fact, after a certain point, the higher the mortality the less likely an infection is to spread - it is self defeating to the organism.
Almost inevitably the next major global pandemic will be another influenza.
In theory, but with transport so much quicker and more widespread than historically I am not sure this holds true so much any more. The evolutionary balance is based on thousands of years in which people didn't move about much and so disease outbreaks would be self limiting - suddenly (where a period of a few hundred year sis suddenly) change the ability for diseases to travel with hosts and it is much quicker than evolution can catch up via changes to immune systems.
I don't remember SARS being so infectious to medical personnel.I think....0 -
In theory, but with transport so much quicker and more widespread than historically I am not sure this holds true so much any more. The evolutionary balance is based on thousands of years in which people didn't move about much and so disease outbreaks would be self limiting - suddenly (where a period of a few hundred year sis suddenly) change the ability for diseases to travel with hosts and it is much quicker than evolution can catch up via changes to immune system
All true and is the added challange of controlling outbreaks in modern times.I don't remember SARS being so infectious to medical personnel.
SARS was actually of quite low infectivity (thankfully). It's hard to know how infectious Ebola actually is outside of central Africa. A big problem at present are the customs and fears of the local communities. It's tradition for each member of the family/tribe to embrace the body after death and the distrust of foreign medical staff is creating a resistance to changing this practice.
Also one of the main modes of transmission is via sweat which is clearly a major issue in the tropics. I suspect it's also a reason some medical staff are contracting Ebola - imagine wearing a fill exposure suit in 40 degree heat and high humidity - pretty tempting to momentarily step out of that suit!
For all these reasons I can't see it ever becoming established in developed countries.0
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