The Economics of Ebola

Generali

michaels wrote: »

WE are quite good at exponential growth on this board so lets try this for size:
Ebola deaths in August approx 1250
Ebola deaths in September approx 2500

Shall we extrapolate?


October easy 5,000
November 10,000
December 20,000


How about June 2015?

320,000

Or December 2015
20,048,000 (20 million deaths)



Or August 2016





0 (all 8 billion on the planet have already had it with 5billion plus dead)

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/11/ebola-graphics

As of November 4th, 13,268 cases and 4,960 deaths had been reported worldwide.

You're a bit ahead there michaels if you meant that an 'easy 5,000' would mean significantly more than 5,000. If you meant 'about 5,000' then you're really close.

However, the disease really doesn't seem to want to spread beyond the initial region.

UserJong_2

why is it not on the news now? was it ever really a news story?

michaels

Generali wrote: »

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/11/ebola-graphics

As of November 4th, 13,268 cases and 4,960 deaths had been reported worldwide.

You're a bit ahead there michaels if you meant that an 'easy 5,000' would mean significantly more than 5,000. If you meant 'about 5,000' then you're really close.

However, the disease really doesn't seem to want to spread beyond the initial region.

Darn the curse of straight line (exponential) extrapolation strikes again...

purch

Generali wrote: »

had been reported worldwide.

Reported, yes.

Unreported.............:eek: