The Economics of Ebola

michaels

The reality is gradually being released in a manner designed to avoid panic: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-29060239

Obviously with an exponential increase numbers can ramp up very quickly now and with health services collapsing and panic ensuing the rate of spread will speed up rather than slow down and perhaps mortality rates will increase again.

I really can't see why we haven't had an announcement that as much as necessary will be spent and all resources available will be deployed...unless it has already been concluded that it is a losing battle and the priority is to generate vaccines in time for rich countries to protect their own.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

Obviously with an exponential increase numbers can ramp up very quickly now and with health services collapsing and panic ensuing the rate of spread will speed up rather than slow down and perhaps mortality rates will increase again.

Interesting bit on that topic in the article......

But there is also a fear being raised by some virologists that Ebola may never be contained.

Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham, describes the situation as "desperate".

His concern is that the virus is being given its first major opportunity to adapt to thrive in people, due to the large number of human to human transmission of the virus during this outbreak of unprecedented scale.

Ebola is thought to come from fruit bats, humans are not its preferred host.

But like HIV and influenza, Ebola's genetic code is a strand of RNA. Think of RNA as the less stable cousin of DNA, which is where we keep out genetic information.

It means Ebola virus has a high rate of mutation and with mutation comes the possibility of adapting.

Prof Ball argues: "It is increasing exponentially and the fatality rate seems to be decreasing, but why?

"Is it better medical care, earlier intervention or is the virus adapting to humans and becoming less pathogenic? As a virologist that's what I think is happening."

There is a relationship between how deadly a virus is and how easily it spreads. Generally speaking if a virus is less likely to kill you, then you are more likely to spread it - although smallpox was a notable exemption.

Prof Ball said "it really wouldn't surprise me" if Ebola adapted, the death rate fell to around 5% and the outbreak never really ended.

"It is like HIV, which has been knocking away at human to human transmission for hundreds of years before eventually finding the right combo of beneficial mutations to spread through human populations.

michaels

The really fatal strains will only be out evolved if they are effectively less contagious because they kill more quickly once the carrier becomes infectious. With failing healthcare and collapsing public order surely all strains are likely to be passed on?

michaels

6th September -expecting about 20k cases total

8th September expecting thousands more cases just in 1 country in the next few weeks: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29115298

Will we see a vaccine before deaths are in the 10s of millions?

Why is the news worrying about ISIS, Ukraine or Scottish Independence?

michaels

It doesn't get any better:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29360484

The response remains far behind the curve and with the curve being exponential it will pretty soon be beyond any intervention anyway.

I would assume that various bodies have done the modelling and know how this is going to go so it would seem that the low level of intervention may be more about an acceptance that it is now beyond control until a vaccine is available than any attempt to penny pinch. At what point does social control break down in Liberia with a sudden explosion of the virus across borders?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Why is the news worrying about ISIS,

The news coverage speaks for itself.

michaels

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29437070


...oh and Texas, remind me how many flights there are from Texas to London every day.........

vivatifosi

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/03/bill-gates-ebola-shutting-down-healthcare-system-african-countries

Interesting interview with Bill Gates on the impact of ebola. In particular the issue of how it decimates the healthcare systems of a country, leading to an increase in more prevalent diseases such as malaria.

RMS2

PasturesNew wrote: »

It was the plague, and shortage of agricultural workers, that turned round the country when the workers finally had "the edge" over the toffs and were able to be paid decent wages etc. A defining, turnaround point for "the little man".

Not true.


https://www.marxists.org/history/england/peasants-revolt/story.htm


That's what they wanted to happen, but TPTB off the day put paid to that.


When it goes well, they rake in the money. When it goes bad, they change the law and rake in the money.


Either way, you're stuffed.

michaels

Now spreading in Spain and probably the US.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29514920

Is it too late to volunteer for those vaccine trials?