The rise of Extremism in Economically tough times

GeorgeHowell

setmefree2 wrote: »

Maybe London should become a separate City-State and then we would be 100% foreign. The new city-State could then be fully part of the EU and the rest of the country could live in the 1950s as they seem to desire. As a separate state we would have a GDP on par with Switzerland and Sweden. Separation would allow us to better run the London Economy. Right now London needs higher interest rates, our deprived areas need money diverted elsewhere in the UK.
Yes, if the rest of the UK want to go back to the 50s maybe it's time for a divorce?

We should have a full regional structure with all the regions having the autonomy Scotland will have after it rejects independence. This would go a long way towards easing some of the regional tensions :- the north/south divide, England v the rest, London v the rest etc.

CLAPTON

GeorgeHowell wrote: »

We should have a full regional structure with all the regions having the autonomy Scotland will have after it rejects independence. This would go a long way towards easing some of the regional tensions :- the north/south divide, England v the rest, London v the rest etc.

would autonomous regions have their own currency, central banks, taxation policies etc

GeorgeHowell

CLAPTON wrote: »

would autonomous regions have their own currency, central banks, taxation policies etc

No because they would then be quasi independent nations within a pooled defence and foreign affairs structure. Limited tax raising powers though, like we expect the Scots to get.

Generali

Sampong wrote: »

Very technical term that - "digital odds", makes you sound very authoritative.

I think you mean Decimal Odds.

It's a bit early to be using that market as a true indication of the likelihood of each event happening, although interestingly the shortest price supports no overall majority which could be interesting if the Tory's decide to form a pact with UKIP (and the cons are under pressure to do so).

I mean digital odds. The terms are synonymous e.g.

http://www.wbx.com/help/Content.ashx?ContentID=50144

I've won and lost enough down the years to know a fair bit about betting.

Those odds (digital, decimal or otherwise) are probably a reasonable guide from where we are. If I was to have a punt in that market I reckon a Tory majority offers the best value: the economy is on the mend and then there's the incumbency advantage too. Betfair, as a betting exchange, shows an amalgamation of many views which generally is a good predictor of the chance of an outcome. Certainty better than our space cadet friend.


UKIP are yet to win a seat in Parliament and I suspect that they won't win one next time either due to FPTP. People aren't stupid and if they want a referendum on EU membership they'll vote for the party that will be able to deliver it rather than one which won't.

CLAPTON

GeorgeHowell wrote: »

No because they would then be quasi independent nations within a pooled defence and foreign affairs structure. Limited tax raising powers though, like we expect the Scots to get.

what is a quasi independent nation? would Greece be a model?


what powers would they have then?
what tax powers? VAT, corporation tax, income tax?
could they borrow independently of the central government?

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth...

Betfair has the Tories at less than 3-1 to form a majority next General Election (3.95 using digital odds). That's hardly beyond the relm of possibility.

Clearly the Tories can't promise to hold a referendum if in a coalition (a post-election coalition is favourite at 5-4 (2.25)) as they don't know what their coalition partners would agree to.

Well indeed.

Currently the odds on a Conservative majority in the next General Election are 5/2. I don't regard those as "incredible odds", and they're not that much better than the odds on a Labour majority which appear to be in the range 7/4 to 9/4.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

a year is a long time in life, let alone politics

This time last year the polls were showing Labour 8 points ahead. We now have the polls showing Labour 1 or 2 points ahead (a position confirmed by the recent elections.) A Conservative win in 2014 is not outside the bounds of possibility. It's not like it hasn't happened before.

For example, back in 2004 we had a Labour led government. In the local elections of that year the opposition Conservatives beat Labour by a margin of 11% and beat them in the Euros by a margin of 4%. And yet, in the following year Labour won the General Election by a margin of 4%.

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

This time last year the polls were showing Labour 8 points ahead. We now have the polls showing Labour 1 or 2 points ahead (a position confirmed by the recent elections.) A Conservative win in 2014 is not outside the bounds of possibility. It's not like it hasn't happened before.

For example, back in 2004 we had a Labour led government. In the local elections of that year the opposition Conservatives beat Labour by a margin of 11% and beat them in the Euros by a margin of 4%. And yet, in the following year Labour won the General Election by a margin of 4%.

I would agree that most things are possible. Depending upon 'events', either a labour or a conservative victory are possibilities.

A year is a long time.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

This time last year the polls were showing Labour 8 points ahead. We now have the polls showing Labour 1 or 2 points ahead (a position confirmed by the recent elections.) A Conservative win in 2014 is not outside the bounds of possibility. It's not like it hasn't happened before.

For example, back in 2004 we had a Labour led government. In the local elections of that year the opposition Conservatives beat Labour by a margin of 11% and beat them in the Euros by a margin of 4%. And yet, in the following year Labour won the General Election by a margin of 4%.

Labour had some huge wins in 1981/2 and in 1984/5 yet fell to record defeats in the 83 & 87 elections.

They used to call it 'Mid-Term Blues'.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

I would agree that most things are possible. Depending upon 'events', either a labour or a conservative victory are possibilities.

A year is a long time.

Those outcomes plus a hung parliament aren't that far apart in the betting really. I reckon laying UKIP getting more than one seat will be the value bet for the next election. They might sneak in somewhere but even if they have the support they don't have the machine to get the voters out.

Hell, they couldn't even put together a manifesto for themselves last time. That's not me being anti-UKIP, more observing the difficulty of fighting against power politics. Even the Liberals (now Lib Dems) hold an advantage 100 years after Lloyd George.