Royal Mail Shares

grey_gym_sock

it's not obvious that the FTSE-100 will fall from here. i tend to agree that it looks a bit expensive - but not ridiculously so. when it's only a bit expensive (or a bit cheap), that doesn't tell you much about future returns (because it may next get a bit more expensive). only very extreme valuations provide much clue about what will happen next.

i'd be more concerned about buying a FTSE-100 tracker if you don't also have investments covering overseas markets. although the FTSE is a very international index, it is heavily slanted to the resource extraction and finance sectors.

(the USA may still have the dow jones index, but the S&P 500 index provides a much better measure of how big US stocks are doing.)

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

2010 wrote: »

It hasn`t got a built in ceiling, it could go well past the 7000 point at sometime, in fact some dealers are predicting it will beat the all time high before this Christmas.

I don`t know about dumping the 100 because you have to have some well established benchmark.
The USA sticks with the Dow Jones, yet it only contains 30 companies.

Do you have a link for the HL video?

I have looked for the video and I am now unsure if it was on HL it might have been a Questor Video - but they discussed the fact that large blue chips were in their view becoming over valued basically people going for them for yield and that time had come to look for income and growth elsewhere suggesting moving to the 250.

I have a USA tracker that tracks the S&P 500. I have a UK tracker that tracks the FTSE 250. I have nothing that tracks the FTSE 100. Maybe the FTSE250 tracker was not a wise buy as the 250 has well passed its high of the financial crisis.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

I have found it now it was on Morning Star about ETF's

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/videocenter/videoCenter.aspx?id=616848

sabretoothtigger

2010 wrote: »

We were talking about a Ftse100 tracker and I think at this stage of the cycle you would lose money if you invested where the Ftse100 it stands now.
Even with dividends you would have lost out from the peak and not to mention CHARGES, although I know some recent trackers are now below 1%.

I say FT100 because its comparable to RMG and less risk. I wasnt suggesting immediate performance but it is lower risk

RMG will be in that index soon. Also a tracker should beat cash over the long term, all these people selling up quick should have some alternative ready really

Personally I'd want the asia pacific tracker, the aussie dollar is down some and sterling up so timing is reasonable.
Better still is to invest in monthly not a lump sum but rmg was not a big lump as it turned out.

Unit price on 31/12/99 was 51p.

Current price 82p. That is a 60% increase in 14 years. Hardly a loss.

Seems about right. FTSE is really not stellar but it does pay out pretty good. Include the divs & especially if reinvested at low points and I believe FTSE has grown.
I invested 2001 at a 'high' and I didnt lose out long term

IronWolf

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Better sell out now then because the FTSE 100 obviously has an in build ceiling and it will never go above the point it was before the financial crisis.

What seems to happen is it climbs up only to be thrown back down by stupidity. The Dot Com Bubble and the financial crisis where banks etc behaved like merchant bankers.

Strange thing is the FTSE 250 has already well passed that point.

Maybe time has come to dump the 100 and start looking to the other indexes and smaller firms. Strangely enough this was the topic of a video on the HL website.

The FTSE 100 doesn't have a ceiling, but it is far less diversified than something like the S&P 500. The sectors within change drastically too, in 2000 is was tech dominating but now it is natural resources (35%) after the huge bull market from 2000 to 2008. Financials also make up about 22% of the index. So basically 55% of the index is dominated by two sectors which haven't done well over the last few years, that why it hasn't really performed well.

Minrich

Well sold my shares at £5.44 through Equiniti , the total cost of the Transaction was £9.26 , so hardly the expensive way everybody has been saying it is !

Niv

So, for someone that currently does not hold RM shares, is it worth a punt now or do you think that we are close to the peak?

sabretoothtigger

Why ask now and not when it was first available, thats the real question. If motivated by a higher price its basically a mistake. Buy monthly can avoid these price questions more or less.

Most people should be buying a ftse tracker, comfort yourself that one of the one hundred is Royal Mail and you are a stock holder who receives their dividends, etc
ie. dont overthink it

Yorksport

Niv wrote: »

So, for someone that currently does not hold RM shares, is it worth a punt now or do you think that we are close to the peak?

It must be close to a peak if not there. I wouldn't be buying now as there is no short term reason for it to go higher and the divi yield is now nothing special. But it was clearly well worth a punt at issue. Look out for the next privatisation.

2010

Yorksport wrote: »

I wouldn't be buying now as there is no short term reason for it to go higher

It will go higher in Dec when they go into the 100.