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When America sneezes the whole world crashes a cold ;)
Comments
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Indeed. Also, affordability and demand are not really represented. It would be nice to compare the same thing (the same index), or prices from two different lenders (one US, one UK), also salary information, immigration stats, and so on for the same period.
Oh God, you really wouldn't want to see that.
US house prices are, on average, HALF what they are here, but property is DOUBLE the size.
Yet again, Brits get ripped off - this time by each other!
Insane situation.
If our market was free like the US's (and no it's nothing to do with size of country, Britain has thousands of acres of usable land), we'd have twice the disposable income we do now.
Still, our economy will pay for it in the end.0 -
That HPC graph is notoriously misleading, as the x axis starts from £50K.
It seems very likely that HPI in the UK will continue to decline, and that's a good thing. But there are serious differences between the US and UK markets, the most important one being the massive over-supply of property in the US. Here, we have much lower supply, and every year, more and more households appear with immigration, divorce, and so on. As I say, that doesn't mean that there won't be a correction, but there's no compelling evidence of a massive crash -- only wishful thinking from people who unfortunately are priced out."I don't mind if a chap talks rot. But I really must draw the line at utter rot." - PG Wodehouse0 -
meanmachine wrote: »Oh God, you really wouldn't want to see that.
US house prices are, on average, HALF what they are here, but property is DOUBLE the size.
Yet again, Brits get ripped off - this time by each other!
Insane situation.
If our market was free like the US's (and no it's nothing to do with size of country, Britain has thousands of acres of usable land), we'd have twice the disposable income we do now.
Still, our economy will pay for it in the end.
In the US, the normal working man expects to be able to buy a decent house to live in and put a car on the driveway.
Currently, in the UK, very few can afford that.0 -
No i stumbled across it and just spotted how similar they are well apart from the good bit at the end.
Ive ridden coaters in many countries on 3 different continents and belive me a big @ssed drop is one of the best things know to mankind:rotfl:
Talking of roller coasters, have you rode this one?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U0 -
That HPC graph is notoriously misleading, as the x axis starts from £50K.
It seems very likely that HPI in the UK will continue to decline, and that's a good thing. But there are serious differences between the US and UK markets, the most important one being the massive over-supply of property in the US. Here, we have much lower supply, and every year, more and more households appear with immigration, divorce, and so on. As I say, that doesn't mean that there won't be a correction, but there's no compelling evidence of a massive crash -- only wishful thinking from people who unfortunately are priced out.
Spot on! If we are looking are statistics, just consider that Texas is 15 times bigger than the UK and has a third of the population.In case you hadn't already worked it out - the entire global financial system is predicated on the assumption that you're an idiot:cool:0 -
That HPC graph is notoriously misleading, as the x axis starts from £50K.
It seems very likely that HPI in the UK will continue to decline, and that's a good thing. But there are serious differences between the US and UK markets, the most important one being the massive over-supply of property in the US. Here, we have much lower supply, and every year, more and more households appear with immigration, divorce, and so on. As I say, that doesn't mean that there won't be a correction, but there's no compelling evidence of a massive crash -- only wishful thinking from people who unfortunately are priced out.
Yeah sorry i forgot america doesnt have imigration does it?
See gringo I are from Mehico!
And no divorse neither its all just stepford wives
only wishful thinking from people who unfortunately are priced out <----Thats the wrongest statement yet
I am currently paying 7.5% of my weekly wage in rent at £100 a week 90% of the rest is going in the bank building a seriously sexy deposit.
I am FAR from priced out I just aint stupid enough to pay well over the odds for somthing.
only a proper, full on, crackhead moron, would advocate such a thing if we're being honest!0 -
Yeah sorry i forgot america doesnt have imigration does it?
....And no divorse neither its all just stepford wives
only wishful thinking from people who unfortunately are priced out <----Thats the wrongest statement yet
I don't advocate buying now as we finally seem to be reaching the top of the market at last.
I just don't see any evidence for a house price crash. I see an awful lot of desire for one, particularly from the priced-out, or from people like you who think the market is overpriced, but wanting something very badly is not the same as it being a certainty to actually happen. Ask football fans on their way to the cup final which team is going to win the match, and you'll find that 90+% of them will be totally convinced that their team will win, whichever side they're on. They want it so much that they somehow just assume it's going to happen.
Please note, that I'm not being excessively bullish. Crazy HPI is a bad thing for most people. If you're not an owner, it's hard to buy, and if you are an owner it becomes very hard to trade up. In short, everyone eventually gets stuck.
Yes, the US has immigration and divorce, but its increase in housing supply is proportionately much higher relative to increase in numbers of households than is the case in the UK. Sorry, I don't have the reference to hand but I read an article about it a few months ago.
I do think that HPI will drop right down and may even go YOY negative but I don't have any reason to think that there'll be a 50 or 70% reduction in prices as some people predict. As I say, just wishful thinking."I don't mind if a chap talks rot. But I really must draw the line at utter rot." - PG Wodehouse0 -
Here's a (slightly older) graphical representation of the base US house price boom. From the OP graph, we can see that the trend is starting to reverse. The question is - how far will it go?0 -
excellent graph: it's the 'sudden' exponential growth from 1990 to today that is just astonishing (the way it just shoots up).
this has parallels with what is happening on wall street also - see my previous post in this thread
BLOODBATH IN THE EVENING THEN? :shocked: OR PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON? OR THE MORNING? OH, FORGET THIS MALARKEY!
THE KILLERS :cool:
THE PUNISHER :dance: MATURE CHEDDAR ADDICT:cool:0
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