When America sneezes the whole world crashes a cold ;)

Jonbvn

garethhr wrote: »

Here's a (slightly older) graphical representation of the base US house price boom. From the OP graph, we can see that the trend is starting to reverse. The question is - how far will it go?

So based on that graph, if you disregard inflation house prices remained static until 1997, and have double since then (until 2006). It would be interesting to see a similar graph for the UK.

I think what we tend to forget is the massive levels of inflation that have been prevalent at various times. I wondered if it considered real levels of inflation, or was it based on a BS statistic like the RPI?

Thanks for the information - extremely interesting. However, I am not sure it should be used by somebody as the basis of a house purchase.;)

PropertyGuru

I've alreay called the top of the UK house market. End of Q107 will, in hindsight be seen as the point where it 'went over the cliff'. I made that prediction in 2006.

It wont touch bottom till 2013 earliest.

free4440273

...nevertheless, there will be a great deal of pain between now and 2013...

thesaint

PropertyGuru wrote: »

I've alreay called the top of the UK house market. End of Q107 will, in hindsight be seen as the point where it 'went over the cliff'. I made that prediction in 2006.

It wont touch bottom till 2013 earliest.

Hmmm, I had to look into your prediction from 2006

downsize, put the balance in the bank, and wait for the end of Q1 2007

So you advised someone in the tail end of 2006 to sell and wait for Q1 2007, I wonder if they are quids in?

ollyshaw

nelly wrote: »

I am currently paying 7.5% of my weekly wage in rent at £100 a week 90% of the rest is going in the bank building a seriously sexy deposit.

Your are getting done there Nelly, I pay £37 per week! Some people suggest I should pay more than double this to own a worse property before I miss the boat!

Olly

pricedout_1

brasso wrote: »

That HPC graph is notoriously misleading, as the x axis starts from £50K.

It seems very likely that HPI in the UK will continue to decline, and that's a good thing. But there are serious differences between the US and UK markets, the most important one being the massive over-supply of property in the US. Here, we have much lower supply, and every year, more and more households appear with immigration, divorce, and so on. As I say, that doesn't mean that there won't be a correction, but there's no compelling evidence of a massive crash -- only wishful thinking from people who unfortunately are priced out.

But is 'supply' really the issue here. The following article from ABN AMRO explains away the 'supply' arguement and highlights 'speculation' as the real cause of overvaluation in the UK. (Germany has similar population density and size but the banks appear not to have allowed the borrowing frenzy that the UK has seen). More cause for concern is the UK being twice as overvalued than the US!! ......


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/pdf/abn-amro-home-truths-04042007.pdf

sciencegeek

nelly wrote: »

I am currently paying 7.5% of my weekly wage in rent at £100 a week 90% of the rest is going in the bank building a seriously sexy deposit.

must be quite nice to earn ~70,000 irrespective of house prices though i would imagine

nelly_2

sciencegeek wrote: »

must be quite nice to earn ~70,000 irrespective of house prices though i would imagine

Yeah it is, but I do earn it no one gives it me

Inactive

Generali wrote: »

In the US, the normal working man expects to be able to buy a decent house to live in and put a car on the driveway.

Currently, in the UK, very few can afford that.

Nor in the USA, an enormous amount of ordinary people live in Trailer Parks.:rolleyes:

prudryden

One thing you certainly don't see in the USA is the 20+ year olds having mental breakdowns because they can't buy a house. They are all quite happy renting nice flats in a block with other single guys/gals, communal swimming pool and exercise room. Buying a house doesn't even enter their mind until marriage and children. Even then, it isn't a major concern until later.