When America sneezes the whole world crashes a cold ;)

nelly_2

brasso wrote: »

Is that aimed at me?

No not really.

Theres this new class of person that has spawned sort of like the oposite to chavs. They have got all this money and aparent wealth and think thy are sucessful when the only thing they are actually sucessfull at is agreeing the extend their mortgage.

Pobby

Well I can say that I have a number of friends across the States.Everyone is telling me that the housing market is hit the buffers.Firstly the sub prime lenders are in trouble(no surprise there).Estate agents are going into forclosure,some are getting second jobs.A friend who is a mortgage broker is doing little business.

I expect to see us following over the next few months.It seems that the btl brigade are heading toward the exit as yields are now very low or indeed negative.

CB1979_2

Pobby wrote: »

Well I can say that I have a number of friends across the States.Everyone is telling me that the housing market is hit the buffers.Firstly the sub prime lenders are in trouble(no surprise there).Estate agents are going into forclosure,some are getting second jobs.A friend who is a mortgage broker is doing little business.

I expect to see us following over the next few months.It seems that the btl brigade are heading toward the exit as yields are now very low or indeed negative.

indeed because the states is exactly like the UK???

I'm sure New York prices are still just as high over there or do we discount the big cities like we do in the UK, discount London & the South East as they are ridiculously high

Generali

The US economy seems to have been remarkably resiliant to the falls in house values so far.

However, it appears that US consumers have gone from MEWing to maxing out their credit cards. Clearly not sustainable in the long term and credit card spending slowed sharply in April. Whether this is a trend or a blip remains to be seen.

I think a recession in the states has to be an odds-on likelihood. They had an inverted yield curve (where short term interest rates are higher than long term ones) until very recently which is an excellent predictor of a future recession. Add to that the maxed out consumer and bond rates increasing the i/rs that businesses and consumers actually pay and it's starting to look quite nasty out there.

Does that mean UK HPI will go into reverse? Not necessarily, but the dark clouds are going to be rolling in from the Atlantic soon.

Generali

PS As GDP growth<population growth, GDP per head is falling in the US. Not a recession as that is 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.

garethhr

Another interesting graph.

nelly_2

I thought a parabolic was that curve a plane can fly to make you weightless?

sheffield_lad

Has anyone got a graph of how much the average house price is now compared to how much it was when property price crash first started predicting a crash in 2004? I own a house I just feel sorry for the FTB who believed the drivel.

garethhr

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200...water-arms.html

ARM: Adjustable rate mortgage

After modest reflection, any disinterested observer can't help but find that accompanying table quite alARMing. It's from a recent MacroMavens report, the handiwork of the incomparable Stephanie Pomboy, whose rants and raves we've had the pleasure of occasionally sharing with you. What its blood-curdling numbers depict is that the woes of mortgage lenders are not, as so widely believed, confined to the beleaguered subprime contingent, but are casting a much larger and chillier shadow.

More specifically, the table shows all too clearly that an astounding percentage of adjustable-rate mortgages already are underwater, and it estimates how much equity would be wiped out if home values decline by 5%, 10% and 15% and translates the corresponding losses into dollars.

On the topic of Negative equity another interesting one: it looks like a 15% fall in house prices would trigger 47.8% of ARM's to enter negative equity!

Jonbvn

howee wrote: »

Has anyone got a graph of how much the average house price is now compared to how much it was when property price crash first started predicting a crash in 2004? I own a house I just feel sorry for the FTB who believed the drivel.

Oh come on! Most predictions are drivel in hindsight. Clearly you were so smart you did not believe it. insert a term of abuse here!

I am a home-owner with a mortgage. I do not see how continued HPI will benefit me, unless I suddenly want to move to the Shetlands. Please explain?