Is the stock market over heating?

veryintrigued

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Are people feeling wobbly about this downward slope?

Mixed feelings. I've investments which rely on sustained growth of the markets but I've also got an investment whose return depends on the FTSE ending each day within % bands of a 'start point'. Hence these recent 'corrections' are very welcome.

Old_Slaphead

jabba42 wrote: »

I should add this is a personal decision based on what I think will happen, basically a 10% to 20% correction by the end of Q4 this year. If I am wrong and everyone else is right then I get the booby prize.

What happens if, instead of a 10-20% short term correction, which probably won't happen because we're all expecting it, the market stagnates or drifts lower over long timespan (ie a few years).

How do you time a reentry point so's we're not sitting on cash ad nauseam ?

srcandas

Old_Slaphead wrote: »

What happens if, instead of a 10-20% short term correction, which probably won't happen because we're all expecting it, the market stagnates or drifts lower over long timespan (ie a few years).

How do you time a reentry point so's we're not sitting on cash ad nauseam ?

Yes I think you could be right. And with everyone chasing income payers pushing their prices up there will be little on offer.

Possibly people will search for new EMs, new esoteric sectors, smaller new industries/companies. If cash, property and traditional investments are at best flat then we need to search harder which may be no bad thing (as long as we avoid the scammers) :cool:

jabba42

Old_Slaphead wrote: »

What happens if, instead of a 10-20% short term correction, which probably won't happen because we're all expecting it, the market stagnates or drifts lower over long timespan (ie a few years).

How do you time a reentry point so's we're not sitting on cash ad nauseam ?

I could be wrong and here is why according to Martin Armstrong.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/25/dow-jones-industrial-market-recap/

The rally from the October 2002 low in the Dow into the October high 2007 was 60 months. We are approaching 51 months. While there is room to make a short-term correction where all the talking heads proclaim how they picked the high, we may see the US market do a 72 to 78 month bull run before a change in trend really takes place. They will give us a high by March or October 2015.The Roaring ’20s was a full 96 month bull run.


edit, forgot to add I have other tangible investments that I can take more equity in like a real estate project, luxury car showroom, internet businesses. So if it really became too much of a wait I would put it into one or all of these.

atush

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Are people feeling wobbly about this downward slope?

No.

as a regular investor over many downward slopes I'll keep investing and waiting for an upward one.

DunPin

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Are people feeling wobbly about this downward slope?

Oh lord no, anyway my main holdings (literally) on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, Bahrain Bourse and Dubai Financial Market are up. My holdings in UK companies are down today although that is to be expected with yesterday in the US and last night in Asia, I firmly believe that things will level out.

IronWolf

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Are people feeling wobbly about this downward slope?

No because I wasn't even aware of it.

The best way to keep your nerve in the market is to just forget about it and carry on. I look a lot at individual companies, its easy to do that and remain oblivious to weekly market movements.

Glastoun

According to this article, it's all pina coladas and canap!s anyway:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/06/05/uk-servicesector-pmi-idUKBRE9540BC20130605

Glen_Clark

jabba42 wrote: »

I could be wrong and here is why according to Martin Armstrong.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/25/dow-jones-industrial-market-recap/

The rally from the October 2002 low in the Dow into the October high 2007 was 60 months. We are approaching 51 months. While there is room to make a short-term correction where all the talking heads proclaim how they picked the high, we may see the US market do a 72 to 78 month bull run before a change in trend really takes place. They will give us a high by March or October 2015.The Roaring ’20s was a full 96 month bull run.


edit, forgot to add I have other tangible investments that I can take more equity in like a real estate project, luxury car showroom, internet businesses. So if it really became too much of a wait I would put it into one or all of these.

Its all different now because money printing has turned conventional economics upside down. The 'Economics' I was taught at Uni many years ago has turned out to be wrong. Today's good growth figures would normally have caused a rise in share prices (increased profits expected) Instead share prices fell (reduced money printing expected) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10100195/UK-recovery-gathers-pace-on-strong-services-data.html

marathonic

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Its all different now because money printing has turned conventional economics upside down.

I think it's gotten to the stage where, instead of funds, we should all consider investing in individual companies - those of companies that supply the Bank of England with their printers and printer ink....