Is the stock market over heating?

bowlhead99

jabba42 wrote: »

, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index plunged 3.7%.

Context is everything:




Of course, longer term context is also something



And of course each is meaningless without considering the exchange rates and inflation and other factors etc etc etc!

srcandas

But for sure it is a correction in any terms and momentum is still downward. So now the difficult decision for those who moved a bit to cash - when to jump back in?

I'm only interested in undeveloped Asia so I'm going to wait for now.

Be interesting to see what happens to those Nat res funds that are already low.

And will the pound strengthen. Seems to be making an effort this morning.

What fun this all is

Glastoun

After encountering inertial resistance at the 350 mark, this thread has finally broken through to its 36th decile, another all-time high. Momentum posting is expected to create a floor at a minimum of 370, although if stock market volatility declines then the velocity of decrease in the increase of the rate of posting will likely decrease.

Or increase.

Depending on the weather.

jabba42

srcandas wrote: »

But for sure it is a correction in any terms and momentum is still downward. So now the difficult decision for those who moved a bit to cash - when to jump back in?

I'm only interested in undeveloped Asia so I'm going to wait for now.

Be interesting to see what happens to those Nat res funds that are already low.

And will the pound strengthen. Seems to be making an effort this morning.

What fun this all is

If everyone gets selling, I am looking for 10% at least and when the die hard holders here are thinking of selling too, I think it will be time to buy .

jimjames

jabba42 wrote: »

http://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asia-stocks-fall-after-china-pmi;-nikkei-plunges-3.7-to-hit-6-week-low-248542

uring late Asian trade, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 0.1%, Australia’s ASX/200 Index ended 0.8% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index plunged 3.7%.

Some dramatic words! Plunged to 6 week low! Yes, six whole weeks!

Funny how no such word is used to describe 3.7% drop. No-one says their investment plunged 5.5% as a result of the initial charge! I know many people now go via fund supermarkets but there are still some that go direct so would lose more than that drop just by taking out their investment.

I was shredding various old documents at the weekend and found letters from fund managers in 2000, 2001 and 2003 trying to allay concerns about drops in markets and the exceptional volatility. Not so exceptional anymore but really nothing new to have markets go up and down!

Drops make much better headlines than rises so I guess that's why it causes more worry amongst investors.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

It's all just NOISE!

It seems MSE Investment area and H&L front page are the noisiest places on the planet. Some 6,000 decibels each.

Ohh and interest rates have plunged to an all time low also. I was getting 6% once on instant access. Now with no "reel em in bonuses" youll be luck to find 1%.

So the savings market has plunged over 70% the FTSE is down 0.43% as I write this.

jabba42

The thing is if you have a few more down days people start getting nervous and head for the exits. Selling starts more selling ( woooo doom and gloom).

I did not buy here and would not buy anything here.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

jabba42 wrote: »

The thing is if you have a few more down days people start getting nervous and head for the exits. Selling starts more selling ( woooo doom and gloom).

I did not buy here and would not buy anything here.

They then create buying opportunities for people serious about investing. Not fly by night gambling speculators.

srcandas

jimjames wrote: »

Some dramatic words! Plunged to 6 week low! Yes, six whole weeks!

Yes but that is only a minor part of the story. It isn't the percentage but the change of direction. The change in sentiment. The obvious illustration of the fragility of the world economy.

Look at Jabba's graph. The up runs are more than 40% the down runs also more than 40%. We are not talking 5% known costs on entry that a few idiots pay. (see hundreds of tracker posts on reducing costs ).

It's ok the major experienced investors here saying 'I'm in for the long term, I drip feed, its noise (!!!!!! ).

It isn't. It is money. If flock of sheeps jumps in and loses 40% over the next year despite all the philosophical words it will not be a pleasant experience :eek:

As it happens I don't think it is the start of a long down turn but that doesn't mean it isn't :cool:

srcandas

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

They then create buying opportunities for people serious about investing. Not fly by night gambling speculators.

Amazing what Tim can do in a few weeks