Is the stock market over heating?

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

srcandas wrote: »

Amazing what Tim can do in a few weeks

Yes I am obviously nervous about a down turn as I have invested recently. But I have also kept some cash aside to provide buying opportunities at a later bear market. Whether that is starting now I am not sure.

People who took out the PSigma Equity Income Fund at its launch suffered significant downside as it was launched at the top of the market in 2006.

gadgetmind

jabba42 wrote: »

when the die hard holders here are thinking of selling too, I think it will be time to buy.

That'll be at about the same time as we get hoverboards.

Old_Slaphead

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

People who took out the PSigma Equity Income Fund at its launch suffered significant downside as it was launched at the top of the market in 2006.

I'm not a big fan of PSI and couldn't understand why, in 2008/9, they were buying banks when everyone and his dog were bailing out.

Today's market falls are interesting given that Mondays, especially Mondays when it's also the first trading day of month, usually start off with gains.

marathonic

srcandas wrote: »

But for sure it is a correction in any terms and momentum is still downward. So now the difficult decision for those who moved a bit to cash - when to jump back in?

As soon as physically possible for me.... I'd expected my pension to be back in stocks by last Friday but, as alluded to in an earlier post by gadgetmind, it doesn't appear that pension transfers happen that quickly.

I transferred to cash on 20th after 6.5 years in 100% high-risk assets and sent of the transfer forms in an email. The advisor requested physical copies so I'm just about to post them. I'm not sure whether the transfer has begun and they want the physical copies for their records or whether they are waiting until they receive them before initiating the transfer.

I wish I could get back in today as I'm nervous sitting in cash with money I don't need for 30+ years.

gadgetmind

marathonic wrote: »

as alluded to in an earlier post by gadgetmind, it doesn't appear that pension transfers happen that quickly.

They happen with the speed of a striking slug.

grizzly1911

marathonic wrote: »

I wish I could get back in today as I'm nervous sitting in cash with money I don't need for 30+ years.

Better than not sitting in anything.

Ark_Welder

Agree or disagree with them, the quarterly investment reports from Troy are always an interesting read. October 2012 of particular interest recently, although 'new' readers might like to start from the earliest.

http://www.taml.co.uk/archive-reports/investment-reports

cepheus

....this period of QE has lead to a ‘mini Minsky moment’ in shares and bonds. This has led traders searching for higher returns to go back to the risky unregulated trades for larger returns; as Reuters recently reported this time these products are packed with QE fuelled shares and bonds rather then sub-prime mortgages and if they go awry they will again ‘punch yawning holes in the balance sheets’. A market correction following the removal of the QE crutch could provide just that stress point. Pre-2007 there were those who predicted the crisis, but they were unfashionable economists who had been marginalised by the city juggernaut. This time, for almost a year we have been hearing the same mantra:

“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis, Are the derivatives regulated? No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes.”

That was not some old Keynesian economist, but Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management...........

http://www.leftfootforward.org/2013/06/will-the-end-of-quantitative-easing-trigger-the-second-global-financial-crisis/

cepheus

This is for the US S&P



..was March 2009 the beginning of a secular bull market? Perhaps, and certainly the new nominal all-time high set at last month is a conspicuous tick mark for the optimists. But the history of market valuations suggests a cautious perspective.

The most amazing graph is this one. We did well to survive that crash in 08, assuming we have!



http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php

coastline

Think USA job creation is one of the main indicators to the direction of the world stock markets..
Early 2009 the USA started to shed jobs at a slower rate and today it is still positive around 150,000 per month...
If this monthly number goes negative I think we'll see falls all around...so far so good..