Is the stock market over heating?

Any

redbuzzard wrote: »

Oh well. It's been a good run. At least I reduced my Japan index by 50% last month, and yesterday the sale of half the remaining UK & Amercan index funds in my SIPP executed, the proceeds currently being switched into two Ruffer funds. That was the second tranche, the last one went into IP Distribution and Standard Life GARS.

Yesterday I had "buyer's remorse" and wondered if I had lost my bottle and gone too far. Now I am wondering why I hadn't the courage of my convictions and gone the whole hog.;)

Actually, I don't think this is it...yet. But we'll see if we wait:cool:

Flock of Sheep has now been proved a genius.

In, profit, out, crash.:beer:

OMG! I didn't realise that at first!! How lucky is that guy?? :eek::rotfl:
I looked at my L&G UK tracker yesterday and thought about cashing it in... it is held outside an ISA. But I didn't as I thought I will do it closer to standing order day to my H&L account and now I am kicking myself...
Wonder how quickly will the effect show?

marathonic

Any wrote: »

OMG! I didn't realise that at first!! How lucky is that guy?? :eek::rotfl:
I looked at my L&G UK tracker yesterday and thought about cashing it in... it is held outside an ISA. But I didn't as I thought I will do it closer to standing order day to my H&L account and now I am kicking myself...
Wonder how quickly will the effect show?

The problem is, how long does it take to get out of your tracker? If you decided to sell yesterday, you probably would have still been exposed to the falls.

As I said earlier in this thread, I put a request to transfer my pension fund to 100% cash last Thursday and the request was only processed at the close of business Monday. Getting back in will take a similar amount of time.

In my earlier post, I mentioned that it wasn't due to any particular wisdom that I had - just that I'm transferring pension providers and wanted to have a good idea of the transfer value - easier to do in cash funds.

So I've been out of the market for a few days and am now, roughly, breaking even on my selling price. If I wait for a turnaround, I'll miss the first few days of rises whilst my pension is being transferred and negate any falls before that.

I'll be filling in the forms today and sending them off - and hoping for some bad headlines from Europe over the weekend, considering my buy-back into the market will likely be processed on Monday or Tuesday.

Basically, even if you try to time the market, which is inadvisable (even though I took the gamble), you have the difficulty of the time taken to buy and sell funds when compared to individual shares.

Any

marathonic wrote: »

The problem is, how long does it take to get out of your tracker? If you decided to sell yesterday, you probably would have still been exposed to the falls.

Well, they say it is priced at next valuation point... Which happens every day. last time I was selling something on L&G platform in the end I got the same price as it was on when clicked the button.. but I think it was pure fluke that there was no change that day.

Everything in pensions seems to happen a lot slower... My H&L ISA change from fund to fund takes like 2-3 days and I am sure in my OH's SIPP it takes more like a week...

I wonder by how much it will move in the tracker in the space of 1 day... The whole way just like the weight of each of the shares on daily basis etc.. I guess so.

redbuzzard

Any wrote: »

I looked at my L&G UK tracker yesterday and thought about cashing it in... it is held outside an ISA. But I didn't as I thought I will do it closer to standing order day to my H&L account and now I am kicking myself...
Wonder how quickly will the effect show?

It will be in today's dealing price I expect, and the HL reported unit price will update tonight.

I usually look at the Nikkei at about 7.30am if I am waivering about my Japan index holding, so I can give HL an instruction before 8 if I want, for dealing that day before the Nikkei opens again. I didn't this morning, but I would have left it anyway. Unless it had gone up 7%!

Although the Nikkei is down 7.3, the yen is up 1.5 so that will soften it a bit!

marathonic

Any wrote: »

I wonder by how much it will move in the tracker in the space of 1 day... The whole way just like the weight of each of the shares on daily basis etc.. I guess so.

Yeah, the trackers performance is very close to the performance of the index itself (with a little error due to them not selling shares at each price-point through the day and a little lag due to charges).

Part of the reason I switched to cash is days like today - with my fund in cash, I know how much to expect to be transferred across. If I'd put the order to transfer directly for the L&G Funds to the Aegon funds in today, and add to this the potential volatility tomorrow, I wouldn't have had a clue what to get with regards to transfer value.

It's probably the wrong way to look at it because L&G have to sell the funds anyway and you're likely better to stay in the market during the transfer process. I just like to have expectations in my head before the transfer and I find it easier this way.

I was with L&G for 7 years and will likely be with Aegon for many more - so a few days isn't going to make much difference.

redbuzzard

Jegersmart wrote: »

People always underestimate risk.
J

Yes, funny that, given the well known human behaviour of attaching more significance to losses than gains.

Depends what mode the human is in I expect!

Any

marathonic wrote: »

Yeah, the trackers performance is very close to the performance of the index itself (with a little error due to them not selling shares at each price-point through the day and a little lag due to charges).

Part of the reason I switched to cash is days like today - with my fund in cash, I know how much to expect to be transferred across. If I'd put the order to transfer directly for the L&G Funds to the Aegon funds in today, and add to this the potential volatility tomorrow, I wouldn't have had a clue what to get with regards to transfer value.

It's probably the wrong way to look at it because L&G have to sell the funds anyway and you're likely better to stay in the market during the transfer process. I just like to have expectations in my head before the transfer and I find it easier this way.

I was with L&G for 7 years and will likely be with Aegon for many more - so a few days isn't going to make much difference.

Well, I am certainly not touching anything in my ISA, market goes up and down and I am in it long term.
The L&G is just £500 that I collected during the last year in little snippets of £25 here and there... (with H&L you need to invest £50 per fund and only on SO days, with L&G you can have minimum of £20 whenever).

JohnRo

Except for Japan, todays falls look remarkably similar to what we've already seen at various times throughout February, March and April. Looks like more of the same to me.

srcandas

JohnRo wrote: »

Except for Japan, todays falls look remarkably similar to what we've already seen at various times throughout February, March and April. Looks like more of the same to me.

I think that is true and it could all be back to the "up and up" by Tuesday. But it is interesting that the US negativity was based on an assessment that the withdrawal of the medicine (money printing) was a worse option than the cure (an improvement in the economy).

Just shows how little faith there is in a cure

And then the Chinese backed that up with bad production to further fuel the lack of confidence.

It seems the US, Europe/Euro, world trade all remain unfixed with no clear solution and the stock market values of the world are based purely on a "where else would I put it?" mentality. All seems very fragile to me

Glastoun

Lots of red numbers today, but the Nikkei is still higher than it was a week ago. There will still be a lot of people buying up these shares that have dropped.