An "unprecedented and historic result"

Graham_Devon

Well done UKIP. The title is how the BBC voting correspondent (I'm sure that's not his name, but he appears every voters go to the polls!) has described UKIP's results in the local elections.

UKIP are averaging 26% of the vote and have so far gained 42 seats with a lot of counting yet to undertake.

The deputy leader of the UKIP has been on the news and has accepted that some of these votes will be protest votes. He was very open about this, however, not all can be protest votes, especially as membership is also increasing.

This may....just may provide a turning point for politics itself. It may, just may, focus current politicians on sorting out the mess instead of continually kicking it into the long grass. It may, just may, focus their minds on the economic advantages, but also disadvantages of immigration.

So well done UKIP. Well deserved. Though I have to say, I didn't vote. Working weird and wonderful hours this week and couldn't go to my usual voting haunt so that was that!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Unprecedented and historic?

With support from just 23% of those who bothered to vote in local elections, in a few areas, where even UKIP admit it's mostly protest voters?

Hardly....

Lets look at the history of "protest vote" parties in the UK....

SDP/Liberals -

- At one point in late 1981, the party had an opinion poll rating of over 50%

-In the 1983 general election, the SDP/Liberal Alliance won more than 25% of the national vote

The Green party

-The Party's greatest ever success came at 1989 European Elections, where the Green Party won 2,292,695 votes and received 15% of the overall vote.

Liberal Democrats

-In the general election held on 6 May 2010, the Liberal Democrats won 23% of the vote and 57 seats in the House of Commons.

-Now heading for electoral annihilation though...

And so on to....

UKIP

-23% of the vote in the 2013 local elections, in the minority of local councils where they fielded a candidate....

UKIP has done well, but it's hardly historic and unprecedented. Seems pretty normal for a protest vote against an unpopular government to me.

But like all protest vote parties, this one is destined to fade away into oblivion soon enough.

MacMickster

At the moment, ask 100 people in the street about UKIP's policies and I suspect that most would only be able to say "Leave the EU" with the others adding "Control Immigration".

Come a general election, if UKIP still appear to have this level of support, I suspect that they will face rather more scrutiny of their other policies leading to some of their new-found support falling away.

I also think that traditional conservative voters who generally support these 2 policies of UKIP, would be reluctant to transfer their vote in any marginal seats if there was any prospect of allowing a Labour candidate to sneak through the middle.

For these reasons I would be amazed if UKIP gained a single parliamentary seat in the next general election - although they could possibly win a by-election before then.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

With support from just 26% of those who bothered to vote in local elections, where even UKIP admit it's mostly protest voters?

That's lies though.

They have not admitted that it's mostly protest votes. This was explained in my opening post.

That's how YOU want to see it. It's not what has been stated, as you make out.

As for the rest of your post, theres some merit in it. However, where things differe with UKIP is that there is a real, and ongoing issue. An issue which is only getting larger.

2 issues infact. Firstly immigration and secondly the EU. These issues are big issues. They are not going away.

This is where the UKIP differs from the SDP and the Green Party.

The Green Party simply didn't have enough substance to gain the votes. Neither did the SDP.

The UKIP have. And that substance is growing all the time, especially with the EU going the way it is.

UKIP would only die out if:

A) The EU fell apart and no longer existed.
We left the Euro
C) The problems faced by people in this country by immigration and the Euro area dissipated.

None of that is happening. It's all growing.

angrypirate

If you look at UKIP policies, they are actually more Tory than current Tory policy - policies include a return to Grammar schools and lower income taxes (not to mention leaving the EU and controlling immigration). It will be interesting to see how the Tories react to this.

PaulF81

Whatever it is perceived as, it's a swing to the right. If the cons can't get an overall majority in the next general election, they can always form a coalition with ukip. In some ways, its a boon for the conservatives who sell themselves as centre right, and as such cannot spout the bile that comes out from ukip. That doesn't mean that some of the stuff that comes from ukip isn't conservative doctrine, it is. However, to swing further right, the conservatives would risk losing the vote from their more moderate centre right base.

Just think of all those policies that have been overturned by the lib dems... a con/ukip coalition is a right wing frothers wet dream.

ILW

I truly believe that the major parties totally underestimate the frustration felt by voters around the EU and immigration issues.

ruggedtoast

This might push the Tories further right, but then they will most likely lose a similar number of moderate voters to the Lib Dems and Labour.

On two issues, Europe and immigration, UKIP are certainly blasting fault lines in the main parties, but they do not look credible as a government.

It was interesting seeing Schapps mumbling about how the government understand peoples disaffection and then listing immigration and Europe; this really shows how out of touch he is.

People are concerned about Europe and immigration but they are much more concerned about globalisation (of which these are part), and the way the rich merrily dance round all our national legislation while normal working people are hammered with enormous tax bills to fund their endeavours, while the bedrock of community and stable employment collapses around us to accommodate the mates of people who end up in Westminster.

pqrdef

ILW wrote: »

I truly believe that the major parties totally underestimate the frustration felt by voters around the EU and immigration issues.

There wouldn't be any "EU and immigration issues" without the endless stream of lies from the right-wing press.

ILW

pqrdef wrote: »

There wouldn't be any "EU and immigration issues" without the endless stream of lies from the right-wing press.

Doesn't matter where it comes from, I believe the issues have to be addressed one way or another or will just keep on simmering.

Most people would rather protect and favour their own family over and above a bunch of foreigners.

Graham_Devon

ruggedtoast wrote: »

On two issues, Europe and immigration, UKIP are certainly blasting fault lines in the main parties, but they do not look credible as a government.

Indeed.

And this is where the UKIP will be extremely powerful and useful. It's something Farage has openly stated. He did it on This Week last night infact.

His aim is to change the main 3 parties. It's to change the way that the main 3 parties are career politicians, who have never had a long term job in "the real world". His aim is to represent the people at a local level and push through reform to the main parties. His aim is to cut out the crap (his own words) and inform us of the real facts. He does this very well and leaves all 3 parties struggling on panel items such as question time.

I don't think the UKIP want power and have never ever said they do. Farage is often pushed on this question but he always says the same thing, he wants to change politics, not necessarily run it.

There are many ways this could be achieved. A coalition is one. Seats is another.

Whatever anyone says though, they ARE changing mainstream politics. Would we have the promise of a referendum without them? Almost certainly not. That promise may well be false, but that would be a death sentence for the tories. They are being cornered and they have having to change and listen to us.

Of course their aim ultimately is to leave Europe and cut down immigration. They do not, however, need to be in power to force this through. They know this and they have stated this.

So talking about them taking power and their inability to do so misses the point entirely, though may provide some comfort to some.